Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180915 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 515 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and breezy today ahead of an approaching cold front. Unsettled weather into late week will give way to much cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Early morning update to slow down the increase in clouds ahead of boundary this afternoon, using current sat pix and latest model data. No other changes and previous discussion follows. Warm weather will remain through Wednesday despite a cold front approaching the region this evening and slowly crossing Wednesday. Sunshine and strong southwest flow ahead of the front will push temperatures about about 20 degrees above average. See the climate section below for details on possible records for today. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph in a tightened pressure gradient ahead of boundary can be expected today. Front will bring scattered showers to much of the region later tonight and Wednesday, as it shifts southeast and stalls toward the Mason/Dixon line. Only weak cool advection behind the front will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal average through Wednesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A wave of low pressure is still progged to develop on the front and further increase shower chances Thursday into Friday as a mid/upper trough over the midwest amplifies. Models coming into better agreement on timing and strength of developing surface low pressure and POPs were increased for the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Much cooler temperatures are expected over the region through the weekend, as upper level troughing develops over the Eastern CONUS. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast into Sunday as cold advection continues and shortwaves in northwest flow traverse the area. Dry, but seasonably cool conditions are anticipated as high pressure builds for the start of the new work week. Slightly modified Superblend guidance was used for the extended period. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although winds will be a factor. Light southwest winds overnight at the surface will be overtopped by a low level jet. This will bring will bring low-level wind shear to most terminals, although it appears the jet may not make it far enough east to impact MGW. The primary threat period for LLWS should be from midnight through mid- morning. After that time, stronger momentum should mix out to the surface, allowing for 25 to 30kt wind gusts. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions are expected with a system that enters the region Tuesday night and lingers all the way through Saturday, with the greatest chance for showers and restrictions expected to be Thursday and Friday. && .CLIMATE... Well above average temperatures are expected through mid week. The potential exists for reaching widespread record high temperatures today. Below are the records for October 18th and year of occurrence for selected sites. PIT...83 set in 1938 MGW...83 set in 1963 ZZV...81 set in 1964 PHD...83 set in 1968 HLG...79 set in 1950 DUJ...79 set in 1963 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.