Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191804 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 104 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SCATTERED FLURRIES MAY LAST FOR JUST A FEW MORE HOURS AS WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART EAST AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING TONIGHT. MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...PREVENTING US FROM CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING. THIS ISN`T COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT...BUT WILL OPT TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING UNLESS SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW OTHERWISE. DID DROP TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE CURRENT VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WERE KEPT NEAR MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK OPEN WAVE TRIES TO SKIRT THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SFC HIGH SAT AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IT FURTHER SOUTH WELL OUT OF OUR REGION. AFTER LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS SWRLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. THIS WILL WORK TO DRIVE WARMER TEMPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS DRIVING ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TAX && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WHILE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP NORTH OF THE REGION. QPF ON THE FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR AN INCH...WHICH SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. BACKLASH SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT LAKE ENHANCED AMOUNTS ALONG I-80 AND THE RIDGES. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED IFR SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG WILL END BY 20Z WITH GENERAL MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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