


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --986 FXUS61 KPBZ 281210 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 810 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Flooding and isolated damaging wind risks will be possible ahead of slow front this afternoon. Dense fog potential early tomorrow morning. Drier weather is expected Sunday, followed by another active period Monday to Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: - Warm and wet pattern continues today - Downburst wind and flooding threats increase after 1pm today - Dense fog potential increases after midnight --------------------------------------------------------------- A few isolated showers have developed early this morning, likely triggered by lingering outflow boundaries from the past 12 hours. A cold front currently stretches across northern Ohio, with a few thunderstorms forming along it--bringing heavy rainfall and occasional non-severe wind gusts. This advancing cold front will serve as the main focal point for convective initiation this afternoon in our region, initially along the I-80 before advancing southeast. Ensembles continue to advertise plentiful instability (1500-2500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE) in a low-shear environment. A bit more dry air aloft, along with potential for 600-800 J/kg of DCAPE, will present an isolated downburst wind threat once again. PWAT values also remain high, which indicates potential for more heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding with training storms. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across most of the area. The passage of the boundary and the diurnal loss of instability should lead to decreasing convective coverage from north to south during the evening, with most of the area rain-free by midnight. However, with abundant residual moisture in the boundary layer, calm surface winds, and some clearing skies will increase the potential for fog development after midnight.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: - Early morning fog Sunday - Mostly dry conditions Sunday - Storm and heavy rainfall chances return Monday and Tuesday. - Temperatures remain above-average, but below heat advisory criteria. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Fog is expected to linger across the region early Sunday morning through at least 8am. The fog could be dense at times and may prompt either a Special Weather Statement or a Dense Fog Advisory. The cold front is expected to stall just south of the Mason- Dixon line on Sunday, keeping most showers and storms south of our area. The exception may be a few showers/storms across the WV ridges Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain above- normal under increasingly zonal 500mb flow. The front will begin to lift back northward late Sunday night into Monday, with showers likely returning to the area Monday morning. Elevated PWATs with southwesterly flow and plentiful instability will again mean flooding low-end severe threats are on the table. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Monday/Monday night. Rain will finally clear with another cold frontal passage Tuesday, leaving drier conditions for the remainder of the day. Northwesterly flow and meager cold advection will keep temperatures closer to seasonal norms Tuesday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - A drier and more seasonable air mass arrives by Wednesday and persists through at least Thursday. - ------------------------------------------------------------------- The break in our more active pattern continues Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures return to a more seasonable level under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Low probability rain chances may return Thursday afternoon and Friday as more wavy mid-level flow develops. Details and timing remain unclear at this point. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Shower and thunderstorm development is expected mainly after 18Z as a slow moving cold front advances from the north. However, stray showers can`t be ruled early this morning, triggered from remnant outflow boundary over the last 12 hours. Have put in some PROB30 to account for this development into the afternoon at just about all the terminals. Development should wane and dissipate between 00Z to 03Z. With potential clearing, light winds, and an abundant amount of remnant moisture near the surface the potential of fog increases across the region. Fog could be dense at times, mainly between the time period of 08Z to 11Z. Surface heating will likely help improve vis conditions after 12Z. Probability of showers and storms is elevated south of HLG with a stalled frontal boundary on Sunday. Out of all the terminals, MGW would be the most likely candidate to experience a few stray showers. Outlook... Showers/storms return again Monday with an approaching cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/Rackley NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Rackley SHORT TERM...Rackley LONG TERM...Rackley/CL AVIATION...Hefferan/Shallenberger