Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200547 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1247 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Stratus coverage remains somewhat stagnant in the ridges and generally along and south of I-68 early this morning. While this seems likely to change for the rest of the early morning hours due to nearly nil advection, rational cooling across Ohio and areas along the I-70 corridor in PA will likely allow for the development of fog. This is generally south of a dewpoint discontinuity that was quite noticeable on radar an hour or so ago when it pushed north of Pittsburgh. In the more moist area south of this boundary, some fog will be possible. To the north, clear skies will rule the roost. Fog and stratus should mix out fairly efficiently on Monday. With that in mind, 850 mb temperatures seem poised to run up a degree or two relative to Sunday. With a bit higher dewpoints, this will have more difficulty being translated to the ground, so in areas that were clear on Sunday, highs will be relatively similar on Monday. In areas that had stratus on Sunday, highs will likely be half a dozen degrees warmer on Monday. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong ridging will keep very warm temperatures across the region into Tuesday. A weak front will arrive with a shortwave to beat down mid levels heights somewhat Tuesday, and give likely POPs for showers mainly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. High pressure will end showers for Wednesday, with temperatures remaining 15 to 20 degrees above average. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Long term continues to highlight very warm temperatures to end the work week, as another mid level ridge builds across the eastern CONUS. As a trough amplifies over the southwestern US and ejects into the Central Plains by late week, shower chances will increase later Thursday into Friday. Low pressure moving northeast across the Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front east Friday night with showers, and with strong mid level dynamics, a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures falling back toward the seasonal norms for Saturday into Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions for most airports PIT northward are expected through the morning under building high pressure. Higher dew points are in place S of I 70 where cloud cover prevented full mixing during the day. These areas should see IFR/local LIFR fog and possible stratus overnight through early Monday morning. The fog should burn off as mixing begins, with VFR conditions expected for all locations the rest of the day under the high. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with a Tuesday trough and a late Friday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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