Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230422 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1222 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. Unsettled weather for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A cirrus shield well out ahead of a system riding up the Middle Atlantic will continue to push northeastward through the area overnight into early Tuesday. In advance of this shield of clouds, temperatures have already fallen off quite precipitously, which means that even with clouds moving in, lows still look a-ok. Deep moisture associated with the system moving up the coast really never looks to make retrogressive progress into the CWA on Tuesday. The upper jet axis likewise would not favor it doing so as it aligns generally in line with the Laurel Highlands. Thus, any rain showers seem unlikely to make it west of maybe Tucker/Garrett County on Tuesday and Tuesday night. High clouds will be around in the rest of the CWA, however overall dry weather will continue. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Anomalously deep mid level cyclone moves slowly east with outer band of showers reaching parts of eastern Ohio by late morning then taking its sweet old time before reaching western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia toward supper time. With plenty of moisture in the column, do not expect to see any convective activity as it moves through. Under heavy showers due to the slow northward propagation and easterly wind component /upslope/, far eastern areas may see rainfall amounts approach an inch. Otherwise, look for a half inch less through Wednesday night. The occluded mature system oozes eastward Thursday with the warm conveyor belt spreading more showers across the region during the day. GFS is more optimistic than the NAM with the plume of showers residing in central Pennsylvania and us under a dry slot. With the difference being only a few hundred miles and given the numerical NCEP suite struggles with these systems, low confidence in the forecast for this time period, however somewhere its going to rain so continued with likely pops. H5 low continues to move east Thursday night, however BUFR soundings show still portray a lot of moisture so clouds will hang tough. Wrap around showers will continue, but rain rates won`t be as high. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights: - Active weather regime - Temps right where they should be - Memorial Day Weekend BBQ plans? Monitor forecast! The weather pattern remains active right through the long term as a series of system traverse the region making people dodge rain drops this upcoming holiday weekend. The long term starts out quiet with a transitory surface anticyclone Friday, however that is quickly shunted off to the east by an incoming mid level shortwave trough. The aforementioned shortwave trough is slated to arrive Saturday night into Sunday. Still timing differences as one would expect this far out, but whenever it passes expect a several hour period of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Precipitable water peaks around 1.5" and with 30 to 40 kts of flow, therefore high water does not appear a concern at this juncture. Severe weather threat is low as well given uncertainty with the timing. If it passes during peak heating hours, there would be a low threat for damaging winds. High pressure builds is forecast to build in just time for Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR at all airports through Tuesday. Light east winds are forecasted through the period. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions and precipitation is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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