Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210450 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1250 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will bring rain tonight and Saturday. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No changes needed to the forecast are needed at this time as timing of precipitation and QPF amounts look good based on upstream observations and ongoing trends. Latest radar shows light rain now in place over much of the area but more moderate rates are still to the south. Rain rates will pick up over the next several hours and peak overnight before diminishing shortly before daybreak. Expect the heavier showers associated with the front- left jet quadrant to continue northeast with the core and impact southern and eastern zones the most. While the most intense rain will be south and east of the forecast area, amounts of up to a quarter of an inch an hour will be possible. Previous discussion follows.. Low pressure is progged to track across the TN Valley tonight, reaching the upper OH valley region early Saturday morning. Steady rain is expected to move across the area as the low approaches overnight and Saturday morning. The upper OH valley low should weaken Saturday as a coastal low develops, though a deepening upper trough crossing the region should keep off and on showers in the forecast through the afternoon. Generally expecting from one third to one inch of rain. Near seasonal average temperatures are expected tonight, with 10 degree below average levels expected Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Although the primary focus of the precipitation will shift well to our east with a deepening coastal low, the upper-level trough axis directly overhead will keep rain showers in the area through early Sunday morning. The deepening trough is then progged to become a cut-off upper low across central PA later Sunday, with additional showers and isolated thunder in the forecast due to the proximity of the low. High pressure building in from the west should result in a clearing trend later Sunday night, and result in dry weather for the beginning of next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall models show average agreement and continuity with previous runs with regards to the central conus ridge shifting to the east and bringing a warming trend in temperatures to the region. Have maintained a dry forecast through the first half of the week until flow shifts to the southwest and moisture advection increases. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the evening, although clouds will lower and thicken with the approach of low pressure from the southwest. Rain will develop later tonight with condition deterioration into Saturday morning. Although rainfall is expected to diminish in coverage after daybreak, ifr ceilings are expected to persist for much of the day as an upper level trough crosses. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions are likely to continue into Saturday night, with improvement on Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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