Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060500 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1200 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mainly dry and colder than seasonal average weather is expected until snow shower chances return with Saturday low pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Clouds behind an exiting cold front should continue to clear for areas E of PIT, though some patchy stratocu has developed in cold advection and this should continue tonight. A sufficient pressure gradient and mixing should continue to support gusty WSW wind overnight. Near seasonal average temperatures are expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper trough will remain in place through the period, with several shortwaves expected to reinforce the cold air and periods of cloud cover, but little if any precipitation. West-Southwest flow will limit any lake-effect snow to those counties north of our forecast area for much of this time frame, with some sagging of any lake band possible over our northernmost counties briefly on Thursday. Have very little accumulation to account for this. Temperatures are forecast to run from 5-10 degrees below averages through Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Longwave troughing is progged to persist across the Eastern CONUS through the period. Digging shortwave through the upper trough may bring a better chance for snow showers over the weekend, with lingering lake enhanced snow in northwest flow on Sunday. Generally stayed close to guidance to account for any model differences at this time. Brief ridging may return for the start of the week but this will be short-lived as the trough is reinforced once again toward midweek. Temperatures should remain around 10 degrees below the seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Conditions are rapidly improving in the wake of the cold front. While wind gusts will persist through the night and also through Wednesday, all sites should improve to VFR by roughly 01z and remain that way through the remainder of the TAF valid period. Fries .Outlook... Ceiling restrictions will again be possible Wednesday or Thursday in upper troughing. More organized potential may arrive this weekend with low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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