Area Forecast Discussion
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444 FXUS61 KPBZ 160854 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 354 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will taper off today, as a cold front exits the region. Colder air will move in behind the exiting front which could allow for a brief period of snow showers before the precipitation ends. Next system arrives Saturday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Front will exit the far southern reaches of the area this morning. This will push the heavier rain south of the entire region by mid morning. Cold air advection, and a weak shortwave trough behind the surface boundary, will keep in the risk for showers into the afternoon. With the colder air diving southward today, precipitation may end as snow showers. The far southeastern portion of my region will continue to see the risk for precipitation into the evening hours. Temperatures will slowly fall throughout the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather will return tonight and Saturday morning as high pressure slides east across the region. Similar to last night, models continue to struggle with low pressure and a cold front moving up the coast Saturday afternoon and night. Seeing big difference between the operational models concerning the location of the inland surface low and the timing and strength of the trailing shortwave trough. Still high levels of uncertainty concerning the amount of qpf that will spread over the area and in turn the amount of snow. The overall trend has been further south with the surface low, which is allowing the colder air to remain, thus even precipitation type, rain or snow remains in question. For snow amounts, will lean heavily toward ensemble forecasts with such big differences in the operational models. Coastal low will rapidly takes over Saturday night which will bring a quick end to the snow. Most locations will see the snow end before midnight, with the possible exception of my eastern edge of counties, which could see the snow continue into early Sunday morning. High pressure will return dry weather on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to a few degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Southwest flow between a Wrn CONUS trough, and a SE CONUS high should result in warm weather through the period. Shortwaves embedded in the flow, and proximity to a slow moving frontal boundary, should keep periodic rain chances through mid to late week. The warmest day of the week looks to be Tuesday, before the front arrives. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rapid deterioration to MVFR/IFR is expected overnight. Heavier bands of rain will temporarily restrict vis to MVFR or possibly IFR through dawn. Rain will end from NW to SE today, but MVFR ceilings will persist at least through the morning. Winds will be shifting overnight as the front passes through. Southwest winds, right ahead of the boundary, will gust to 20-25 knots. There will be a lull in the wind gusts directly behind the front, but northwest winds are expected to increase during the post dawn hours. Gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible later this morning and into the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible again on Saturday and Saturday night and Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread moderate to heavy rain will continue overnight. The flood watch will continue as is. Flooding is also expected for specific points along the Ohio and Mon rivers. The point at Pittsburgh is expected to rise above flood stage, 25 ft, Sat morning. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for PAZ013-014-020>023-029- 031-073>076. WV...Flood Watch through this afternoon for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>514. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.