Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 292036 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 436 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MID AND UPR TROFG HAS SPARKED ISOLD SHWRS ACRS ERN OH AND WV. THESE SHOULD QUICKLY DSPT BY SUNSET AS SPPRT DMNSHS. THE NXT ADVNG SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE WITH ADDNL SHWRS PSBL. INSTBY IS MINIMAL BUT WL MAINTAIN AN ISOLD TSTM MENTION MAINLY N OF PIT WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED. WITH THE RECENT DRY PATTERN...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH PCPN COVG SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WL CONT A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO. AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY. USED NAM H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE TO MOS. ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. CL && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CL && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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