Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPBZ 180915
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
515 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Warm and breezy today ahead of an approaching cold front.
Unsettled weather into late week will give way to much cooler
temperatures for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Early morning update to slow down the increase in clouds ahead of
boundary this afternoon, using current sat pix and latest model
data. No other changes and previous discussion follows.
Warm weather will remain through Wednesday despite a cold front
approaching the region this evening and slowly crossing Wednesday.
Sunshine and strong southwest flow ahead of the front will push
temperatures about about 20 degrees above average. See the climate
section below for details on possible records for today. Wind
gusts of 25 to 30 mph in a tightened pressure gradient ahead of
boundary can be expected today. Front will bring scattered showers
to much of the region later tonight and Wednesday, as it shifts
southeast and stalls toward the Mason/Dixon line. Only weak cool
advection behind the front will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above the seasonal average through Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wave of low pressure is still progged to develop on the front
and further increase shower chances Thursday into Friday as a
mid/upper trough over the midwest amplifies. Models coming into
better agreement on timing and strength of developing surface low
pressure and POPs were increased for the period.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Much cooler temperatures are expected over the region through the
weekend, as upper level troughing develops over the Eastern CONUS.
Scattered showers will remain in the forecast into Sunday as cold
advection continues and shortwaves in northwest flow traverse the
area. Dry, but seasonably cool conditions are anticipated as high
pressure builds for the start of the new work week. Slightly
modified Superblend guidance was used for the extended period.
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although winds
will be a factor. Light southwest winds overnight at the surface
will be overtopped by a low level jet. This will bring will bring
low-level wind shear to most terminals, although it appears the
jet may not make it far enough east to impact MGW. The primary
threat period for LLWS should be from midnight through mid-
morning. After that time, stronger momentum should mix out to the
surface, allowing for 25 to 30kt wind gusts.
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are expected with a system that enters the region
Tuesday night and lingers all the way through Saturday, with the
greatest chance for showers and restrictions expected to be
Thursday and Friday.
Well above average temperatures are expected through mid week. The
potential exists for reaching widespread record high temperatures
today. Below are the records for October 18th and year of
occurrence for selected sites.
PIT...83 set in 1938
MGW...83 set in 1963
ZZV...81 set in 1964
PHD...83 set in 1968
HLG...79 set in 1950
DUJ...79 set in 1963