Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291848 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 248 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BUT STRATO CU IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY LEFT CHANCE POPS WITH SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS REGION UNDER CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD EXPECT SMALL HAIL AT BEST WITH VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL MOS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500 HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE WARMTH. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST EITHER. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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