Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 182233 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES. RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND 40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW 70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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