Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261810 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 210 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONT TODAY. DRY WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE FRONT ENCOUNTERING BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING 60 DEGREES. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE ALREADY SHOWING ABOUT 1000J/KG SB CAPE NOSING INTO EASTERN OHIO. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY WHERE BETTER SUPPORT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXISTS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE PW VALUES AND STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO TRAINING DOWNPOURS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL...BUT IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS QUICKLY...COULD NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT TRIES TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE PASSING ALONG THE FRONT COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TAX
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LARGE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST ACROSS OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE THURSDAY FORECAST...WITH TODAY`S FRONT RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. OPTED TO KEEP POPS GENERAL WITH A BROAD BLEND OF MODELS APPLIED. SLOWER TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WAS APPLIED...BUT A LOT OF DETAILS STILL TO BE DETERMINED AS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WEAKENS ON APPROACH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INCRS PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE UPR OH REGION ONCE AGAIN. ACTUAL TRACK WL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A WHILE...SO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS EXCLUSIVELY UTILIZED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF KFKL...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. STRATOCU WILL LIKEY DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.