Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 252157
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
557 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure will keep dry weather in the forecast until
low pressure brings rain to the region Wednesday night and
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --No updates needed early this evening as the current forecast
remains right on track. Previous discussion follows.
As winds veer to the north, clouds should
diminish across northern counties overnight. However, a warm front
moving in from the southwest should bring additional cloud cover
into the region from the south. With relatively dry air at the
surface, the warm front is not expected to bring any rain to the
region tonight. Some bias corrected guidance was blended into the
temperature forecast, keeping temperatures warmer across Ohio with
developing cloud cover and colder to the east where fewer clouds
and light winds should allow for radiational cooling. No headlines
are planned as the growing season has been declared ended given
the region is two weeks beyond the median-freeze date.
Cloud cover will continue to increase on Wednesday as low
pressure moves farther east, although the bulk of rainfall should
remain west of the forecast area during daytime hours.
Temperatures will remain below normal, with similar values to
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will track from Chicago to Lake Erie and up to
Lake Ontario Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing a cold front
through the region. Continued with likely to categorical pops
during that timeframe, and cannot rule out some snowflakes near
Forest County. A non-diurnal temperature curve will see
temperatures decreasing Wednesday evening, then slowly rising
overnight. While the bulk of precipitation will move east by
Thursday evening, colder air moving into the region will allow
for scattered lake-effect showers, although there may not be a
long enough period with a northerly component of winds to tap
into much Lake Erie moisture. These showers should wrap up by
Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal through
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still a bit of model uncertainty with a system moving along the
US-Canadian border through the weekend, and while pops remain in
the forecast, have lowered pops slightly as the entire system
appears to have a track slightly farther to the north. High
pressure will move across the eastern United States Monday and
Tuesday, yielding dry weather. Saturday and Tuesday should have
temperatures a few degrees above normal, with seasonal
temperatures Sunday and Monday.
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR and low end VFR stratocu will persist early this afternoon, but
improvement can be expected thereafter as subsidence, gradually
veering wind, and dry advection all retard flow off the lakes.
Northwest wind, with gusts to about 15 kt, will weaken as eve
approaches. VFR and light wind will dominate the remainder of the
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next chance for general restrictions will come late Wednesday
with low pressure advancing out of the midwest.