Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170420 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1220 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry and warm weather can be expected through the next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A rather stagnant mid-level pattern coupled with very weak moist easterly flow in the boundary layer seems set for a next 24 hours much like the previous. Fog is already developing the valleys preferentially in Ohio. The difference through morning this time is a dearth of mid-level cloud cover advecting westward that had been present the past two nights. This should allow for fog development across all valley locations in the area through the night and into morning. At the moment, a few locations seem to be dropping toward 1/4 mile, however coverage isn`t widespread enough for a dense fog advisory. This will be monitored going forward, however, an advisory further considered in the upcoming hours. As morning ensues, fog should mix out and yield a few hours of mostly sunny skies. However, with a dank boundary layer, this sunshine will be destructive and cumulus will again develop rapidly by midday. It will again persist the longest ahead of the weak mid-level trough that will be pushing into the SE portions of the area by late afternoon. Skies should again clear toward evening. Additionally, with a deja vu large scale and boundary layer setup, highs seem poised to basically straddle 80F at most locations even without abundant sunshine. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak surface front will make its way into western Ohio by Monday, but do not think the front will make enough eastward progress before falling apart to bring showers into eastern Ohio. Tuesday looks to be another quiet day, although some high clouds from Hurricane Jose could extend into the forecast area from the east. Little change in high/low temperatures is expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper trough will persist across the western United States while Hurricane Jose will move north along the East Coast. In between, weather still appears to remain tranquil locally. Normal highs/lows are in the mid 70s and 50s, and temperatures should remain pretty consistent in the lower 80s and lower 60s into next weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions under high pressure this evening should deteriorate to MVFR and patchy IFR in fog overnight. Forecast similar conditions to last night with no airmass change, though some areas mixed out more today. A return to VFR is expected shortly after sunrise as the fog mixes out, though CU rule and model soundings indicate a sct-bkn CU layer by afternoon under a weak upper trough. .Outlook... Patchy morning fog restrictions are possible through Thu with ridging in place. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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