Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242149 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 449 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS... AND STRONG WIND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... DYNAMICALLY FORCED CONVECTION ALONG RAPIDLY ADVNG CDFNT WL FOCUS THE BTR POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...THE WIND ADVISORY WL RMN IN EFFECT FOR STRONG ISALLOBARICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF FRONT. OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ENDS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z...AND ALTHOUGH A CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS DEPICTED...ONLY FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A ONE-SHOT DAY OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET BACK TO 40 DEGREES UNDER CLOUD SKIES. ENOUGH RESIDUAL LIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL PERSIST IN THE MORNING TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SO SHALLOW THAT IT MAY AGAIN BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE/SNIZZLE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS IS TYPICAL WITH PROGRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGHS...THE BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL DEPART AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY RETURN TO ZONAL AND/OR DAMPENED MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FEATURING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND BETTER ACCESS TO MORE SEASONABLY COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALNG THE CDFNT WAS HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS...OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND...WITH S/SW GUSTS TO 40-45 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION..AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FROPA. WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST 20-30 KNOT GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE...PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR BY 12Z FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. LINGERING SHWRS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS DURING THE PREDAWN HRS...BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW ARE NOT FORECAST GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SCT ACTIVITY. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SATURDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073-075. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ074-076. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ021-022. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ023-041. && 15 $$

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