Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 152133 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 433 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The arrival of colder air return snow shower chances to the forecast through Thursday. High pressure will then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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430pm update...minor adjustments to PoPs overnight in line with current radar imagery and latest hires model guidance. If current guidance is correct, it appears two main bands should develop this evening, one over the I-80 corridor, and one over portions of Ohio extending into SW PA. The stronger of the two will remain over the north closer to the lakes. Upslope snow over the ridges will also get cranking soon as the coldest air reaches those locations. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires guidance. Previous discussion... A deepening upper low projected to cross into New York this evening will reinforce colder air across the area. The combination of colder air with increasing moisture in the low levels will assist in generating more snow showers, especially across the favorable upslope terrain. Model soundings depict steep lapse rates through the snow growth zone with sufficient moisture overnight across the ridges of WV and MD. Thus, confidence has increased in issuing an advisory for snow overnight. Given the quick breakdown of the inversion height as high pressure is progged to build late tonight, snow accumulation should overall remain below advisory criteria elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually fall through the period and reach near seasonal values.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Building high pressure should end the snow showers later on Thursday and keep temperatures slightly cooler than average. Dry and relatively warmer weather is expected Friday while a ridge develops over the southeast CONUS. Temperatures will rise to well above normal levels on Saturday as warm advection continues. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak shortwave tries to undercut the ridge across the Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Still think that most precipitation from this feature will remain off to our south, and have continued slight chance PoPs where moisture and lift will be limited. The ridge then reestablishes itself through Monday. A weak shortwave may succeed in knocking down the ridge to some degree by Tuesday, leading to the next decent rain chance. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ceilings/visibilities will generally be VFR or high-end MVFR for the most part in cold northwest flow through the period. Exceptions will be KFKL and KDUJ, where IFR snow showers will be common into the overnight. Northwest winds will gust over 25 KTS this evening, then slowly diminish toward daybreak. As low pressure off the New England coast moves east Thursday, gradual improvement to vfr can be expected by late day. .OUTLOOK... A weak disturbance may bring restrictions Friday morning, otherwise the next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ511>514.
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