Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251330 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 930 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD INCLUDED AN UPWARD POP BUMP...MAINLY FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND SURROUNDING AREA...AS HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN MAINTAINING PRECIP WITH THE ADVANCING...ALBIET WEAK SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS. FOR NOW...HAVE LABELED AS SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH. OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST ARE UNMENTIONABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD LATER ON THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. HIGH END CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SUPPORT AN IMPROVING SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND TODAY. ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR WHICH WILL BE AT ZZV AND FKL. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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