Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021438 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1038 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEP MOISTURE IS PEELING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN CLOUDS. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A COHERENT STRATUS DECK FROM BECOMING ESTABLISHED POST-SUNRISE. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SO NO BETTER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY POOLS AHEAD OF IT...HI-RES GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BULLISH ON THE IDEA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM HAS COME IN LARGELY IN LINE WITH THIS IDEA...AND BOTH MODEL SYSTEMS PROJECT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN A RATHER SHORT TIME FRAME WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING JUST OVER ONE HALF OF AN INCH...AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING LESS THAN AN INCH AS WELL...A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM WETZEL COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH IN WEST VIRGINIA. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE UPR OH REGION. WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR PORTS S OF PIT. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021- 509>514. && $$

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