Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280726 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BROAD AND DRY HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SUPPRESS PCPN AND WL CONT TO MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS FOR THE NR TERM PD. NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECAST PERISTENCE RMNS PRUDENT DESPITE MDL INDICATIONS OF INCRSD SHRTWV ACTIVITY DURING THE 1ST HALF OF THE WEEK. MSTR PAUCITY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...LACK OF LIFT...AND POOR SPPRTG WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALL SPPRT NO MORE A SLIGHT PCPN CHC...MAINLY WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE DISTURBANCES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM FORECAST WAS CONTD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTIONS OF AN EWD DVLPG HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF/STRONG CDFNT LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...NWD TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SCENARIO OF DISRUPTED DYNAMICS AS THE SYSTEMS CROSSES THE UPR OHIO REGION. DESPITE THIS SYSTEM BEING THE NXT BEST CHC FOR PCPN...POPS WL RMN IN THE CHC CATEGORY UNTIL FURTHER MATURATION OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPS IS HIGHER...BUT THE COLD SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND RAPID MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS IS ANTICIPATED AFTR NXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER VFR FORECAST WITH PREDAWN LIFR-MVFR FOG AT LBE...HLG...FKL AND DUJ. OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/22

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