Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220937 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 537 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide cooler and drier conditions through the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Minimal changes were made with the 5:30am forecast update. Previous discussion follows. As a mid-level trough exits the region to the east, some lingering clouds have remained across the forecast area, but the clouds should depart by the afternoon. With high pressure dominating the central United States, northwesterly flow is expected across the region. Not only will this bring cooler temperatures, it will bring drier air. Instead of dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, dewpoints will only be in the 50s. Clear skies and light winds will allow for the coolest night in at least two weeks, with all locations dropping into the 50s and isolated areas dipping into the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As high pressure eases east, winds will shift from the northwest to the southwest, bringing a return to warmer air across the region. Highs will rise back into the mid 80s by Wednesday. The weather will be dry through at least Wednesday, before the first isolated showers in advance of a cold front bring a chance for rain to western counties late Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main weather maker this period is a cold front currently expected to cross on Friday. Humidity will continue to increase ahead of it, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning for Thursday and Thursday night. The situation may be similar to the front which just crossed our region, since the main shortwave will likely remain off to the north like this past system. Dry weather returns Friday night and continues through the weekend with the return of high pressure. Temperatures will remain near or just above seasonal levels through the period. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Although clouds have continued as expected overnight at FKL/DUJ, LIFR ceilings have developed instead of the MVFR ceilings that were expected. With the coverage of the low ceilings expanding between 07-09Z, will forecast these ceilings persisting at FKL/DUJ through at least 12Z before eventually rising. Cannot rule out these ceilings affecting terminals farther to the south, such as BVI/PIT/AGC/LBE. CU rule indicates a diurnal CU layer today, though mixing and building high pressure should return VFR conditions to the area by afternoon. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restriction potential returns with the approach and passage of a cold front Thursday and Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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