Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231136 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 736 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE POST DAWN UPDATE FEATURED THE CANCELLATION OF THE FROST...FREEZE HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. INSOLATION AND A WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED AS RADIATIONAL RAPIDLY COOLS THE REGION...BUT NOT THE EXTENT OF LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMER EVE AND RISING HEIGHTS. A LOW TEMPERATURE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES SHOULD SUFFICE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS AGAIN MODEL TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO SLOW IN MOVING THE STORM TO THE EAST. DELAYED TIMING SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING MONDAY. A BIT LEERY OF A NEARLY DRY FORECAST WITH WARM FRONT CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD SUFFICE. BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE FRONT OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH RADPIDLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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