Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241153 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 753 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will exit southeast this morning, with cooler temperatures through the day. High pressure will keep dry and cool conditions into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front near KMGW at 12Z and will cross southeast ridges by 15Z. Temperatures look to be steady or fall through the day with 850mb cold advection helping to keep stratocu across much of the region. With cooler air pouring over the warm waters of Lake Erie, limited production of lake- enhanced showers is expected into the afternoon with chance PoPs primarily north of I-80. Temperatures tonight will be below the seasonal average as high pressure and subsidence break clouds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Building surface high pressure will return dry weather to the area through Wednesday. An upper-level trough will dig into the western Great Lakes early Wednesday, strengthening the surface low as it approaches from the west. Modest isentropic ascent across the warm front will lead to a gradual increase in clouds by Wednesday morning. Several models generate qpf with this feature as it pushes north of the area Wednesday night. Model soundings reveal deeper moisture resides aloft, with a low-level dry layer. This dry layer, along with a slower evolution of the parent low, should delay onset of precipitation. Continuing to hold off PoPs until the surface low nears Wednesday night. Likely PoPs have been maintained for Thursday as the deepening low tracks just to our north. A strengthening of the low-level jet should increase rain efficiency Thursday. This is noted in fairly high qpf amounts seen across model guidance, especially the 00z GFS. For the time being, have stayed at or just below WPC qpf guidance. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Brief ridging will dry out the forecast Friday, but another trough will already be approaching from the west. Unsettled weather and cooler than seasonal average temperatures will hold for the weekend until the western CONUS ridge begins to break down early next week. In general, followed close to the Superblend guidance for construction of the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR to low VFR conditions behind a cold front exiting the southeast ridges, with patchy IFR toward KDUJ. Stratocu is expected to persist through the afternoon in cold NW flow and upper troughing, though mixing with gusty NW winds should lift cloud bases to VFR this afternoon for most ports. A few lake enhanced showers are possible N of I 80, so included a VCSH mention for this potential. Partial clearing is expected south of I 80 tonight as high pressure builds in. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for general restrictions will be with Thursday low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.