Area Forecast Discussion
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192 FXUS61 KPBZ 221922 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 322 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A clear and cold night will be followed by sunshine and moderating temperatures Thursday. Rain chances return by the end of the week with a continued warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Quiet weather will rule as high pressure is in command. Any remaining cumulus will die off with sunset, and a relaxing pressure gradient will allow winds to diminish, leaving a clear and cold night. Low temperatures will end up roughly 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal norms tomorrow morning, with teens widespread. Temperatures will begin to recover Thursday as flow turns more southerly, beginning the warm advection process. A few high clouds are expected during the afternoon, but plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb closer to seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Warm advection and increasing moisture will continue Thursday night in advance of a warm front. A north-to-south PoP gradient was maintained, with highest values in the likely category near and north of I-80. At this time, it still appears that most precipitation will be rain. A short period of freezing rain remains possible along the leading edge, mainly in the DuBois vicinity around midnight or so. This chance depends greatly on the amount of cooling that can occur beforehand, which is questionable given the increasing cloud cover. Still, some evaporative cooling is possible depending on temp/dewpoint spreads during the evening. Will continue with a low-confidence freezing rain mention and maintain the HWO mention as is. Shower coverage will slowly decrease on Friday as the warm sector becomes more firmly entrenched over the area. The continued strong warm advection allow temperatures to rise to 5 to 10 degrees above normal levels. A few showers may linger near/north of I-80 through Friday night, otherwise a mainly dry period is foreseen with quite mild overnight temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An active pattern is still forecast for the weekend into early next week. Saturday may feature a few showers as moisture in the warm sector continues to increase. An upper low ejecting from the Plains into the Great Lakes will push a front our way on Sunday with good rain chances. Depending on timing, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. The front may linger near the area on Monday with some showers, before another low threatens to bring higher rain chances once again Monday night or Tuesday. Dry weather and high pressure may then return by the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures are a strong possibility throughout. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Clear skies dominate the area as broad high pressure builds in. Gusty north winds will diminish this evening, gradually shifting to the southeast by Thursday morning. VFR conditions will then carry into Thursday afternoon, despite the increase of high clouds. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions should come on Friday with a front tracking across the lower Great Lakes. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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