Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181845 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 245 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WK SFC LOW PRES WAS CENTERED ACRS SRN WV...WITH A STNRY BNDRY EXTENDING INTO SRN PA. BEST CHC FOR SHWRS THIS EVE WL BE S OF THE BNDRY WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT EXISTS. COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM BUT MRNG RAOBS INDICATE SOME CAPPING...LMTG INSTBY. THE PCPN SHOULD GRDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE LOW PUSHES E. TEMPS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED... WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WKND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/10

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