Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201733 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... There will be a chance of rain late this afternoon and tonight as an area of low pressure crosses the region. Near or below normal temperatures are expected until late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No major changes were made to the late morning update. Previous discussion follows. A weak upper thermal trough diagnosed across the eastern Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley earlier this morning had helped cause some very light precip over the Cleveland area but has since diminished as it approached our CWA due to much observed dry air in the low to mid levels. Therefore adjusted POPs to include just slight chances across parts of the western zones. Have also adjusted cloud cover based on latest observations. Recent model runs have slowed down the onset of precipitation in association of the area of low pressure forecast to cross the region late today. Therefore, have slowed down POPs and removed thunder as not enough instability will exist while capping is progged via model soundings. Temperatures will flirt with seasonal average values through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models continue to show another weak shortwave on Tuesday but have trended further south with this feature. As previously mentioned, additional precip later on Tuesday will be mainly south of Pittsburgh given the current positioning-prognosis of the frontal zone. A better cold push across the immediate area will follow the shortwave as the longwave pattern continues to amplify...with dry conditions and temperatures well below normal Wednesday and Wednesday night as the Ca airmass moves in out of the northwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A building ridge is forecast to support moderating temperature for the close of the week with only low precip chances expected with a Friday warm front. Rain chances will be on the increase by Sunday though as a midwestern trough develops toward the Upper Ohio Region. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions are forecast this afternoon before rain moves in from the west late this afternoon into this evening. Restrictions will quickly drop to MVFR, with widespread IFR ceilings expected to develop as showers come to an end. IFR will continue into Tuesday morning, with improvement from IFR to MVFR/VFR as drier air arrives from the west. Outlook... Ceiling restrictions are likely with a reinforcing front Tuesday night.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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