Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281728 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 128 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unsettled but warm for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tonight a frontal boundary will return north as a warm front, with showers and thunderstorms developing, especially later tonight as a shortwave races east along the front. POPs look to increase after midnight with best mid level support along the boundary. Most models push the warm front north toward the New York and Pennsylvania border where it stalls late day Saturday. Have trended forecast in this direction, but confidence is not exceptionally high. SPC has maintained a marginal risk of severe, but with better dynamics well west of region through Saturday, for now think severe threat not high enough to mention. Rising dew points will help keep temperatures mild tonight, with warming behind the front Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Warm front should remain near the New York border through Sunday night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on thunderstorms Sunday. With mid level ridge on Sunday much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers and thunderstorms with FROPA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected for this afternoon under high pressure, with high clouds and southerly winds. Moisture increases after 00Z as a warm front lifts back north. Winds will shift briefly to the east before veering back to the south and southwest. Clouds will lower with time, with most sites dropping to MVFR ceilings by sunrise and FKL/DUJ dropping to IFR ceilings. MGW should be far enough away from the low- level moisture to remain VFR. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected as well, with thunder chances still too low to include yet, but brief IFR visibilities are possible in heavier precipitation tonight. .Outlook... Occasional restrictions are possible this weekend along a stalled frontal boundary. Better restriction chances arrive with a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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