Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260511 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 111 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with the passage of cold front Monday. More seasonable temperatures are expected for the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Quiet night expected ahead of an approaching cold front currently analyzed over Indiana. Despite little cloud cover beside some high cirrus and light wind, tonight will not be an optimal radiational cooling night as dewpoints will be creeping up faster than temperatures will have the ability to fall with moisture advecting northward in advance of the front. Deeper moisture manifesting itself as stratus will likely hold east of the ridges however in the weak easterly surface flow. Made only minor adjustments to the forecast through the early morning hours at this time to slow the fall of temperatures based on observed values.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across the Upper Ohio. Likely to categorical precip probabilities are forecast with this eventuality, while increasing deep layer shear may support possible severe thunderstorms. That potential will be dependent on timing, surface dewpoints, clouds, and resulting instability levels, magnitude of which does not look strong enough to initiate any alarms today. Showers are forecast to exit eastward with the front during the evening with dry and cooler conditions following on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the closed low is progged to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes, and increase clouds and shower chances for the immediate area. Temperature about 5 degrees under the rapidly falling averages was forecast using Superblend guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The latest deterministic trends are of a persistent cutoff low somewhere over the Mid Atlantic or Great Lakes States during the long term. Have opted for a NAEFS mean solution which is of troughing over the Upper Ohio, without the inconsistent magnitude of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions. Long term POPs are thus in the slight, to low-end chance range, with a temperature prog which allows a recovery to, then a couple degrees above the seasonal averages by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... General VFR is forecast through Monday morning with condition deterioration thereafter in response to precip with an approaching cold front. Generally expecting MVFR restrictions accompanying any stronger shower or thunderstorm, but temporary IFR visibilities and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Winds will gradually strengthen Monday morning as they swing around from the south. A sharp wind shift to the west will then accompany the cold front, with gusts occasionally 15-20 knots. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restriction is expected under deepening mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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