Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160527 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1227 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND TEMPS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DESCENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE BOUNDARY SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIGHT...ALTHOUGH COULD BE AN UPTICK IN RATES LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASE ALONG FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES INVOLVED. MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF HIGHER POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING...KEEPING POPS HIGH UNTIL ITS EXIT. BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AND CAA WILL BEGIN AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND PULL THE COLDER AIR EASTWARD. THE CAA WILL START SLOW TONIGHT BUT WILL RAMP UP ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLDER AIR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER RATHER QUICKLY...BUT SO WILL THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL KEEP THE POPS FOR SNOW MOSTLY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... PROVIDING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND VEER THE WINDS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF EXPANSION OF SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO LOW IT WILL NOT BE A LARGE EXPANSION. ON THURSDAY...THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHOVED NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK RIDGE DRIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CONFINE THE SNOW SHOWER RISK TO THE NORTH. NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BLD IN THU NGT AND FRI ENDING ANY LINGERING SNW SHWRS N OF I 80. AN UPR TROF MOVG OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS... WITH A DVLPG SERN CONUS SFC LOW...WL RTN PCPN CHCS SAT INTO SUN. MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN NRN EXTENT OF ANY PCPN AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. RIDGING IS PROGGED LTR SUN AND MON. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE SKIRTING ACROSS OUR NORTH GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN OUT OF MID-LEVEL CIGS. ANOTHER...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE WILL THEN APPROACH AFTER SUNRISE BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AREAWIDE...AND WILL DRIVE CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER IT WILL VERY SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH...SO IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS ALL SITES AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR SFC FLOW FROM THE WNW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES GENERATING LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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