Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 132303 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 703 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected for most locations through Wednesday, although showers will be possible south and east of Morgantown Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Made some minor tweaks to sky and temp/dewpoint fields for the late afternoon update. Main wording change was to deemphasize fog a bit overnight. Think it will be fairly patchy given the dewpoints in the 50s currently, which will make it fairly tough to achieve crossover temperatures overnight on a widespread basis. Forecast generally on track otherwise. Previous discussion... Moisture across the southeastern United States will filter north overnight, bringing clouds after midnight to eastern portions of the forecast area. A weak shortwave should set off some showers in the ridges late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Synoptic and high-resolution 12Z model runs brought precipitation much farther to the west than their 00Z runs, but still unsure as to whether this was a fluke or the beginning of a trend. Did not make much of an expansion to chance pops, but included a broader area in slight chance pops to account for the latest runs. Temperatures should be seasonable. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An isolated shower could persist across the ridges Monday night and Tuesday, but otherwise dry conditions are expected with high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes. High and low temperatures will creep up a couple degrees each day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An unsettled pattern will keep rain in the forecast through the entire extended forecast. Added likely pops to the forecast Thursday with enough confidence in timing of precipitation from the NAEFS, keeping chance pops at other times. Despite the widespread cloud cover, temperatures should be a couple degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as sfc high pressure slides E, though late night/early morning MVFR to IFR valley fog is expected to affect a few ports. A weak shortwave tracking NE from the TN valley should bring an increase in clouds Mon, along with shower chances toward MGW. .OUTLOOK... Localized erly mrng fog psbl thru the week. Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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