Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222049 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 349 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday. Conditions should be dry for the beginning of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The bulk of the rain has moved to the east of the region. There should be a lull in precipitation across much of the region tonight, although rain will eventually overspread the forecast area from south to north. Cannot rule out the possibility of freezing rain in Garrett County overnight as the NAM and HREF are both showing a warm layer aloft and below freezing surface temperatures. However, these two models are the only ones showing below freezing temperatures, with all other model guidance showing surface temperatures not dropping below 37 degrees. Have stuck with warmer guidance at this point. The focus of rainfall on Friday will be along a warm front moving into the region from the west. Many locations could pick up at least an inch of rainfall during the daytime hours, which was enough to cause flooding issues today. The additional waves of rainfall expected Friday and Saturday are the primary reason that earlier today the flood watch was extended to all locations through the end of the weekend. Southerly winds will allow for very mild temperatures tomorrow, with highs reaching the 50s and 60s, with an isolated 70 degree reading not out of the question.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The second 24 hour period of the forecast should be very similar to the first 24 hour period of the forecast, with a break in precipitation Friday night and reintensification on Saturday. However, Saturday night will remain wet as the region will be in a transition area from warm front impacts to cold front impacts. The cold front will push through on Sunday, bringing some definitive clearing to the region. Highs will reach the 50s and 60s again before the cold front arrives.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The work week should start out dry before a large system moves from the Plains towards the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Improvement to MVFR this afternoon as rain tapers off from west to east. IFR will return Friday morning as rain develops again over the area. OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with a series of crossing low pressure areas. && .HYDROLOGY...
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Numerous forecast points are already at action stages across the region. Pittsburgh is already over 21 feet. 3 successive disturbances over the next 72 hours will drop rainfall amounts ranging from 1.50 to 4.50 inches across the region. River Flood watches will likely be expanded across the region. With QPF, we expect river flooding to be widespread by 00Z/25 February.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>514. && $$

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