Area Forecast Discussion
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326 FXUS61 KPBZ 190103 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 903 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and possibly strong storms could roll through Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday will be the better of the two weekend days for outdoor activities. Less humid this weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Clear skies have overspread most of the area save for a few remaining cumulus across the northern half of western PA, where the mid-levels are a bit cooler. Likewise, dry advection that continues above the boundary layer has entrained to work against the remainder of the stratocumulus. This is occurring even as the upper trough and a decent cold pool transits generally to the north of the area. Model time height sections do suggest some potential for fog where the winds drop off, however given ample drying this afternoon with sunshine and breezy conditions, it seems the chances of anything widespread are fairly low. With drier air rolling in, lows will be down from recent nights, and lower dewpoints will lead to better sleeping weather. Even still, lows should trend just slightly above normal. Fries && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Another, fast-moving, shortwave trough will move into the area tomorrow. Bolstered by cooling mid-level temperatures, developing showers and thunderstorms should move quickly through the forecast area. Model soundings show a speed max in the mid- levels, coincident with at least some modest instability. This, and the lowered freezing level to near 10kft should be enough to pose at least a marginal severe threat in the afternoon hours. Will continue to monitor this in the coming updates. A line of showers and storms will be exiting northern West Virginia and the mountains of southwest Pennsylvania and western Maryland early Saturday evening. Dry weather will be invading from the west with differential anti-cyclonic vorticity advection moving in. Benign weather takes hold the balance of the short term. Lowering humidity with dewpoints in the lower 60s will give us a break from the recent run of upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday. H8 temps hover around seasonal norms /14C/ correlating to daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Bias corrected all blend was used for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights: - Warm and Humid Monday and Tuesday - Cold Front Crosses Tuesday night into Wednesday - Dry and Below Normal Temperatures H5 heights above 590dm yield a warm afternoon Monday, however mid level temps and proximity of high pressure over the mid atlantic will keep the day dry. Down the road, isolated storms could fire due to the elevated heat source in the higher terrain so Monday afternoon / evening isolated to scattered pops may be added. The main weather feature of the long term is a cold front crossing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Long range models provide above average confidence to warrant likely pops for the entire region. With the boundary passing Tuesday night, do not foresee a severe weather threat. High water is also not a concern at this time with the speed of the system as it traverses through the forecast area. In wake of the baroclinic zone sprawling high pressure building south from the Great Lakes offers cooler weather as H8 temps fall below 10C. The passing mid level trough axis could ignite daytime showers mainly north of Lake Erie Wednesday afternoon. Added a slight chance for the aforementioned area. Temperatures were constructed using a mixture of the Superblend and Allblend. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions will rapidly clear over the next hour or two and nearly calm conditions may produce some valley fog, but this should largely be limited to favorable sheltered locations. Depending upon how well mixed the lowest portion of the atmosphere stays, a bit of boundary layer topped stratus will also be possible in upslope areas by morning. Saturday, a fast moving disturbance will bring additional brief restrictions as shower and thunderstorm chances increase in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. .Outlook... VFR conditions are expected the latter part of the weekend, marred only by pre-dawn valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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