Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190714 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 314 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stalling front will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances mainly for areas south of Pittsburgh today. Areawide rain chances are expected to escalate with another frontal system this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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The predawn update included further adjustments to precip probabilities and hourly trends as an approaching shortwave is interacting with the cold front sagging off the Great Lakes. Additional showers, and some thunderstorms along the I 70 corridor were forecast-maintained this morning, and expanded northward thereafter toward the immediate Pittsburgh area as per indications of less southward penetration of the front. Cooler, albeit still above average temperature can be expected today given the lack of sustained cold advection/frontal push under zonal flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper ridging is projected to rebuild over the Upper Ohio/Great Lakes Regions by Saturday in response to deep troughing over the Plains. Warmth and moisture will thus quickly return and precip probability will escalate as that trough/associated front system dig eastward this weekend. Cold frontal passage is currently slated for an early Monday passage. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Seasonably cool temperature is anticipated in the wake of the aforementioned front as model-world forecasts development of a Hudson Bay to Gulf of Mexico trough for next week. Low convective thresholds and shortwaves through flow will drive persistent precip chances.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Models are hinting at a period of MVFR cigs behind the surface front in the cold air advection this morning. The MVFR cigs will be short lived and a quick return to VFR is expected. Surface front will stall just to the south of the area later today. With daytime heating, a thunderstorm is possible at MGW and ZZV during the afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible again late Sat thru early Mon with crossing fronts.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/22

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