Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161417 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 917 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain and snow showers are expected today with an upper level disturbance. Dry weather should return Friday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Update made to issue Wind Advisory for ern Tucker County, WV. Steep low-level lapse rate and wind profile from 12Z KPBZ sounding provide good support for the expectation that wind gusts in excess of 40 kt are likely (with mesonet sensor in ern Tucker County already approaching 40 kt in line with expectation). Previous discussion follows... Main change for this update was to delay the mix/changeover to snow a little bit. Upstream obs/temperatures suggest that snow will arrive a couple hours later, and as noted below, accumulation will be a challenge. Minor tweaks otherwise. Previous discussion... An upper trough should result in scattered rain and snow showers across the area as it crosses today. Maintained likely POPs N of PIT where some lake/terrain enhancement should result in more numerous shower coverage. Surface temperatures should be too warm for accumulations, though colder temperatures in the WV/MD ridges could result in minor localized accumulations. Gradually falling temperatures are expected today in cold advection. A tight pressure gradient should also result in some gusty winds today, with the highest gusts 35-40 mph in the higher terrain of WV/MD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Building high pressure should end the scattered precip this evening, and maintain dry and cool weather through Friday evening. After some partial clearing Thu night, clouds should increase Fri ahead of low pressure advancing out of the Plains. This low should drag a warm front across the region Friday night as it tracks to the Great Lakes region. Rain and rising temperatures are expected, mainly after midnight with the front. Occasional rain is expected Saturday as a series of shortwaves cross the area in SW flow ahead of an approaching upper trough. The surface low is progged to track into Southern Ontario by Sat evening as it drags a cold front across the region. Strong winds are progged above the surface Sat, though model progged soundings show a capping inversion preventing those stronger winds from reaching the surface. Gusts are possible along and behind the front, though think these should mainly be below advisory levels given momentum transfer values on BUFKIT. Cold advection should change rain showers to snow Sat night as the upper trough approaches. Maintain likely POPs toward morning N of PIT and in the ridges, where lake and terrain enhancement is expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Another shortwave rotating through the main upper trough should maintain snow shower chances through Sunday evening. Maintained the highest POPs N of PIT and in the ridges with the lake/terrain enhancement. Will monitor future mesoscale trends in finer resolution models to better evaluate the snow potential. Ridging should result in dry weather early in the week before upper troughing returns minimal precip chances N of PIT by midweek. Temperatures should average below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR ceilings should continue to overspread the area this morning with an approaching upper trough and cold advection. The MVFR cigs are expected through this evening before the trough exits and high pressure builds in returning mainly VFR to the area. Gusty WNW winds are expected today behind an exiting cold front with a tight surface pressure gradient. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely again with a Sat cold front and with Sun upper troughing and cold NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ514. && $$ Update...Kramar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.