Area Forecast Discussion
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325 FXUS61 KPBZ 090002 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 702 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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7PM UPDATE...LATEST MODEL DATA IS SHOWING A BIT OF A DIFFERENT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING THE AXIS OF HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND ALSO SHOWING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS DRIER AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE 500 LOW. THIS IS NOT ONLY SHOWING UP IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL DATA...BUT ALSO THE HIRES DATA AS WELL. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AS EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE SNOW COMPARED TO WHAT IT COULD DO IN A COMPLETELY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THIS DECREASE AND CHANGE IN LOCATION OF THE SNOW TONIGHT AND THROUGH PARTS OF TUESDAY HAS REQUIRED A DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BOUNDARY WITH COLD ADVECTION IS WORKING ACROSS REGION AT 20Z WITH MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. AS CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FORM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PA INTO NRN WV AND THE RIDGES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE NORTH COLD ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT LESSER AMOUNTS THEN EXPECTED SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S BY EARLY MORNING...WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COASTAL LOW WILL RACE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH CLOSED LOW TO WOBBLE AND THEN OPEN BY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES. LONG DURATION ADVISORIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND RIDGES WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 6-10 RIDGES WITH LOCALLY A FOOT...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE. FORECAST AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE HIGH END FOR THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN BEFORE SNOW CHCS RETURN MON WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING TROF. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049- 050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021- 029-031-073-075. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510- 511-513. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512- 514.
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