Area Forecast Discussion
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892 FXUS61 KPBZ 292204 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 604 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and mainly dry weather is expected for the beginning of the week. The passage of a mid week cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Only real change for the evening update is to trim PoPs and sky cover, as drier air is quickly taking hold over the forecast area. Surface high pressure centered over Lake Huron is resulting in a breath of fresh air with the light northerly flow. Dewpoint temperatures are already creeping into the mid 50s north of Pittsburgh. Clear skies and nearly calm winds should allow overnight lows to drop about 5 degrees below last nights values. With high pressure remaining over the region again tomorrow, mostly sunny skies should continue to prevail. Tuesday`s high temperatures should be at or slightly above today`s highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main weather maker through this part of the forecast will be a cold front moving across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models are showing the front making a slightly later arrival, and have also delayed arrival of pops slightly in the forecast. The main focus will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Have stuck with broad chance pops as forcing does not appear to be terribly strong with this system. With only light precipitation expected, the bigger impact from the front will likely come from the lower temperatures that will be ushered in, with high temperatures remaining in the 70s on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will be the dominant feature through the extended resulting in dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will start out slightly below normal and trend warmer each day as heights build. Limited cloud coverage will allow for a broad diurnal range in temperatures with abundant sunshine during the day and strong radiational cooling at night. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist the remainder of the day. There is a chance of MVFR restrictions before daybreak but the probability is too low for inclusion in the TAFs with drier air moving in aloft and an unfavorable hydrolapse. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions will be possible with a cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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