Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161331 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 931 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry and warmer weather can be expected through the next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Dense fog advisory was allowed to expire at 9am, as most automated locations had visibilities rise above one mile. Some valley fog remains, as well as some cloud cover along the counties served by the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Previous discussion follows. Going into the daytime today, weak easterly flow will continue to keep a moist boundary layer in place. With that in mind, cumulus development post-sunrise should be rather prolific and may allow for a portion of the area to go mostly cloudy fairly quickly. Given the current moisture feed, it would seem northern WV and the ridges would see the most cumulus development with coverage tapering to the NW from there. In fact, with weak mid- level troughing continuing to persist over the area, a shower or two forming over the ridges and wandering westward while falling apart isn`t out of the question. That said, high temperatures for the day were curtailed a bit in the areas with the highest cloud expectations. Elsewhere, 850 mb temperatures jumping into the mid teens Celsius and partly cloudy skies should make 80F a realistic expectation. The areas that see too many clouds, however, will surely be mired in the 70s. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Very little changes from today through Sunday as a fairly stationary upper level pattern resides over the region with weak easterly flow continues to filter low level moisture into the area. Additionally, the mid-level weakness currently over the area will go nowhere quickly, so weak chances of showers will remain over the terrain during the heat of the day. Additionally, east-to-west moving clouds will likely plague the area, marring what might otherwise be a fairly easy/nice forecast. Even still, with consistent warming at 850 mb, it seems hard to believe that anything particularly organized would develop given the weak flow aloft and surface high pressure bridging the northern periphery of the area. Fries && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper level pattern looks to amplify through the week with the weak mid-level troughing over the area this weekend finally falling apart. While some disturbances may be set to ride up the back side of the ridge and tropical activity likely to impinge upon the far northeastern U.S., our region will be sandwiched in between. The net result looks to be generally dry weather with well above normal temperatures. Fries && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR fog persists as of mid morning at several sites, with MGW still completely socked in with clouds/fog. A return to VFR is expected by late morning as mixing dissipates the fog. .Outlook... Localized morning fog restrictions are possible through Wed under surface high pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None.
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&& $$

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