Area Forecast Discussion
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515 FXUS61 KPBZ 021017 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 617 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NEAR DAWN UPDATE TO REMOVE TSTMS AND ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...SUPPORTING LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY NEWD WITH RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY WITH PROGRESS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REIGNITE SHOWERS AGAIN BY TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THAT PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVR THE SOUTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA. STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTED ISOLATED SEVERE/MESO EARLIER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THAT CONDITION SHOULD NOT LAST AND INSTABILITY IS NOT WIDESPREAD...SO NO GENERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTION FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE UPR OH REGION. WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR PORTS S OF PIT. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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