Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160517 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1217 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will bring light snow to the region today.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No major changes were needed for the late eve update Great Lakes low pressure is poised to pull a cold front across the region during the near term. Expect light snow to redevelop with patches of moderate to heavy embedded. The advisory for the ridges for today was maintained. Previous... Near dawn Tuesday, the upper trough will pull moisture northward, focusing snow over more of our southern zones. This snow is expected to continue well into Tuesday afternoon, before the dry slot can advance further. This will lengthen the residence time of snow over the Ridges, ultimately boosting their totals from previous forecasts. All told, kept forecast amounts a little general with 2-3" for most of the area over at least a 24hr period. The ridges could see 2-4" and despite the long duration event, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Any remaining snow showers will continue to taper down Tuesday night in the wake of the cold front. The core of the cold air will pass through Wednesday morning, bringing the coldest temperatures of the work week. Current forecast has relatively light winds during this time, but this period will need to be monitored for potential Wind Chill Advisory headlines. Heights begin to build into Wednesday, but northwest flow through the mid-levels will keep clouds and the potential for light snow, especially north of I-80. Ridging, albeit brief, will carry into Thursday, bringing an increase in sunshine and helping to further moderate temperatures. Still highs will be several degrees off the averages. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Zonal flow tries to establish over the eastern CONUS late this week. From here, a slight pattern shift is expected as a trough deepens over the western CONUS. This will amplify the southeastern ridge and ultimately bring warmer conditions back to the area. Moist advection around the western flank of the ridge will keep at least chance PoPs in for for the early weekend. By this time, temperatures should be warm enough to support all rain. The western trough ejects and approaches our area by early next week. Enough consistency existed across model guidance to maintain the likely PoPs for Monday. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Widespread MVFR to IFR restrictions in snow can be expected until low pressure pulls a cdfnt acrs the region this morning. Conditions should improve during the afternoon as subsidence and dry advection ensue in the wake of the front. .OUTLOOK... Northwest flow may lead to further restrictions Wednesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ076. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ510- 511. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ512>514.
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&& $$

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