Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132344
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
744 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through tonight. The threat
for rain returns later Thursday and through Friday as low
pressure tracks to our north and a cold front crosses the
region. A few thunderstorms are possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet weather with high clouds.
- Low temperatures well above normal.
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Beautiful evening ongoing out there with just some cirrus
streaming overhead and temperatures well above average for this
time of year. Surface high pressure and flat upper ridging drifting
across the Mid-Atlantic region will keep the area dry and warm
overnight with lows 15-20 degrees above average. Wind gusts have
subsided and will hold to just a light southwesterly breeze
tonight at 5 mph or less. Coupled with mostly clear skies, this
should allow for decent radiational cooling at least for the
first half of the overnight hours before upper level clouds
increase from the west ahead of approaching low pressure.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet and mild night with departing high clouds.
- Risk for rain showers increases Thursday afternoon/evening.
- More widespread rain expected Thursday night/Friday with the
risk for storms.
- Temperatures remain well above normal.
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There remains some uncertainty Thursday on timing and coverage
of rain, especially in the afternoon and early evening. This is
mainly due to the placement and strength of an expected ridge
and the passage of a warm front. The bulk of the guidance is
leaning towards dry weather continuing through Thursday morning
as upper level heights continue to rise. A shortwave trough
will help to flatten the ridge Thursday afternoon, which in
turn may influence how far north a crossing warm front will
reach. Latest HREF probabilities continue to show low chances
over our westernmost counties in Ohio during the late afternoon,
increasing slightly into the evening before higher chances then
overspread the area Thursday night. While chances remain low
due to uncertainty surrounding the timing of approaching lift
and departing subsidence, ensemble soundings and hodographs
depict an environment with marginal instability but sufficient
wind shear to allow for thunderstorms to develop, potentially
organized and capable of producing strong winds and hail. The
Storm Prediction Center currently highlights a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms just to our west across central Ohio.
Deep moisture arrives for the Thursday night into Friday period
on W/SW flow aloft. A shortwave trough rides up the Ohio Valley
on Friday, with an attendant surface low tracking north of our
CWA. Model solutions are still a bit murky with the details of
timing and strength, but precipitation chances nevertheless are
good. Thunderstorms still appear possible along a crossing cold
front. Once again, ensemble progs of instability are not overly
impressive, although 40-50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear may still
be available. At this point, severe potential is on the low end.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend.
- Saturday may be dry, but precipitation chances return for
Sunday and Monday, with a slow trend towards normal
temperature.
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A brief dry interlude is possible on Saturday, with continued
above-normal temperature. Thereafter, shortwaves diving south
from Canada appear to carve out a trough over the Upper Midwest
and northern Plains Sunday into Monday. Smaller disturbances on
the eastern side of the trough may provide some precipitation
chances to our region into early next week. As the trough slowly
approaches, a trend towards climatological temperature appears
possible due to falling 500mb heights. The northwest flow then
continues into Tuesday with deterministic models showing the
potential for snow showers but given the warm trend lately, this
might need a bit more investigation as next week approaches.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue through the night and into Thursday
afternoon, with high clouds and a light west to southwest wind
becoming a bit more variable overnight.
The overall wind direction will back a bit towards the south by
late morning once mixing commences. Clouds will start to thicken
during the late morning and afternoon as the advection of warmth
and moisture increases, but any ceilings will remain above 5000
feet with high confidence. Some rain, generally light, will be
possible in locations northwest of PIT prior to 00Z Friday. Rain
chances will ramp up after 00Z, with the 30-hour PIT TAF even
highlighting the potential for a thunderstorm Thursday evening.
.Outlook...
Restrictions and showers Thursday night and Friday with a
crossing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible
with the front. Ceiling restrictions remain possible through
early Saturday in cold advection and a crossing upper trough.
VFR briefly returns later Saturday under high pressure, before
another cold front returns a restriction potential Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
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SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger
AVIATION...CL/Cermak