Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150413 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1213 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Although local showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, more widespread rain can be expected on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No major changes were needed for the midnight update as another shortwave is expected to spread some scattered showers over the I 68 corridor again. Dynamics associated with a shortwave digging eastward across the Great Lakes on Tuesday may clip the I 80 corridor as per the latest NAM and GFS depictions. Have thus restructured some minimal POPs over northern, and ridge zones for that scenario as per favorable afternoon timing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Rising heights via overall shortwave ridging support a dry and warmer Wednesday forecast. Isolated/slight POPs were maintained for late Wednesday night as a warm front will be surging northward in response to deepening low pressure over the Upper MS Valley. That low is projected to stay well north, but the associated frontal system is likely to spawn showers and storms on Thursday. Seasonably warm temperature under the midweek shortwave will be moderated back toward the average with passage of the Thursday front.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A slowly progressing upper trough is forecast to maintain rain chances for the weekend with near average temperature.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Early morning valley MVFR to localized IFR fog is possible, though high/mid clouds should limit this potential to the usual ports. MVFR cigs are expected to develop at MGW overnight with increasing low lvl moisture with a weak shortwave, before VFR returns Tue aftn. Another weak shortwave could result in a Tue aftn tstm toward FKL/DUJ, but chcs appear too low for a TAF mention. .OUTLOOK... Localized early mrng fog psbl thru the week. Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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