Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 252244 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 644 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...RETURNING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION. NUDGED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST LAMP AND SREF NUMBERS...WHICH ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT STARTS NEAR OR JUST INTO NW CORNER OF CWA AT 12Z THURSDAY. WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP EASTWARD PROGRESS SLOW DURING THE DAY...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING IT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. BEST QPF WILL LIE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IN OHIO. HOWEVER...ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO GET A GOOD SOAKING. PWATS WILL BE PUNCHING UP NEAR OR JUST OVER 1.0 INCH IN DECENT SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY A TIGHTENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TOTAL QPF OF 0.4" TO 0.8" LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS EVENT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST OF A LBE-MGW LINE. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE APPROPRIATE AREA WIDE. EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP FRIDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO QPF IS LOW. DURING THE DAY...A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SHSN TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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