Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291933 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES IN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THIS WEEK...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DESPITE THE CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR PRESENTATION...RAIN WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT FALLS THROUGH AND EVENTUALLY OVERCOMES A DRY LAYER IN THE MID-LEVELS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF AT 925MB NEAR MIDNIGHT...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF THE OH/KY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. WE WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN THREAT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO OUR AREA. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL FEED HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FUELING INSTABILITY. THE DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND BOOST CAPE VALUES FURTHER... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING WAVE. TAX
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID- WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES. AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT. THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT REMNANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TAX .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ TAX/KRAMAR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.