Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291045 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 545 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Several crossing disturbances will result in periodic rain chances in the forecast through the mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A crossing shortwave rotating around a Northern Plains/Upper Midwest low, low level jet, and a weak surface occluded front should continue to result in areas of light rain across the area this morning. The wave/jet should exit through the morning ending the rain. A few breaks in the cloud cover are expected by afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be near 20 degrees above seasonal levels today in S-SW flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Another shortwave rotating around the main low, and associated cold front, is progged to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region late tonight and Wednesday. A period of rain supported by deep moisture, ascent, and low level jet support is expected with it`s passage. The main low is progged to move across Eastern Canada by Thursday and Friday, with broad upper troughing expected across the Northeast CONUS. This pattern should result in periodic rain and snow shower chances mainly N of I 80 where the best moisture and upper support is progged. Temperatures are expected to average around 15 degrees above seasonal levels early in the period, but should return to near or just below average by late week after the passage of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper low and trough is expected to exit the region Saturday. NAEFS ensembles depict a less amplified pattern across the Northern CONUS thereafter through early next week, with occasional weak crossing shortwaves. There are significant operational model differences in the handling of a SW CONUS trough and it`s eventual evolution and impact on the Upper Ohio Valley weather. Preferred to maintain a forecast close to the less amplified NAEFS solution, resulting in only low chances for rain and snow showers and seasonal temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Residual pockets of light rain, low level wind shear, and restrictions will ease quickly this morning as the supporting disturbance and associated low level jet exit the region. VFR will thus dominate the day and initially gusty surface wind will diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes. Conditions will deteriorate tonight as another shortwave spreads rain over the region again. .OUTLOOK... Periodice restrictions are again likely, especially over FKL and DUJ as colder air moves back over the region during the latter half of the week.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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