Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201525 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1125 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather is expected through tomorrow. Hot and humid weather with periodic thunderstorm chances are expected Friday though the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No major changes for the late morning update. Previous...High pressure and should maintain dry and mostly clear conditions through tonight. Morning PBZ sounding supports highs a few degrees above seasonal levels, with lows near or just below average tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather as the result of surface high pressure will be re- enforced by ridging aloft through Thursday. Dewpoints will gradually increase through the day Thursday as southwest flow develops on the back side of the surface high. The end result will be an increase in humidity, making the end of the week warm and muggy. Temperatures will be above average through the short term period. Best chance of rain in the short term will come with a weak disturbance that will pass well north of the area Thursday night into Friday. This upper-level wave will crest the ridge and attempt to drive southward, spurred along by a southern waggle of the exit region of the upper-level jet streak. Most model guidance does develop at least some qpf over the forecast area through the day Friday, but fighting to displace the ridge in place, this relatively weak and dry system will have difficulty producing widespread rain. Will continue to limit PoPs in the chance category, keeping fairly close to MOS numbers. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak boundary will drift over the southern half portion of the forecast area by Saturday morning. This will serve as the focus for rain chances Saturday afternoon, although the forecast currently calls for mostly dry conditions for the daytime period. Hot and humid conditions will carry through the weekend, fueling shower and thunderstorm chances, first along the warm front Sunday and then with the approaching cold front Monday. High temperatures over the weekend will be well above average with many locations pushing above 90 degrees. These temperatures, combined with dewpoints near 70 degrees will lead to heat indices into the upper 90s to near 100 in some locations. Temperatures will moderate some Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of the departing cold front. High pressure will re-establish for drier weather for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions and light winds can be expected through the TAF period as high pressure remains the dominant feature. Fog at northern TAF locations were not included in the latest TAF issuance based on latest model soundings, however, it is not out of the question as there should be slightly stronger radiational cooling overnight. There will be higher confidence in this later today after determining this afternoon`s crossover temperatures and observing dewpoint trends. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered restrictions in thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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