Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 120225 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WITH 930PM UPDATE...APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL SNOW HAS COME TO AN END FOR THE EVENING...BUT HAVE STILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST IN CASE THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING ANY REMAINING SNOW. STILL NOT SURE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO AS HIGH AS 10 ABOVE...WHICH SHOULD BE THE LOWER BOUND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGHT THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN DROPPING MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR. DESPITE THIS...STILL DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...ANTICIPATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR A TIME BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER. WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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