Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 272109 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 509 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A DEPARTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO START TO SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS LOWER LAYER RH VALUES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS SUCH THAT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE NORM BY MORNING. THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A DECENT BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRIDAY. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD BASES RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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