Area Forecast Discussion
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472 FXUS61 KPBZ 220739 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 339 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Forecast changes to the near term were primarily cosmetic this morning, but included an upward adjustment in precipitation probabilities as a shortwave is advancing into the base of the established upper trough over the Northeastern U.S. Improving ascent fields and mid level lapse rates with diurnal support in an already moist atmosphere should result in fairly widespread showers over areas east of I 77. The previous slight thunderstorm chance was maintained for the afternoon as mdl soundings indicate some instability developing through the glaciation layer as the mid level cools and the surface warms. Clouds, rain, and shallow heights are forecast to limit the high temperature to about 5 to 10 degrees below the average. No appreciable change was made to that part of the forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Residual showers will diminish/shift eastward this eve with stabilization; however, the matured, stacked low is forecast to remain over the Mid-Atlantic Region through Monday. The chance for diurnally supported showers has thus been maintained for counties east and south of Pittsburgh. Building high pressure in the wake of the northeastward exiting low should suppress any regional shower chances by Tuesday, and warm temperature nearly 10 degrees above the average by wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. POPS and above average temperature were forecast using superblend guidance.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The general trend for TAFs will be improving conditions through the morning hours, but the tricky part will be just how quickly this occurs. Most guidance suggests IFR conditions will continue overnight, but observations suggest that clouds are very slowly moving east and that some drier air will work into the region. Have tried to find some sort of balance between the scenarios, keeping PIT metro area TAFs around 1000 ft for several hours, while keeping DUJ/LBE/MGW lower until well after sunrise. Even if clouds do clear out, will have to watch out for the threat of fog, as has developed at ZZV. Although showers should primarily be contained to DUJ overnight, recent model trends have suggested that shower coverage will be more widespread than previously anticipated during the day. Have increased overall mention of rain and will keep many sites MVFR during the day instead of VFR. Enough instability could exist this afternoon for a few thunderstorms, but left mention out of TAFs at this time due to uncertainty. Restrictions should eventually diminish tonight. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are possible through Monday before the upper low exits.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/33

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