Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 252305 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... DIURNAL CUMULUS IS ALREADY STARTING TO FADE AS EVENING ENSUES. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IS ALREADY YIELDING BLOW OFF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF LAKE ERIE AS OF 6 PM. THIS WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH BROKEN CLOUDS EVERYWHERE NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ITSELF SHOULD FADE GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA...UNTIL CONVECTION REFIRES ALONG A SOUTHWARD TRUDGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...DUE TO MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT TONIGHT RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRONT WILL CLEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SUNDAY EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING THAT AREA. OTHERWISE TO START THE WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL NOSE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO TUESDAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. WITH HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT AND MID LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED...ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST IN THE RIDGES MONDAY...OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEEK WITH DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE RIDGES BY THURSDAY EVENING. WENT WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR FROPA. LESS HUMID WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTS N AND W OF PIT WHERE MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING LOW VFR CU CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST PORTS. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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