Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 070451 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1151 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold weather will continue, but mainly dry conditions will give way to snow shower chances this weekend with an approaching cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Patchy stratocu should continue to cross the area tonight in cold advection and broad upper troughing. Near seasonal average lows are expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A broad, upper trough is expected to persist across the ern CONUS through the next seven days as it deepens gradually, maintaining unseasonably-cold air and variable cloudiness. The boundary-layer wind should remain wswly-swly, which ought to preclude lake-enhanced flow affecting the forecast area. It is not out of the question that flow could veer sufficiently on Thu to enable snow showers to graze areas north of I-80. A compact shortwave trough is indicated by most models to move across WV on Thu afternoon. Amid a well-mixed boundary layer and modest moisture increase, meager instability may be sufficient to generate snow showers mainly in nrn WV and far-swrn PA. Low PoPs were introduced Thu afternoon to reflect this possibility. Low-level ridging will dominate on Fri, which will limit cloud cover and concern for precipitation. Cold air will remain in place during this time, offsetting increased insolation. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A broad longwave trough will persist across the ern CONUS for much of the extended period. Shortwave troughs moving through the broad trough will ensure periodic chances for precipitation (likely snow), with the best chance on Saturday as a shortwave trough digs sewd from the nrn Plains states. Temperature is expected to remain below seasonal average for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected to carry into the overnight hours as current mid-level clouds clear out. Another mid-level cloud deck could begin to develop over southeast Ohio late tonight, ahead of the next weak disturbance, but this is expected to stay just above the MVFR category. This wave could develop some scattered light snow showers south of PIT Thursday afternoon, but restrictions are generally not expected with this activity. Strong west-southwesterly flow will diminish this evening as the boundary layer decouples. Gusts to 25kts could re-establish Thursday afternoon. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is Saturday afternoon/evening as a shortwave trough approaches and increases chances for snow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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