Area Forecast Discussion
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725 FXUS61 KPBZ 291702 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 102 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled but warm weather is expected through Sunday, with a cold front expected for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Shortwave and area of showers and storms moving quickly northeast and weakening this afternoon as system heads into the building east coast ridge. have lowered POPs far south and southeast ridges where boundary has already shifted north and bulk of precip will not reach as far south. Categorical POPs basically north of I-70 early afternoon will tails off quickly by evening as ridge dampens out the shortwave. Tonight developing mid level ridge should be able to shunt front farther north, bringing warmer and more humid conditions, and a lessening chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on widespread activity Sunday. With a mid level ridge on Sunday much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers and thunderstorms with FROPA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TAMDAR soundings between 13Z and 15Z showed that low level wind shear has dropped, and LLWS has been removed from all TAF sites. As of noon, thunderstorms are mostly contained to a single line of heavier precipitation approaching the northern West Virginia panhandle. As this line goes through, MVFR/IFR restrictions are expected for a brief period. Showers will continue through the afternoon as a warm front moves slowly to the north. Once the warm front lifts north of the area this evening, most sites will scatter out, however some stratus may linger around KFKL/KDUJ. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible through Sun in vicinity of a surface front. Restriction are likely with a strong cold front Sunday night and Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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