Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 032144 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 544 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH 545PM UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED BY A WEAK WIND FIELD AND WARM MID LEVELS INHIBITING EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY. CELLS WILL THUS DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WIND AS THEY PULSE. OTHERWISE...ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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