Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 270027 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
827 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected through the holiday weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --830pm update...have removed pops for the overnight period.
Atmosphere has quickly stabilized and we have lost most of the
cloud cover. Will probably see an increase in clouds overnight,
but don`t expect any activity. Temperatures have again been updated
with latest hires guidance.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the
forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge.
Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Diurnal chances for
showers/storms can be expected each day with daytime heating but
there does not appear to be any significant features to focus
activity until late on Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the evening hours. Towards
morning, increasingly moist low levels will allow for MVFR fog
formation at most terminals, with some IFR ceiling possible at
FKL/DUJ. A weak wave may provide a few overnight showers but
chances are too low for inclusion.
VFR will be reestablished by midmorning Friday as fog dissipates
and ceilings lift. An isolated shower or storm remains possible
Friday afternoon, but again, not enough confidence in ocurrence
for a VCSH/VCTS mention at this time.
.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.