Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211604 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1204 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The chance for showers and storms return today and will continue into the weekend. The best chance for widespread showers will arrive on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Temperatures have climbed fairly aggressively through the morning hours, resulting in nearing our convective temperatures as of noon. This should allow the area to cloud up fairly quickly in the next couple of hours. Likewise, a diffuse frontal boundary lies over the area with a decent pool of mid-level moisture ahead of it at 700 mb. An incoming weak short wave trough will work with this moisture and modest instability ahead of the front to generate a few showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon. As the short wave tracks eastward into the evening, mid-level moisture will peel off with it, and the front should exit likewise. This will allow for a bit of a dry period for most areas this evening. While we emerge in the post-frontal air mass briefly this evening, warm advection looks to be quick to resume as a warm front advances northward toward the area by late tonight. Deeper saturation should return with this front, and modest lift along it will start to generate an increasing chance of showers late tonight into Friday morning as it moves northeastward. Fries && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The unsettled pattern continues into Thursday with a shortwave moving across the area. Again, stuck with low chance pops, primarily across northern counties. The most active weather period for the week still appears to occur Friday into Friday night. Models are in good agreement that another cold front will enter the region from the west late Friday and move through Friday night. Showers will overspread the area well ahead of the surface boundary Friday morning, as a series of shortwaves move across the southern half of the area. If these waves end up tracking as forecasted, would think most of the rain for the first half of the day would be over the south, until the front arrives. This may help to curb stronger convection with the boundary. Still much to be worked out for the Friday forecast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The chance of showers will linger south and east of Pittsburgh Saturday along the back side of the front, and an additional shortwave could spark showers on Sunday. High pressure should build in for Monday and Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather. Temperatures will remain below normal through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR is expected through the TAF period outside of any showers and storms that may develop from KPIT south along a weak frontal boundary this afternoon. Surface winds will veer WNW by late afternoon / early evening behind this boundary as it drifts south. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely Friday with the approach of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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