Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131725 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 125 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm weekend on tap with lots of sunshine. A cold front will bring fall like weather Monday and Tuesday. Showers will bring needed rainfall Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Not much in the change in the forecast through Saturday morning as southeast winds will keep clouds pretty much where they are this afternoon. Low level veers southerly with the approaching cold front, which will improve the sky forecast for the eastern slopes (Garrett, eastern Tucker, and eastern Jefferson). With increase in moisture from the south a decent cu field will develop Saturday afternoon in the higher terrain. The increased sunshine and warm advection flow will push temps well into the 70s for afternoon highs. This is still about 7-10F below record highs for October 14th. Overnight low tonight will be a few degrees below the normal daytime highs this time of year! && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave ridging should maintain dry weather through Saturday night. Veering surface winds to the S-SW should also result in clearing skies. The ridge is progged to slide E by Sunday as a shortwave trough advances out of the Midwest. This trough is expected to drive its associated cold front across the region Sunday, with showers expected. Left out thunder with little if any instability progged. The front should quickly exit Sunday night. Temperatures should continue to run 10 to 15 degrees above average until FROPA returns seasonally cool temperatures Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: - Seasonal weather to start - Temps trend back above normal Wed - Fri - Dry most of next week Full latitude trough crosses Monday morning while northwest winds off the lakes will aid in moisture in the column to spawn showers mainly north of U.S. 422. With the trough axis still to our west Monday afternoon, clouds and much cooler weather are predicted. Daytime highs Monday will be cooler than the lows have been the past few mornings! H8 temps drop below zero for the first time in a while, but even still the higher mountain peaks Ptype will be all rain if any occurs. Ensembles and operational runs remain consistent with high pressure regaining control of our weather for the balance of the extended. H8 temps climb through the week, but right now the mercury should stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday - Friday. Elected to keep forecast above the superblend guidance as previous shifts have done. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low VFR cumulus clouds remain across much of the forecast area, with FKL/DUJ remaining under MVFR ceilings. Although the diurnal cumulus should dissipate late this afternoon, expect that the low clouds will continue to plague DUJ through the overnight period. Think that there should be some fog development overnight, but only went with IFR mention at HLG/ZZV. VFR conditions will return to all locations by Saturday afternoon. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is expected with a Sunday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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