Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260203 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 903 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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9 PM UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS LATE TONIGHT AND UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE. REST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH CLOUDS ROLL INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING PREVAILING IFR OUT. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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