Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 121844 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 244 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL WEATHER WILL CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SATURDAY BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...OUTSIDE EASTERN OHIO. AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO CROSS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE PBZ CWA. MDCRS PLOT FROM PIT CONTINUES TO SHOW A STOUT INVERSION JUST ABOVE H900. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE A BIT FROM THE EASTERN RIDGES...GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR ARE GETTING SOME SUN. WHILE THIS SLOW TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LBE AND DUJ BENEFITING A BIT...I AM DUBIOUS THAT MUCH CLOUD BREAKUP WILL OCCUR FROM PIT ON WEST. RAP SOUNDINGS CONCUR WITH THIS. IN ANY EVENT...AREAS THAT CLEAR WILL START TO SEE MID CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING IN SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO. FAIRLY SHARP H500 SHORWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 00Z SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. IN OUR CWA...INVERTED TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR A SHORT TIME SOUTH OF PIT LATE TONIGHT. POPS LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LIKELY VALUES EAST OF HLG/PIT/FKL AND LESSER TO THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN AT MOST ALONG THE RIDGES. THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY ROTATES THROUGH AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SHUNT THE DEEP MOISTURE EASTWARD BY MIDAFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN LOW LEVEL NW FLOW...BUT EXPECTING ALL RAIN TO WRAP UP BY 00Z SUNDAY...WHEN A SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA THRU ERLY MON. THE HIGH WL SHIFT E MON AFTN...WITH INCRG CLDS AHD OF THE NXT APCHG SHRTWV. TEMPS WL CONT TO AVG BLO SEASONAL LVLS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ADVNG SHRTWV IS EXPD TO SPAWN SHWRS MONDAY NGT AND EARLY TUES. SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS THEN FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE RMNDR OF THE LONG TERM PD. LONG TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HPC GUIDANCE... TWEAKED UPWARD VIA GFS MOS TRENDS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION ALOFT IS HANGING TOUGH BUT IS STARTING TO BREAK ALONG THE RIDGES EAST OF LBE/DUJ. THINK SOME CLEARING...AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...WILL REACH LBE/DUJ/MGW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC FURTHER WEST AS MODELS SHOW INVERSION HANGING ON HERE. FOR NOW KEEPING A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIG AT PIT/AGC/HLG THIS EVENING AND WILL WATCH TRENDS. NEXT SHORTWAVE/WEAK SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIG/VIS IN SHRA MAINLY FROM PIT ON EAST. BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH LESS CHANCE OF SHRA TO THE WEST. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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