Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061105 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP. IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT. && .CLIMATE... PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901. MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND 1972. ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960. ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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