Area Forecast Discussion
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943 FXUS61 KPBZ 221321 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 921 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The morning visible satellite imagery reveals substantial breaks in the cloud cover across eastern Ohio with a much more cogent overcast extending across much of Pennsylvania. As a mid-level low drops into the base of the upper trough over our region today, mid-level temperatures will drop across the area, steepening lapse rates through the day. This combined with some amount of breaks in the overcast allowing for temperatures to jump 5-10 degrees relative to yesterday should allow for some amount of destabilization. While CAPE profiles are not particularlyimpressive, what CAPE there is essentially straddles the charge separation thermal layer. As such, thunder chances were maintained in the forecast for the PM hours. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Residual showers will diminish/shift eastward this eve with stabilization; however, the matured, stacked low is forecast to remain over the Mid-Atlantic Region through Monday. The chance for diurnally supported showers has thus been maintained for counties east and south of Pittsburgh. Building high pressure in the wake of the northeastward exiting low should suppress any regional shower chances by Tuesday, and warm temperature nearly 10 degrees above the average by wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. POPS and above average temperature were forecast using superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IFR conditions will generally erode this morning with the slowest improvements at KLBE and KMGW, where light NW upslope flow will allow for stratus to linger the longest. As a mid-level low drops southward and increases instability as the mid-levels cool, this should allow for better cumulus development again this afternoon. Scattered showers will develop across the area, and a few thunderstorms will be possible. Coverage of thunder will not be sufficient to include in the coded forecasts at this time. Fries .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are possible through Monday before the upper low exits.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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