Area Forecast Discussion
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690 FXUS61 KPBZ 260247 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1047 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will end overnight. Very warm and muggy conditions will remain through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thunderstorms have come together in a line extending from eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. The potential remains for these storms to be strong to severe through the next couple of hours, particularly in Pennsylvania. The primary threat will come from damaging winds. With elevated dew points a warm and muggy night is in store with well above average temperatures. Shortwave will be well east for Friday with quite warm and humid conditions as high pressure builds across the region. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to build through the weekend. This, and a broad area of surface high pressure drifting across our north will keep our area dry through a majority of the weekend with a warming trend. Dewpoint temperatures will drop back down to around 60 by Friday night, but will slowly creep back up through Saturday and into Sunday. By Sunday, the very humid air mass will return with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s common. This, and a draw of warmer air from the south will combine for high heat indices that may near 100 degrees. How warm we get Sunday may largely depend on the arrival of clouds associated with a disturbance passing well to our north. Model guidance indicates the potential for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms as a mid-level wave tries to flatten the upper ridge. With the best forcing riding over the ridge and staying to our north, coverage of showers may be limited. Tax && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Little change in pattern is indicated through the first half of next week with the southern U.S. upper high maintaining grip, but with tropical system encroachment toward the Southeastern Coast. Shortwaves with the zonal flow over the immediate area would support periodic, and diurnally-supported precip chances for the long term. Low-confidence slight to chance POPs were maintained for that eventuality as per the latest Superblend guidance. Warm temperatures can be expected given the lack of any significant airmass alteration. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and some thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours. Prevailing conditions for the beginning of the night will be VFR, with MVFR/IFR restrictions possible in precipitation. After the line of storms moves from northwest to southeast, expect MVFR fog to develop once skies clear out. Conditions should quickly return to VFR after sunrise. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next chance for restrictions should come with the approach of a front Sunday and Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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