Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200040 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 840 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED. BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD ATTM. A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY. TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING. GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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