Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222120 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 420 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm weather will continue until the passage of a Saturday cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Residual showers to the north of I 80 will end quickly early this evening as the supporting jet streak shifts eastward. Forecast adjustments were centered on cloud cover given the late afternoon break over the immediate Upper Ohio area. Subsidence under a shortwave ridge is expected to further suppress clouds intially this evening, but the moisture surge on the van of another weak shortwave should support an increase once again through the predawn hours. That weak trough may generate some scattered showers on Thursday, but weak support with a weak wind field and instability will be the limiting precip factors. The chance for showers should suffice for the precip forecast. Warm temperatures continue under the warm advection regime. See climate section for record highs which may be in jeopardy.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Any scattered showers will taper from south to north as a warm front lifts northward across the area on Thursday night. This process will plant us firmly in the warm sector for much of Friday, and will result in dry weather and a peaking of the warm temperatures. Highs on Friday will soar into the 70s for the majority. The models are continuing the slower trend with the well- advertised frontal passage, which is now slated for Saturday morning or early afternoon. Have slowed PoP progression a bit as a result. The timing of the passage would still not seem to favor much of a severe threat given the expected lack of buoyancy, but with strong flow and plenty of shear to enhance updrafts, any storms may need to be monitored for wind gusts.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on Monday before having surprisingly good agreement on Wednesday. Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday, high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s once again a possibility by the first day of March. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Although most locations have VFR conditions, some IFR ceilings have bled into ZZV/FKL from the west, where most upstream locations across Ohio and Indiana have IFR/LIFR readings. Decided to go more pessimistic with the forecast, keeping only a short period of VFR conditions through the afternoon and bringing conditions more quickly late this afternoon and evening compared to the 12Z TAFs. Made little to no changes after sunset, keeping all locations under restrictions into Thursday. Light w-sw wind will continue through the period. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with the passage of a Friday night/early Saturday cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Wed Thu Fri --------- -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922,30) 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 67 (1992) 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 70 (1980) 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 60 (1983) 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 57 (1949) 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 73 (1997) 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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