National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191143
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
743 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the encroachment of
an upper trough today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The post-dawn update included adjustments to near term POPs as
per the latest radar and high res model trends. Convective
activity over Ohio is expected to continue weakening given a
lack of any supporting inflow and surface based instability.
Isolated, to minimally scattered POP number should suffice for
morning coverage.

Boundary layer moisture and heating should rapidly destabilize
the airmass over the region though, and redevelopment should be
expected with the encroachment of the relatively deep shortwave
trough by afternoon. A marginal severe risk remains, with inhibition
via a lack of overall instability despite a decent mid level
thermal trough.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and storms are projected to exit with the supporting
shortwave by evening. Dry and cool advection with subsidence
will support quiet and comfortable conditions through Sunday.

Warm, moist advection with flat ridging in advance of a midwestern
shortwave as per the latest model solutions indicate increased
humidity with a rapid temperature moderation above the averages
for Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The aforementioned midwest trough/associated front are likely to
provide the next precip chance by Tuesday night. Eastern CONUS
troughing are then forecast to support temperatures a few
degrees under the averages for the remainder of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are expected through the morning. Thunderstorm
chances are expected to increase through the afternoon with the
approach and passage of a shortwave trough. Will maintain a
VCTS/tempo TS mention in the tafs. VFR should return by evening
under building high pressure.

Surface flow will generally remain from the west at 10kts with
occasional gusts to 15kts.

.Outlook...
Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early
Wed cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$