Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141918 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 318 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather through early Sunday. Winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front that will be accompanied by a narrow line of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the afternoon. The frontal passage will be followed by much cooler temperatures and gusty west winds through Sunday night. After a well below normal day Monday, temperatures will quickly moderate back to much above normal readings by the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Clear skies present across the vast majority of the region this afternoon. After the unseasonably warm afternoon and boundary layer drying, think temperatures should remain mild enough overnight to prevent fog despite light winds/clear skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Winds will begin to increase and become gusty by late morning in advance of an approaching cold front. Unseasonably warm temperatures, perhaps breaking 80 in a few locations over ern OH, SW PA and nrn WV, are expected before clouds begin to arrive by early-mid afternoon. Shortwave energy will largely translate into eastern Canada, as has been the case for most storm tracks since early Spring, leaving a positively tilted frontal boundary to push through the area. Frontal timing is somewhat favorable in terms of instability, but the lack of deep moisture and strong ascent should keep the focus to a narrow line of showers and perhaps a few gusty thunderstorms. Models in better agreement on frontal timing, with precipitation moving across the Ohio counties in the 18-21Z time frame and across PA and nrn WV through 00Z, with rapidly clearing into the evening hours for most areas. Cool NW flow and a crossing upper trough should maintain at least a small shower chance across the nrn zones with the fetch off of lake Erie. Otherwise, much colder temperatures will be the main headline Sunday night through Monday night. Patchy frost is possible Monday night, but since we are well past the growing season, no headlines will be issued and any additional warm days expected thereafter should be considered a bonus.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A large area of high pressure across much of the Ern CONUS should maintain dry and steadily warming weather through the week. Much above normal temperatures are expected by the end of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Expect mainly clear skies through tonight. There may be a brief wind shift back to ese which could bring some stratus back into DUJ overnight, but confidence is not high in this scenario. Will mention LLWS, as the low level jet will be strengthening over the region toward morning and could yield some marginal low level shear. Restrictions will be possible with a passing cold front Sunday afternoon in showers/storms, with MVFR cigs making it in near the end of the TAF period. .Outlook... Restrictions will be possible through Sunday night as the front crosses and may continue through Monday in cold northwest flow. Prevailing VFR returns Tuesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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