Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221921 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 321 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid weather is forecast for into early next week along with intervals of scattered thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Only a few showers and storms remain across West Virgina this afternoon. Further north, the area remains stable, as little cumulus has developed. The latest hi res models suggest very little redevelopment over the region, and think that this seems reasonable given current conditions. Will still hold onto low chance pops as the next shortwave advances toward the region, mainly south of I-80 where some instability remains and earlier convection did not pass. The best shear appears to situated to the north of this region however, so the risk for severe is low. Rain and cloud cover this morning will most likely keep much of the region from hitting 90 today. Weak boundary will stall south of the region overnight but little convection is anticipated with the loss of heating. Clearing skies may support some patchy fog by morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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We will remain in northwest flow situated between the broad ridge/trough pattern across the central and eastern CONUS. Yet another shortwave digging through the base of the trough over NY and New England will push a front across the region on Saturday. This may be enough to initialize some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially where low levels remain moist - which appears to be along the I-70 corridor. More notable will be the temperatures tomorrow, which should surpass 90. With dewpoints staying in the low 70`s over Ohio, heat indices will approach 100. Thus, a heat advisory has been issued for several of counties in Ohio. With the back-door front approaching further north, dewpoints may fall off allowing for temperatures to approach 90 but allowing heat indices to stay below criteria. Will allow future shifts to assess the potential. Surface high pressure should keep things quiet on Sunday until the approach of a trough and associated front late Sunday night/ Monday morning. Very warm temperatures and humid conditions will continue until this front approaches. Some timing differences preclude adding likely pops in the forecast for monday at this time.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally zonal flow is progged through the long term period. Weak disturbances embedded in the flow should bring periodic shower and thunderstorm chances to the region, especially for the second half of the week. Temperatures are expected to remain several degrees above the seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the evening with the best upper support and instability for thunderstorms shifting south of the area, though an isolated storm is still possible though sunset. MVFR fog is expected late tonight with increasing dew points. This should quickly mix out after sunrise Saturday with VFR conditions thereafter, though an isolated storm is possible south of PIT with a lingering surface boundary. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions will be possible late Sunday and Monday with the approach and passage of a weak cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday FOR OHZ048- 057>059-068-069. PA...None. WV...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday FOR WVZ004-012.
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