Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011606 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1206 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WITH NOON UPDATE...UPDATED WINDS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL DEBATED ADDING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWING LESS PRECIPITATION THAN EARLIER RUNS AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET...WITH GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A BRIEF SPRINKLE WILL NOT REMAIN OUT OF THE QUESTION. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TOWARD EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY SUNDAY...THEN A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. ANOTHER HARD TO TIME FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME TUESDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO FRONT. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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