Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250042 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 842 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the seven day forecast. Rain is expected Sunday into Sunday night, and again Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HRRR/RAP have backed off the generation of light precipitation in the I-80 corridor later tonight. Given the lack of upstream activity and position of boundary well to the north, tend to think that a dry forecast through 12Z is the way to go. While some weak isentropic lift overnight will help to generate lowering and thickening clouds with time, do not see sufficient forcing to get much in the way of precipitation going. This will wait until later on Saturday, when a shortwave passing across southern Ontario and Quebec pushes the frontal zone southward toward our northern counties. Thus, changes in the near term were limited to mainly sky and temperature tweaks. Continued mixing through the night will not allow low temperatures below the lower and mid 50s, which happen to be the climatologic max temperatures for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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In collaboration with surrounding offices, low temperatures were reduced a couple of degrees mainly in our eastern counties for Sunday. The advancing northern boundary may back-door into our CWA, and with southeast flow setting up from high pressure to our northeast, a CAD-like pattern suggests that cooler temperatures may occur along the eastern slopes. Rest of the forecast for this period unchanged. Previous discussion... While low pressure over the Plains drifts northeastward through the period, a front will rotate through the region Sunday into Sunday night. Have continued the categorical pops in the forecast, along with a chance of thunder Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers may linger into Monday, primarily across eastern counties. The frontal passage will do little to change temperatures, with values remaining well above normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak low pressure will race across the area Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another round of showers to the area. High pressure behind the low will yield northerly winds, ushering in some cooler air. Even so, temperatures should not drop below seasonal norms. Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, with another round of showers forecast for Friday. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected tonight under shortwave ridging. Moisture pooling along a slow SWD moving cold front should result in MVFR ceilings over NW PA by Saturday morning, continuing through the day. Ceilings should lower elsewhere as the front moves further south, though VFR levels should be maintained. A low level jet across nrn OH/nw PA should result in a LLWS potential overnight until the jet diminishes Sat morning. Outlook... Restrictions are possible N of PIT Sat night with a warm front. Widespread restrictions are likely Sunday/Sunday night with crossing low pressure, and again with a Monday night/Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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