Area Forecast Discussion
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531 FXUS61 KPBZ 241711 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 111 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A period of above-normal temperature and increasing chances for rain is expected through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... With noon update, primary change was to increase high temperatures this afternoon, and may not have increased temperatures enough. Sky cover is currently less than expected, which has allowed for greater heating. The HRRR seemed to have the best handle on the temperature trends over the last hour or two, and blended in the latest run. This brings the high temperature for Pittsburgh close to 70, and this could be conservative. Additional cloud cover will move in from the west, but no precipitation is expected. Southwest winds will continue to gust to 20-30 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A series of compact shortwave troughs will develop in the swrn CONUS and eject northeastward beginning Saturday. As the first wave acquires a negative tilt, shortwave ridging will amplify over the Great Lakes region, leading to a likely-nwd displacement of precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night. Steady height falls will begin to spread across the region Sunday morning as the ejecting wave nears. By afternoon, the associated H5 jet maximum will cross the forecast area, likely invigorating deeper convection with its passage amid modest instability. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... In the wake of the Sunday wave, a brief respite can be expected on Monday amid shortwave ridging before a second trough ejects from the Plains. This second wave will be favorable for widespread rain showers as it crosses on Tuesday as warm, moist air is drawn poleward ahead of the system. Behind the wave, seasonable air is expected to arrive mid-week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered mid-level cloud deck remains over the area, with gusty southwest winds. A plume of low-level moisture, currently over the mid-Mississippi valley will stream northeastward tonight, eventually encountering the frontal zone set up north of the area. This will lead to an increase in cloud cover across our far northwest periphery, and eventually drop ceilings along northern ports of FKL/DUJ to IFR. Just how far south this boundary makes it remains to be seen. At this time, have the low-level moisture staying north of PIT, but inserted several hours of scattered MVFR for PIT/BVI for the possibility. VFR is expected to hold through Saturday for ports south of BVI. Wind gusts should subside with the setting sun this evening, but an enhanced low-level jet remains over the northern portion of the forecast area. This necessitated the inclusion of a few hours of llws in the FKL/DUJ overnight TAF, while other locations should remain just under the threshold. South- southwest winds will continue into Saturday, but will generally remain less than 10kts. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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