Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 182052 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 352 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain and snow are expected late Thursday night into Friday. Above normal temperatures are forecast for the entire seven day period.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Little change in airmass is expected overnight, so widespread cloud cover will continue. The radar has shown a decreasing trend in drizzle coverage locally, and decided to only keep drizzle in the forecast through the afternoon hours. However, cannot completely rule out that drizzle may persist longer into the evening. As winds back to the south on Thursday, some dry advection should allow for clouds to eventually scatter out. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s, which is pretty close to normal daytime highs, and it should be the coldest night out of the next seven. Thursday highs should range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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An upper low over the central Plains will open into a trough as it moves across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. At the surface, this should bring a band of precipitation during that same time period. Have bumped up pops to categorical in all locations, and the timing should allow for some minimal snow accumulation of up to an inch for locations north of Pittsburgh. Although a lingering rain shower could persist Friday evening, overnight Friday and Saturday should be dry. Saturday will have the warmest temperatures of the seven days, with many locations reaching the 60 degree mark.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A strong upper low will develop across the Southern Plains and track to the northeast through the beginning of next week. Although the ECMWF and GFS still show some timing differences, this will bring occasional rain Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Degraded conditions with MVFR to IFR cigs will persist into tonight as low pressure shifts east of the region. Improvements can be expected Thursday as building high pressure supports general VFR. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely again as low pressure develops toward the Great Lakes by Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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