Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310204 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1004 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AT 8PM COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS DISSIPATED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIDGES AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAINFALL HAS MADE RELATIVELY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE INHERITED EASTWARD PROGRESS...CONSIDERING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH MODELS SHOWING VORT MAX REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION AND LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SHOWERS AND THOSE THAT DO NOT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO LAKE ERIE AND SW FLOW CONTINUES. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE RIGHT ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING THE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH...SO QPF DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT DOWN COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY...WITH IT NOW STALLED OVER THE RIDGES THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE RIDGES TO REFLECT THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE POINTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD UP NORTH AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP STRATOCUMULUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL START TO SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY BUT STALLED BOUNDARY COULD CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH FOCUS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS MID WEEK. A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL CLOSE TO LATEST WPC PROGS. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT...RAISING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS FOR KFKL AND KDUJ AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SITES LESS AFFECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT ALL LOCATIONS AS A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND/OR PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE FRONT HELPING KEEP CONDITIONS MORE STABLE. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE INTO MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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