Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192333 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 733 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWER ACTIVITY REFUSES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION...CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWN-SLOPING IS POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGES. EARLIER THINKING WAS TO END SHOWERS EARLIER...BUT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CHANGING VERY LITTLE AND ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDING ARE SHOWING AN OVERALL DRYING TREND... HOWEVER IF WE CAN DISPERSE THE CLOUD COVER WOULD EXPECT CU TO QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE. OVERALL... ATMOSPHERIC FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK AND ISO SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE WAY OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO SUPPORT LIFT...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE. THUS...MAINTAINED LOW END CHANCE VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THAT EXPANSION IS FORECAST TO BE HALTED VIA SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING OVR THE LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG CDFNT ACRS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AND DROP TEMPS BACK UNDR THE AVGS. GIVEN THE CHANGEABLE NATURE OF THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS...HAVE USED TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH REPRESENTS A MDL BLEND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AS RIPPLES ROTATE THROUGH IN THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...AND POSSIBLY FURTHER. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT...FIRST FROM THE RAIN...AND THEN FROM LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHORTWAVE PARADE AND A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z OR SO AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES A BIT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY STILL FORM IN THE DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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