Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170746 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 246 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LOW. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EVACUATING THE NORTHEAST CWA...BUT COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FLOURISH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO AHEAD OF A JET NOSING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...DESPITE MOISTURE ABOVE H85 DRYING UP. BETWEEN 09-15Z...BEFORE H85 CAA KNOCKS TEMPS DOWN TO GENERATE ENOUGH ICE CRYSTALS TO INCORPORATE LIGHT SNOW...DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE. MENTIONED PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HELD DZ/FZDZ OUT ALONG I-80. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE RIDGES...TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR APPRECIABLE ICING. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS FOLLOWING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. LATEST HRRR/LAMP HANDLE THE COLD AIR PROGRESSION WELL. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE THROUGH MIDDAY...FAVORING THE MET BEYOND THAT PERIOD. TEMPS REGISTERED EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY STAND AS THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST THURS/FRI WHERE MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN H85 INVERSION AND IS UNABLE TO DISLODGE. LLVL CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD HEADING INTO MID- WEEK. TAX
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WITH SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE RIDGES. AGAIN INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK LOW ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO ONLY CHANCE POPS WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE EAST IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPR TROF MOVG OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS WL RTN PCPN CHCS FOR THE WEEKEND. CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN NRN EXTENT OF ANY PCPN AND THE TRACK OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW. SEASONAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH -RA COVERAGE DECREASING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP/HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT FLURRIES MAINLY FOR KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE 12Z TAF SUITE AFTER ASSESSMENT OF MORNING SOUNDINGS. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED CAA MAINTAINING STRATOCU IN THE LOWER LEVELS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.