Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141727 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1227 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should result in mainly dry weather through Wednesday morning. Rain chances return with a late Wednesday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Updated mainly the sky grids to account for satellite and hi-res model trends. Clouds will slowly erode this afternoon, generally from south to north, as high pressure slides across and winds veer towards the east with time. High temperatures will remain several degrees below climatology. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Mainly clear skies are expected tonight as the high continues EWD. A shortwave trough and associated cold front are progged to advance out of the Midwest Tuesday night, reaching the area late Wed. Maintained a band of likely POPs with FROPA with sufficient moisture and upper support. A digging upper trough is progged for a Thursday passage across the Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley with scattered rain and snow showers expected. Dry weather should return Thursday night under building high pressure. Near seasonal temperatures Wednesday should fall to around 10 degrees below average by Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A trough is progged to rapidly advance from the W CONUS to the NE CONUS by the weekend. Rain chances should return Friday night and Saturday with the approach of the trough and associated cold front. Models differ on the strength of the trough, and resultant cold advection. Preferred an NAEFS/WPC ensemble blend, which keeps the trough and general NW flow across the NE CONUS through early Monday before shifting NE. This should result in periodic snow shower chances, with the best chances Sunday through Sunday evening. Near seasonal average temperatures to start should drop to 10-15 degrees below average by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Stratocu deck will gradually diminish through the rest of the afternoon, though the cloud deck should generally remain VFR through the period as high pressure slides overhead. Light and variable wind will shift to the south tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next low pressure system. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a late Wed cold front, and with subsequent upper troughing and cold NW flow Thu. Restrictions are likely again with a Sat cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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