Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290505 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1205 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A series of disturbances will provide periodic rain chances to the forecast through the mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A crossing shortwave and a weak surface occluded front should continue to result in a period of rain across the area tonight with deep moisture, ascent and low level jet support. Near steady or slowly rising temperatures are expected as winds veer from SE to S. The low level jet should also result in some gusty winds especially in the higher terrain, though both the 00Z PIT observed and model soundings indicate the strongest winds should remain aloft above an inversion.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... The front and precipitation are progged to exit the region Tuesday morning. Further warm advection via southwest flow will raise temperatures nearly 20 degrees above average. The second shortwave from the parent upper low is progged to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region Tuesday night through Wednesday, with another period of rain supported by deep moisture, ascent, and low level jet support. The third shortwave rotating around the upper low is progged for a Thursday passage with slight to low chances for rain and possible snow showers. Temperatures should be well above seasonal levels through midweek, before cold advection returns them to near average by Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper low is progged to track across Eastern Canada through late week with upper troughing extending across the Northeast CONUS. The pattern is progged to become less amplified by the weekend with a series of crossing upper troughs expected. This should keep periodic rain and snow shower chances and near to below seasonal average temperatures in the forecast. Followed close to NAEFS guidance and WPC progs which steered away from a very amplified ECMWF pattern depiction late in the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Condition deterioration can be expected early this morning as a strong upper disturbance spreads rain over the region. Expect general MVFR with some isolated IFR in pockets of heavier rain. Rapid improvement is anticipated as the disturbance exits after daybreak. The presence of a strong low level jet will likely support low level wind shear, so this mention has been maintained although magnitude and direction has been adjusted. This feature will be also be alleviated with the exiting system after daybreak. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are again likely with the passage of another disturbance on Wednesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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