Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310229 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1029 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT WARMING ABOVE H600 WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE GETTING PINCHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ZONES BUT EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT AS VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE FEATURED EACH DAY.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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