Area Forecast Discussion
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138 FXUS61 KPBZ 051633 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1133 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MIDDAY UPDATE ONLY NEEDED SOME COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP PROBS AND CLOUDS AS THE SNOW-SHOWER SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. DIMINISHING CLOUDS/INSOLATION IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVGS...I.E. MID TO UPR 30S FOR ZONES SOUTH OF I 80 AND OFF THE RIDGES. OVRNGT LOWS WERE PROJECTED NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS AS PER WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS...AROUND...OR A CPL DEGREES ABOVE THE 40 F MARK. PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE PCPN FREE WITH A LACK OF ASCENT AND MOISTURE. RIDGING BETWEEN UPR MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DRY SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER...ALBEIT MINOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE. THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED FOR A MONDAY APPROACH...HENCE LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH A MARGINAL TEMP PROFILE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVR THE ERN CONUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUB AVG TEMPS AND PERIODIC...SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIDGES AND I 80 CORRIDOR....MAY THUS BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WAS CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGS AND RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTS EAST OF PIT WILL DIMINISH AS THE SPPRTG UPR TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EWD. VFR WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST SFC WIND ARND 10 KTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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