Area Forecast Discussion
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223 FXUS61 KPBZ 210205 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 905 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation on Tuesday night. Dry weather and below average temperature can then are expected for the remainder of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The late eve update included tweaks to hourly trends and an upward adjustment to overnight lows as early eve radiation is being inhibited by persistent wind. Previous... Retreating high pressure will ensure another dry night, marred only by encroaching cirrus with a weak shortwave. Warm advection on the van of the next shortwave trough is forecast to further inhibit a radiational temperature drop. Nevertheless, areas which received accumulating snow yesterday may still see readings a couple degrees below guidance given the initially colder start.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Warm advection on southerly flow and limited insolation are progged to drive Tuesday high temperature a few degrees above the seasonal averages as the aforementioned trough advances. That cold frontal system is timed plough over the Upper Ohio on Tuesday night. Model indications of strong differential PVA and frontogenetical forcing seems sufficient to forecast likely to categorical POPs with the frontal passage; however, the cold airmass in the wake of that front is not expected to be deep enough to sustain low level convection/i.e. snow showers for long. Any post frontal snow accumulation should be thus be limited to the I 80 corridor and ridges. Less than an inch is anticipated even in those areas. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, but sub average temperatures are progged to be maintained under broad Eastern CONUS troughing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... More active conditions look to return into the extended as a longwave trough starts to become established over the eastern CONUS. Successive clipper-like systems look to drop into the area starting Friday night. Initial warm advection will mean all precipitation will likely start as rain, but as a couple of systems pass and cold advection becomes a bit more efficient, most areas should gradually change toward better chances of snow by Sunday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Eroding high pressure will maintain VFR through Tuesday although an increasing pressure gradient in advance of the next trough digging across the Great Lakes will support low level wind shear tonight, and wind gusts around 20 kts on Tuesday. Restrictions are then likely with a Tuesday night cold front. .Outlook... Subsequent cold avection is expected to maintain MVFR cigs into Wednesday, but improvement can be expected as the day progresses. The next chance for restrictions is forecast with an early Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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