Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 281846
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
246 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
-- Changed Discussion --Unsettled but warm weather is expected for the weekend with a
crossing warm front.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tonight a frontal boundary will return north as a warm front,
with showers and thunderstorms developing, especially later
tonight as a shortwave races east along the front. POPs look to
increase after midnight with best mid level support along the
boundary. Most models push the warm front north toward the New
York and Pennsylvania border where it stalls late day Saturday.
Have trended forecast in this direction, but confidence is not
exceptionally high. SPC has maintained a marginal risk of
severe, but with better dynamics well west of region through
Saturday, for now think severe threat not high enough to
Rising dew points will help keep temperatures mild tonight,
with warming behind the front Saturday.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm front should remain near the New York border through Sunday
night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on
thunderstorms Sunday. With mid level ridge on Sunday much
warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins to
break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western
Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers
and thunderstorms with FROPA.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada
Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly
under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the
forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into
late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for this afternoon under high
pressure, with high clouds and southerly winds.
Moisture increases after 00Z as a warm front lifts back north.
Winds will shift briefly to the east before veering back to the
south and southwest. Clouds will lower with time, with most
sites dropping to MVFR ceilings by sunrise and FKL/DUJ dropping
to IFR ceilings. MGW should be far enough away from the low-
level moisture to remain VFR. Showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected as well, with thunder chances still too low to
include yet, but brief IFR visibilities are possible in heavier
Occasional restrictions are possible this weekend along a
stalled frontal boundary. Better restriction chances arrive
with a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday.