Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271729 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 129 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER SHOWERS EXIT THE WV/MD RIDGES..MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH THE MORNING INSTABILITY CHART SHOWING RELATIVELY STABLE AIR. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO TONIGHT. MARGINAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA INTO OHIO...THOUGH WITH SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAYS MARKS. TAX && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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