Area Forecast Discussion
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992 FXUS61 KPBZ 221839 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 139 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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There will be a slight chance of light showers early this afternoon as a weak disturbance crosses the area. Warm weather is expected to continue until the passage of a late Friday night and Saturday morning cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Made adjustments to PoPs based on current radar and hi-res model trends. This led to an increase across the north where a cluster of showers was moving across northern Ohio. Minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint otherwise. Showers should mostly dissipate during the afternoon with dry weather anticipated thereafter through most of tonight. A few showers may pop up again across the south towards morning in increasing isentropic lift. Overall temperatures will be similar to recent days despite starting off with warmer lows with increased cloud coverage and slightly cooler temperatures aloft. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The longwave pattern will become more amplified through the period with a surface low over the plains tracking northeast across the great lakes. On Thursday warm air and moisture advection will increase as troughing over the central CONUS deepens. There will be a chance of showers and possibly a storm or two with ample synoptic lift, however, did not include in the forecast with a very slim CAPE profile and a better chance that activity remains capped off by warmer air aloft. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees or so warmer on average with increased warm air advection. Latest consensus in for the warm front to lift north across the region Friday morning. Friday should largely be dry most of the day in the warm sector and precipitation focused along and north of the boundary. Latest guidance remains consistent with previous runs in forecast record temperatures across the region. Minimal change was need to the temperature forecast through the period...with only minor adjustments made based off latest bias-corrected guidance. Friday night temperatures will be very mild with cloud coverage and increasing winds ahead of the approaching front keep in the lower levels mixed. Record high mins are currently forecast. Latest timing for cold frontal passage is Saturday morning. Expect areawide rain and possibly a few thunderstorms as well with gusty winds being the primary concern in the high shear low cape environment. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on Monday before having surprising good agreement on Wednesday. Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday, high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s once again a possibility by the first day of March.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Although most locations have VFR conditions, some IFR ceilings have bled into ZZV/FKL from the west, where most upstream locations across Ohio and Indiana have IFR/LIFR readings. Decided to go more pessimistic with the forecast, keeping only a short period of VFR conditions through the afternoon and bringing conditions more quickly late this afternoon and evening compared to the 12Z TAFs. Made little to no changes after sunset, keeping all locations under restrictions into Thursday. Light w-sw wind will continue through the period. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with the passage of a Friday night/early Saturday cold front.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Wed Thu Fri --------- -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922,30) 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 67 (1992) 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 70 (1980) 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 60 (1983) 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 57 (1949) 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 73 (1997) 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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