Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 162011 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 311 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE WORK ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TOWARD MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. WITH THE COLD AIR RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE RIDGES AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER RIDGES WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT WITH COLUMN DRYING WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WITH SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE RIDGES. AGAIN INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK LOW ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO ONLY CHANCE POPS WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE EAST IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPR TROF MOVG OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS WL RTN PCPN CHCS FOR THE WEEKEND. CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN NRN EXTENT OF ANY PCPN AND THE TRACK OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW. SEASONAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CONDITION DETERIORATION TO LOW END MVFR AND EVENTUAL IFR WL CONT TDA WITH SHWRS AND RELATIVE SATURATION WITH PASSAGE OF THE ADVNG CDFNT. IN ADDITION...SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE WEST BY EVE WITH INITIAL GUSTS NR 20 KTS. IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHRTWV CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WL REINFORCE THE MIXING LYR VIA COLD ADVCTN...HENCE MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD QUICKLY RTN TO MOST PORTS AS EVE APCHS. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RSTRN POTENTIAL WL CONT FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK WITH STRATOCU AND THE APCH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW PRES ON SATURDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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