Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260425 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1225 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm temperatures with chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected through the holiday weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Dry weather is expected overnight ahead of an approaching weak shortwave. The wave is expected to bring scattered showers to the region today, with scattered thunderstorms also expected this afternoon as instability increases with daytime heating. Adjusted forecast based on the latest near term models and observations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using the latest model blend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model differences. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to continue into Friday, and look to be marred by only scattered convection supported by a weak disturbance today, and another on Friday. The ongoing "vicinity shower/thunderstorm" mention will thus be maintained, but with tweaks using the latest high resolution model runs with GFS and NAM consensus/persistence. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiay weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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