Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220033 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 733 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures will dominate through Monday. A cold front brings more organized rainfall Monday night. Seasonable temperatures and snow showers return by late Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Warm advection continues over the CWA this evening. As we go into the overnight, a warm front will start to develop generally along an E-W axis near or just north of Pittsburgh as slowly migrate northward. Light rain chances will continue to increase to the north of this, however model guidance doesn`t favor much more than a few hundredths of QPF is just weak and shallow isentropic ascent. Fries && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The model consensus favors the warm front lifting well north of the CWA on Monday. As this occurs, layer moisture departs with it for the duration of the strongest insolation hours as we clear out. With warm advection bringing 850 mb temperatures into the +8 to +10C range, decent mixing below it, and ample sunshine, most of the CWA should leap into the 60s. That said, this sunny interlude will be short-lived, as the model consensus favors a cold front crashing the party in the evening, bringing a certainty of showers and falling temperatures. Fries The stacked low still tracks across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. This drags a cold front across the region on Monday night. Given the consistent model handling, upped PoPs to near 100 percent. The relatively thin precipitation shield and progressive nature of the front means that QPF is still expected to top out around a half inch through 12Z Tuesday. Thus, outside of possible isolated issues due to lingering river ice, flooding issues will be held to a minimum. A more seasonable air mass will rush in behind the boundary on Tuesday, with falling temperatures during the afternoon. Rain showers will change to snow showers during the afternoon and evening, with continued decent coverage provided by support from the passing upper trough. Best coverage will be north of Pittsburgh , but non-favorable trajectories and an icy Lake Erie will negate any lake enhancement. Still, around an inch is possible near and north of I-80 and perhaps on the higher southeastern ridges, with little or no accumulation elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few snow showers will linger into Wednesday, but building high pressure will shut off most of the precipitation by Wednesday evening. Dry weather is forecast for Thursday and Friday, with temperature moderation back above normal by the end of the week as the upper ridge crosses. Another trough emerges from the Plains next weekend with the next chance of rainfall. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR conditions this evening will deteriorate again tonight, especially north of Pittsburgh. With warm air advection and re- enforcement of low-level moisture, expecting a mix of stratus and fog for BVI/FKL/DUJ through the early morning. Southern ports will see the MVFR ceilings and some patchy light fog, but drier air will begin to invade by dawn Monday in the warm sector of the approaching system. A fairly rapid improvement to VFR is expected through midday areawide. A WSW wind will gradually shift to SSE Monday afternoon, generally staying below 10kts .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential continues Monday night with the passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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