Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261246 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 846 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WILL BE KEEPING CLOSE WATCH ON A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED WITH THE WAVE... KEEPING THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE LAKES. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE OPS MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL...WHICH IS WHY THE LATEST HIRES DATA IS SHOWING A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE HIRES DATA HERE AS THEY HAVE PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. HAVE COMPOSED OVERNIGHT POPS IN LINE WITH THE HIRES DATA AND KEPT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AS WE LIE IN THE HEART OF THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. THE THUNDER MENTION...WAS KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE...GIVEN THE PROJECTED COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT QUESTIONABLE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MORE RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD FURTHER LIMIT ALREADY MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE ONE ASPECT THAT IS WORKING IN FAVOR OF SUSTAINING ANY DEVELOPMENT IS THE STRONG SHEAR PROGNOSIS. IF STORMS CAN GET ORGANIZED...THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES WOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS/STORMS ARE PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...COOL ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR- AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. VAST DIFFERENCE IN OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE THURSDAY FORECAST...WITH TODAY`S FRONT RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL RELY MORE ON THE SUPERBLEND ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCORPORATE ENSEMBLE DATA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INCRS PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE UPR OH REGION ONCE AGAIN. ACTUAL TRACK WL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A WHILE...SO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS EXCLUSIVELY UTILIZED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND KPIT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. WILL MENTION VCTS FOR KPIT AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CONVECTION INITIATION IS CURRENTLY NOT TOO HIGH. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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