Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251806 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 206 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXITING FOR THE MOST PART MID AFTERNOON...AND WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR ENVELOPING THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. QUITE MILD AS TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST POPS BEFORE 12Z ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HERE SHOWING PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT THE NAM IS PRESENTING. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WARM ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO READINGS WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT RAIN EXITING NORTHEAST I-80 CORRIDOR WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM KZZV AROUND 09Z TO KLBE BY 14Z THURSDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE TURNING DIMINISHING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN COLD ADVECTION. VFR HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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