Area Forecast Discussion
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398 FXUS61 KPBZ 270715 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 315 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Eastern CONUS ridging is expected to continue today. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached, though the proximity of the ridge and lack of significant instability should limit this to isolated coverage. Temperatures are expected to remain 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Any isolated showers/storms should quickly dissipate this evening as stabilization occurs. The eastern CONUS ridge is expected persist through Saturday, though moisture and instability on the nw periphery of the ridge should result in afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances. A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region Sunday as the ridge shifts east. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue until the trough crosses sometime Monday. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ridging is progged to build across the upper Ohio valley region through midweek with mainly dry weather expected. Shower and thunderstorm chances should return by late week with the approach of a midwestern trough. Temperatures should continue to average above seasonal levels through the period. Used adjusted Superblend guidance to account for uncertainty and increasing operational model differences by late in the week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will persist with only brief peri-dawn mvfr fog limited by mid/upr cloudiness and relatively low crossover temperatures. An isolated shower or storm is possible this afternoon, but confidence in coverage and placement is not sufficient for TAF inclusion. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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