Area Forecast Discussion
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909 FXUS61 KPBZ 182155 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 555 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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6PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE CHANGES TO EVENING POPS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIRES MODEL OUTPUT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...PUSHING PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1.7 INCHES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MOST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE LAST AREA FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN. WHILE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A DIURNAL CYCLE...SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALMOST ALL OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF MID AFTERNOON REMAINS BACK ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT THE MOST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR REMAINING ALL THE WAY IN THE 50S. SOME SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. DID NOT DECIDE TO ADD ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE AT LEAST BUMPED UP SKY COVER DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING UNDER A DEPARTING BROAD UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOWLY ADVANCING PLAINS AND MIDWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWED THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. AFTER A COOL START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SINCE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY STORM WILL IMPACT A TAF SITE AT ANY ONE TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...PREVAILING VFR IS ANTICIPATED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY REMAIN UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY LOCKED ALONG AND JUST WENT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS IN THE TAFS AS STRATUS IN MOST CASES FOR NOW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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