Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020103 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 903 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF REGION WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH SEASONAL LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY ZERO AT FKL. HAVE REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUHT AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE UNDER WEAK TROUGH ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.