Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231839 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather today. Low pressure is expected to track along the East Coast, resulting in periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 for the start of the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will hold dry conditions through today as a cut-off low churns into the southeast U.S. High clouds will begin to increase this afternoon, but a mix of sun and clouds will be maintained through evening. Northward expansion of rain will start to reach our southeastern zones near midnight. Beyond that, given the continued southeastern drift of the parent low, more favorable rain chances will be well confined. Increased PoPs over the high elevations tonight, while continuing to keep areas west of the Ridges dry. High temperatures today will top out a few degrees above normal. Lows tonight will be a bit trickier as clouds begin to increase areawide, and easterly flow strengthens. This should keep the mountains cool tonight, while downslope areas west of the Ridges warm. These locations should stay near or a few degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The cut-off upper-level low will dig further into the southeastern U.S. Monday. As this occurs, very little northwest progression of rain chances will be achieved. Models hinting at weak ascent streaming northward in the form of a deformation band, but activity along this will largely be negated by the presence of low-level dry air re-enforced by downsloping flow. As a result, will keep a tight gradient of PoPs along the Ridges, with only slight chance west. The best chances of rain outside of the higher elevations should come Tuesday as the low turns the corner and begins to fill over the Mid-Atlantic. Strong easterly flow will continue to advect moisture into the eastern facing upslopes, and some rain may be able to creep east to west over the higher elevations. The weakening low will then be pushed away by a building ridge through the upper Ohio Valley late Tuesday, establishing areawide dry conditions by Wednesday morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Ridging and rising heights in response to an approaching Midwestern trough should result in dry and warm weather for mid week. The flow is progged to amplify by late week as broad low pressure develops over the western CONUS. One cold front will stream through Thursday with showers and thunderstorms likely. This system will then open the door to more disturbances keeping the forecast wet through the weekend. Temperatures will be above average through the extended.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will maintain VFR and light northeast to east sfc wind into Monday. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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