Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251922 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 322 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXITING FOR THE MOST PART MID AFTERNOON...AND WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR ENVELOPING THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. QUITE MILD AS TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST POPS BEFORE 12Z ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT STARTS NEAR OR JUST INTO NW CORNER OF CWA AT 12Z THURSDAY. WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP EASTWARD PROGRESS SLOW DURING THE DAY...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING IT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. BEST QPF WILL LIE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IN OHIO. HOWEVER...ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO GET A GOOD SOAKING. PWATS WILL BE PUNCHING UP NEAR OR JUST OVER 1.0 INCH IN DECENT SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY A TIGHTENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TOTAL QPF OF 0.4" TO 0.8" LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS EVENT. THE STRONG LIFT MAY COMBINE WITH ABOUT 50-100 J/KG OF CAPE TO PRODUCE A FEW TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF A ROUGH HLG-LBE LINE. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE APPROPRIATE AREAWIDE. EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS SUBZERO H925/H850 AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE BACKSIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. COVERAGE WILL REACH ITS MINIMUM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP FRIDAY AS H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UPPED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IF MODELS CAN BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO QPF IS LOW. DURING THE DAY...A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SHSN TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CL
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT RAIN EXITING NORTHEAST I-80 CORRIDOR WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM KZZV AROUND 09Z TO KLBE BY 14Z THURSDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE TURNING DIMINISHING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN COLD ADVECTION. VFR HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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