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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030629
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
129 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MILD WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER OHIO REGION AS A WARM FRONT JUMPS
NORTHWARD TODAY. THE WARM REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY SHUNTED ACROSS THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LIGHT RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME LGT SNOW OVR ZONES N OF PIT...WL
CONT TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS MRNG AS A SHRTWV COMPLETES PASSAGE.
PCPN RMNS PATCHY AND THE BTR CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LKS TO BE OVR
EC OHIO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. LIKELY
POPS...WITH MINIMAL QPF WERE THUS CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS.

PCPN CHCS WL WANE LTR THIS MRNG WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROF
AXIS...WITH WEAK WARM ADVCTN RESUMING IN ADVN OF BROAD LOW PRES
DVLPG OVR THE PLNS. THAT REGIME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT
HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE...WHILE COUNTIES TO THE N ARE EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED
CLOSER TO THE NORMALS. NEAR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE LATEST SREF MEANS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MILD CONDITIONS WL CONT THROUGH THE MID WEEK PD...ALTHOUGH RAIN
CHCS WL ALSO BE ON THE INCRS AS STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THE MSTR PROFILE...AS WELL AS THE PCPN SPPRTG
DYNMAMICS OVR THE REGION. LIKELY POPS WERE EXPANDED FOR THE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NGT PDS AS MDLS ARE IN AGREEMNT IN
DEPICTIONS OF EWD SLIDING JET STREAK AND SFC FRONT.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPECTED TO TURN PCPN TO ALL SNOW BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT ENCROACHING MID LVL DRY PUNCH IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING JET STREAK...AND SWD FRONTAL PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH DAYTIME
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE PRECIP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE SHRA MENTION TO THE SITES
WITH RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THINK THAT IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST LONGEST AT THE NORTHERN
SITES...WHERE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP EARLY...BUT
WARMING

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS COMES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE  RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY
OUT SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

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