Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 172127 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 527 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably strong high pressure centered over the region will bring a prolonged period of dry weather, along with unseasonably warm temperatures through the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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No updates needed early this evening as the forecast remains on track. Previous... Stagnant high pressure will remain anchored over the region through tonight, with seasonably high boundary layer moisture content remaining in place despite the lack of recent rainfall. With the dissipation of diurnal cumulus, clear skies and calm winds should again allow temperatures to fall toward saturation. Once again, expect a repeat performance of late night/early morning dense fog in the river valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Very little weather of interest is expected through the early week period locally. A narrow high amplitude ride will remain anchored from the western Gulf northeastward through western Pennsylvania, framed by Hurricane Jose to the east and an upper level trough to the west. The approaching trough will rapidly shear out as it approaches Tuesday, with the surface boundary never reaching the area. Given strong mid level capping and the subsidence west of Jose, any threat of afternoon showers would be extremely isolated either afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Once the nor`easter formerly known as Hurricane Jose departs the eastern seaboard, mid level heights will continue to rise over the eastern CONUS. 500mb heights exceeding 590dm are an almost certain bet by Thursday, and will continue through the weekend. Such values would be several standard deviations above climatology for late September. Using today`s high temperatures as a baseline (14.5C 850mb, calm winds, significant Cu coverage), see no reason why forecast highs Thursday through Sunday won`t be at least several degrees warmer than those advertised by the model blends, in the mid to perhaps even a few upper 80s. Have made upward adjustments, and this beginning to calendar autumn may end up being one of the warmest stretches of the year. Additionally, there is a near zero chance of rainfall through the balance of the forecast period. This becomes noteworthy as some areas (including locally here at NWS PBZ) are abnormally dry over the past month and will likely be heading into early drought conditions. Also, for those who have noticed an accelerated (nearly 1 month) head start to the foliage change in the local area, this will undoubtedly be halted by the stretch of much above normal temperatures. Bookbinder && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Persistence forecast is expected into Monday. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible early this afternoon with diurnal cu eventually rising to VFR. Clouds should clear out this evening with another round of IFR/LIFR fog early Monday. .Outlook... Patchy morning fog restrictions are possible through Thu with ridging in place. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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