Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010947 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 547 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE RAIN OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PREDAWN ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED SOME TEMPERATURE TWEAKS TO ELIMINATE FORECAST-COOL POCKETS THAT SHOULD BE SMOOTHED BY WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING TODAY. OTHERWISE... A SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT...WILL DIG OVER NORTHWEST PA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FIRST SURFACE WAVE WILL BE WELL INTO NEW YORK. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME...AND IN TURN THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STILL STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEHIND THIS MORNING`S RAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS WELL SHEARED...SO IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THE WIND PROFILE WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND THE RISK FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN CONJUCTION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MARGINAL RISK. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY PROVIDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT WILL FINALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THE LAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA...HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE ALL NIGHT AND PART OF MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST... ENDING THE RAIN THREAT. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW CONSENSUS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL REQUIRE A BLEND OF DATA FOR THE TUESDAY FORECAST. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PASSING SFC LOW IS VEERING WIND TO THE SW THIS MRNG AND PROVIDING IMPROVEMENT TO THE IFR CIGS FRM THE OVRNGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEMS ENGULFS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES VIA COOLING ALOFT/WARMING SFC. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON AS LOW PRESSURE COMPLETES PASSAGE OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND IS LIKELY WITH A WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/22

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