Area Forecast Discussion
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591 FXUS61 KPBZ 241917 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 317 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Another day of dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected on Sunday before a cold front brings rain and scattered thunderstorms on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Clouds continue to erode from north to south as drier air moves into the region. Although several models showed the possibility of some isolated showers developing in the higher elevations of WV and MD, so far this afternoon nothing has developed, so a dry forecast has been maintained. Clear skies are expected to continue overnight and into Sunday with high pressure building in from the north. Overnight lows will be about 10 degrees colder than last night while Sunday`s highs will be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night in advance of a cold front that will cross the region Monday afternoon. Continued to inch pops up in the forecast. Depending on the exact timing that the front comes through, cannot rule out the potential for some strong thunderstorms considering the respectable wind shear and instability that could be present. The bulk of the rainfall should be through the area after Monday evening, with a reinforcing shot of cold air arriving Monday night into Tuesday. Although warm advection will bring warmer temperatures on Monday, the coldest high temperatures of the season so far are forecast on Tuesday. Widespread highs in the 60s are expected, and isolated locations could remain in the 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Both the 00Z and 12Z runs of the ECMWF kept a trough across theeastern United States throughout the forecast period, which was anoutlier solution compared to the GFS, Canadian, and ensemblessolutions, and was not used for this part of the forecast. As anupper trough moves across the region Wednesday and Thursday, cloudcover will remain across the area. Although the wind direction isstill a bit uncertain those two days, lake effect rain showers willbe possible while northwest flow develops off Lake Erie. By Fridaywinds will develop an easterly component, which will allow sunnyskies to return. Slightly below normal temperatures are expectedthrough the period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Subsidence and dry advection with building high pressure will erode residual stratocu as the afternoon progresses. General VFR can then be expected through Sunday with exception for peri-dawn fog at southern terminals where boundary layer moisture is more likely to pool and favorably hydrolapse in the wake of the front. North wind will gradually acquire an easterly component, but remain light as the surface high settles toward the area. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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