Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161303 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 803 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow showers will taper off later today as high pressure builds in. The high should maintain mainly dry and warmer weather this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Scattered to numerous snow showers under upper troughing and cold NW flow should begin to taper off later this morning as surface high pressure builds in. Maintained the Winter Weather Advisory through 10AM for the ridges, though additional accumulations should be light. After a clearing trend this afternoon and evening, mid level clouds are expected to increase in warm advection. Highs today should be around 10 degrees below average, with near seasonal low temperatures tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad area of high pressure will build in Friday, bringing much quieter weather for the weekend. Passing mid-level moisture could result in some clouds Friday, but otherwise all signs point to temperatures warming quickly. Strong warm advection will push Friday highs about 10 degrees above average, and even warmer for Saturday. By Saturday afternoon a few locations may be just a few degrees off record highs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A shortwave crossing the Tennessee Valley will temporarily knock down the ridging pattern over the eastern U.S., but most of the precipitation is still expected to fall to the south. Some light rain is still possible in areas south of Pittsburgh on Saturday night. High pressure and ridging aloft then return for Sunday and Monday, with continued well-above normal temperatures. A shearing shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday may succeed in dampening the upper ridge and creating more of a zonal flow pattern. This would lead to more unsettled conditions from Tuesday on and bring some minor precipitation chances. Still, temperatures will cool only slightly and remain well above climatology through Thursday. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Snow showers will continue for several hours past 12Z today, with VFR or high-end MVFR conditions prevailing in the mean. Brief dips to IFR are still possible, especially north of I-80 and along the ridges. Coverage of snow showers will wane later this morning as upper level low pressure starts to pull away. Ceilings will rise to VFR levels at all terminals later this afternoon. Northwest winds may gust to 20 knots at times through the afternoon, before diminishing this evening. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ511>514. && $$

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