Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181542 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1142 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A decaying cold front could bring isolated showers this afternoon. Otherwise, warm, dry, sunshine sum up the balance of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clouds associated with an approaching cold front are slowly making their way east. Outside a cu field most of these clouds won`t make it to our region due to subsidence in place. The weakest cap resides over the high terrain due to the elevated heat source and north of I-80. Added a small pop in the north to account for this which jives with the latest convective short term models. Temperatures on track and did minor adjustments to match current temperature trace.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... With the upper level pattern favoring ridging in the east and Jose moving closer to the coast, as well as deepening troughing in the west, fairly high speed SW flow will exist through most of the Midwest. One weak wave in the high speed flow will attempt again to impinge upon the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Again with this wave, shearing northward, a dry column, and a lack of upper support driving eastward make adding PoPs very difficult to do. PoPs for late Tuesday were adjusted to just below mention for rainfall, however cloud expectations were increased due to high projections of upper level moisture as the wave approaches. Regardless, warm SW flow off the deck, a humid boundary layer, and WAA will continue, thus well above normal readings will be common. Fries && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A deepening upper trough in the west and retreating remnants of Jose will allow for heights to go through the roof in the eastern CONUS for the balance of the week. Low level flow looks to finally lose some of its easterly component, which should rid our area of the marine component and start to allow for more ample insolation. Likewise, deep layer southwesterly flow above the boundary layer should allow for 850 mb temperatures to approach 18C from Friday into the weekend (and possible beyond). This will allow for high temperatures to easily jump into no less than the mid 80s even with the shorter daytime hours as compared to mid-summer. That said, SuperBlend guidance is utterly ridiculously cool, and all bias-corrected guidance is taking several degrees of off explicit model/MOS output, hence both were summarily dismissed as statistical rubbish. As a result, the forecast was built entirely dry with very high reliance on adiabatic mixing of 850 mb temperatures from model guidance. This resulted in a continuation of far above normal readings through the entirety of the long term. Fries && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... While IFR/LIFR fog was still being observed as of 12Z, all fog is expected to depart local terminals by 15Z. VFR is expected under upper ridging for the rest of the TAF period, though a diurnal CU cig and increasing mid/high clouds are expected. .Outlook... Patchy morning fog restrictions are possible through Fri with ridging in place. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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