Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280118 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 918 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Crossing low pressure will return areawide rain for Sunday and early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... No changes were needed for the late eve update. Previous... The early eve update featured a precip prob reduction for areas south of I 70 as per exiting shortwave support and southward positioning of the sfc front. Shortwave ridging will maintain dry weather overnight, but with seasonably warm temperature. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Another shortwave emerging from the base of Northern Plains low pressure is forecast to quickly return rain to the region on Sunday. SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms with that scenario, but instability and deep layer shear remain questionable do no hazard mention will be included. Despite a rich moisture feed, any flood issues look to be local at best and confined to poor drainage areas given system progression. The system cold front is projected across the ridges by daybreak Monday, hence the majority of the days looks dry under briefly building high pressure. Under the subsequent upper troughing pattern, some isolated showers could develop over northern counties Monday night as a shortwave skims the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Periodic shower chances will continue through midweek, as shortwaves rotate through a broad upper trough over the NE CONUS and Great Lakes. Drier weather is figured for Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure travels through the ridge, although rain chances may return for Friday night/Saturday behind the high. Temperatures should average near to a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... After residual cu diminishes tonight, radiational cooling may support a period of fog across the terminals in the vicinity of the stationary boundary along the SW PA/N WV border. At this time, have trended toward low MVFR for most locations south and east of KPIT, with greatest confidence at MGW and LBE. Aforementioned boundary will lift northward on Sunday. Thus, while fog may lift and dissipate, restrictions will still be possible in any showers/storms that develop through Sunday afternoon. Wind with be light and northerly through tonight, backing to southerly toward morning. .Outlook... Rain and restriction potential will continue with a cold front Sunday night. Fronts Tuesday and Wednesday may support further restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/34

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