Area Forecast Discussion
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636 FXUS61 KPBZ 181430 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 930 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain and warm temperature will continue into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... With 9:30am update, main tweak was to drop showers from the forecast more quickly considering minimal rain coverage at the moment and that most automated locations are showing trace measurements. Previous discussion follows. Closed upper low pressure will dig across the region this morning accompanied by clouds, drizzle, and scattered showers. With weak cold advection, temperatures will not recover much from morning lows, but will still remain well above the seasonal averages. The low is progged to shift southeastward by late morning and building high pressure will help diminish showers as the day progresses. Temperatures will have a small rebound from morning readings, as weak cold advection continues. Dry with relatively mild temperatures tonight as a mid level ridge begins to build across the region. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry and mild weather will continue Thursday under mid level ridge, before a closed low over the Central Plains opens and lifts northeast for Friday. This will bring a round of rain and continued mild temperatures. Heights will then rise again for Saturday as this system exits, with a dry and mild start for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models differ on timing and placement of a strong upper low that will develop over the Southern Plains and move northeast Sunday into early next week. Using a general model blend for the system brings period of rain Sunday into Tuesday with temperatures between 10-15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Degraded conditions with MVFR, to IFR cigs will persist into tonight as deep low pressure crosses the region. Forecast soundings indicate that wind could gust from 15 to 20kts until building sfc high pressure relaxes the pressure gradient later today. Thursday will feature general VFR with high pressure over the area. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely again as low pressure develops toward the Great Lakes by Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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