Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171622 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1122 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO REGION. AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AT 850MB THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. PRECIP IS NOW ALMOST ALL SNOW AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS. WANING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS LIGHT. TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES FLOW WILL TURN A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF REGION DRY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS SNOW CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CLOUDS WILL BE EVER-PRESENT. LLVL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL INVERSION TRAPS THE MOISTURE BELOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE LAST WEEK. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ...MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE NW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INJECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM GREAT LAKES. KEEPING AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THURS AS LAKE MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT OVER OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. SHOWERS MAY DWINDLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INVIGORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SW STREAMS THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROGGED. MODELS HAVE HINTED AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING OUR SRN ZONES EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z NAM BULLISH ON THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO HANG WITH ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SOUTH AND WEST ZONES DRY...BUT CLOUDY. TAX && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISE IN CLD BASES AT SRN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR REDVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD REINFORCING SHRTWV THIS EVE. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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