Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131111 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 611 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Snow ending this morning will be followed by much colder temperatures through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Snow accumulation rates will be diminishing from southwest to northeast early this morning as the current event wraps up and low pressure exits east. Models have shown good continuity with previous runs in snow largely ended by mid-morning across the forecast area. Overall, only minor adjustments were needed to the ongoing forecast. Strong cold air advection in the wake of the front has resulted in plummeting temperatures overnight...with current readings largely in the teens across the region and minimal recovery during the day as arctic air continues to funnel in. On average, daytime max temperatures will be in the upper teens across the region...around 40 to 45 degrees colder than observed on Friday. Gusty winds will result in wind chill values in hovering in the low single digits throughout the day. ** A summary of ongoing flooding issues can be found below in the hydrology section. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Well below temperatures and dry conditions can be expected through the weekend as cold high pressure transitions over the forecast area. Decreasing cloud coverage, lighter winds, and fresh snow on the ground will result in a strong radiational cooling event overnight. Therefore, opted to go with a blend of unbiased raw guidance and then undercut these values further for the Sunday morning minimum temperature forecast. A return to subzero temperatures will be very possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A longwave trough pattern will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, which will maintain cold temperature. The next chance of organized snowfall is projected with rapidly moving low pressure that is forecast to generate minor snow accumulation on Monday night. Building high pressure should dry the weather into late week and moderate temperature. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions will improve from west to east over the course of the morning as low pressure exits to the east and drier air moves in across the region. .OUTLOOK... The next chance of widespread restrictions will arrive on Monday with another round of snow. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers continue to run high following the recent heavy rainfall and snow melt. 1 to 3.5 inches has been observed across the area over the last two days, with the heaviest amounts seen from NW West Virginia through Western PA. Ice jams along the Allegheny River and smaller streams have also added to the flooding overnight. The point at Pittsburgh is currently expected to crest near flood stage. Several river flood warnings remain in effect, with a larger areal flood warning for areas from Allegheny county and points N through this morning. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ001. OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ023-031-073>076. WV...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ001>003. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ004-012-021-509>514. && $$

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