Area Forecast Discussion
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852 FXUS61 KPBZ 181744 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1244 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer, but damp weather can be expected early this week followed by cooler temperatures on Wednesday. The next chance for widespread measurable precipitation will be later Friday and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor changes needed as of mid-morning with obs starting to report drizzle upstream. Generally kept PoPs low but a bit of an upslope component is expected as the wind shifts more westerly aloft. Will keep highest chance values here. Otherwise, Low level moisture and clouds will remain locked in place. Temperatures will be able to warm even with modest mixing and will likely stay elevated, with minimal diurnal range, overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Zonal flow will be maintained with weak forcing. Overcast skies will persist, however, periods of light precipitation should end by Tuesday afternoon as the depth of the saturated layer decreases. Warm southwesterly surface flow will continue the upward trend in temperatures until a weak boundary drops south across the forecast area Tuesday night and flow shifts to the northwest...resulting in cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Stable conditions should result in little more than continued cloud coverage. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry conditions will continue through the second half of the week with an upward trend in temperatures. Daytime max temperatures on Friday are currently forecast between 10 and 15 degrees above normal. The overall pattern will start to become more meridional towards the end of the week...with the next system to impact the region later on Friday and Saturday. Adjustments in the extended were largely based on superblend and ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High confidence forecast of IFR cigs and drizzle through at least this evening, if not longer. Weather patten remains constant with abundant low level moisture trapped underneath inversion socking clouds in place through most of Tuesday. Would not be surprised if cigs tetter around 1KFT IFR/MVFR threshold tonight before slowly returning to MVFR /015/ by mid to late morning Tuesday. Most guidance has stratus lifting tonight which seems odd, however looking at upstream observations, MVFR cigs are out in Indiana and western Kentucky so its possible especially after 3Z in the west then 6Z in mountains. Winds will be from the southwest between 8-11kt. Gusts near 20kts are possible after 15Z Tuesday. .Outlook... No widespread IFR weather is forecast.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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