Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181742 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 142 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mixed precipitation is expected today and tonight as low pressure crosses the region. Building high pressure should return dry weather later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Fog has thinned at most locations save for near DUJ, where improvement is expected shortly. Showery precipitation will begin to blossom over the next few hours as the stacked low enters the region. Much of it will begin as rain or at most a rain/snow mix, with snow becoming a bit more prevalent with time as cold advection increases. Snow accumulation should be nearly nonexistent this afternoon given the warm boundary layer and lack of strong low level lapse rates. Temperatures were modified using near-term guidance, with minor changes overall. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper low is progged to slowly shift SE of the area by late tonight as the surface low dissipates. Snow showers are expected with cooling temperatures, and these are expected to gradually taper off by late tonight. Around an inch of snow is expected, with 1-2 inches toward the higher terrain of WV/MD/PA. An upslope component is expected, though model sounding progs show most of the moisture below the snow growth region which should limit efficient snow accumulations. The ridges could also see a period of freezing drizzle Sunday morning as moisture in the snow growth region dries out, but low level moisture lingers. Clouds should decrease late Sunday as high pressure builds in. Clouds and precip chances should return Monday with the approach and passage of a cold front, though with limited upper support maintained mainly chance pops with it`s passage. Low precip chances could continue S of PIT through Tuesday morning as a surface wave moves along the front S of the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry and cooler than average weather is expected through midweek as surface high pressure builds under a NE CONUS upper trough. Precip chances and warmer temps should return Thursday night and Friday as warm advection ensues ahead of an approaching Plains trough. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LIFR restrictions remain entrenched at DUJ at 17Z, while conditions have risen to VFR at ZZV. Quite a spread in ceilings should continue across all terminals this afternoon, with the MVFR/IFR ceiling line creeping up to the vicinity of the Pittsburgh metro area. Showers will move into the region this afternoon from both the northwest and south, with precipitation continuing to hang on across eastern terminals during the evening hours. With little change in airmass, have dropped all sites back to LIFR ceilings by around midnight. These low ceilings should persist into Sunday morning, and with high pressure moving into the area, the drier airmass should allow improvements to IFR towards the end of the 18Z TAF period. .OUTLOOK... VFR conditions should return to all terminals at least briefly on Sunday night before the potential of restrictions develops once again late Sunday night. Another chance for widespread precipitation will come Monday and Monday night.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.