Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221117 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 617 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RESULT IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. A CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE ILN CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MET BY DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD HELP ERODE ITS OVERALL POTENCY AS IT MOVE EAST. THAT SAID...SOME VERY COLD SFC TEMPS REMAIN AS A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT HAS DIPPED MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-TEENS. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...TEMPS DO GO UP IN LARGE PART TO THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND THE BETTER SRLY FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN. A SAMPLING OF MESONET SITES AT THIS HOUR YIELDS TEMPS EVEN LOWER THAN ASOS OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL READINGS NEAR 10F. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED SOME 3-6F HOURLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH AS COLD AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...EVEN WHEN LOCATIONS REACH THAT 32F THRESHOLD IT WONT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT RAIN WILL FAIL TO FREEZE ON COLDER ELEVATED SURFACES...AUTOMOBILES...OR TREES. OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW AND IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE ZRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS PLANNED AS WELL. RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BOUNDARY STAYS JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH WAA DRIVING SFC TEMPS UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. TAX && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID- MORNING. AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TAX OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013- 014-020-021-029. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016. WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004. && $$

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