Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200737 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL WARMING AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THE ERN CONUS RMNS UNDR THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UNDR TROF AND ALL MDLS INDICATE ANOTHER IS SERIES OF WEAK SHRTWVS APCHG LTR TDA. CLDINESS...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING...AND GENL WEAKNESS OF THE DYNAMICS LK TO LIMIT POTENTIAL SHWR COVERAGE. WL THUS MAINTAIN AN ISOLD TO SCT SHWR OR TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WL RMN A FEW DEGREES UNDR THE MID SUMMER AVGS WITH THIS FLOW PTN AND CLD COVER. NR TERM TEMP FORECAST IS GENLY OF PERSISTENCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BY MONDAY...EXPANSION OF THE WRN STATES RIDGE TWD THE GREAT LAKES LKS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPRESS DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION OVR ALL BUT THE OROGRAPHICAL SPPRT AREAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE WAS THUS NEEDED FOR THOSE PDS...HIGHLIGHT OF WHICH WL BE MORE SEASONAL WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.. BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO BGN DIGGING ANOTHER ERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF...AMPLITUDE OF WHICH RMNS IN DISPUTE AMONG MDLS. THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED FOR WED PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OHIO. POPS HAVE THUS BEEN INCRSD CLOSER TO LIKELY NMBRS GIVEN MDL CONSISTENCY OVR THE PAST CPL DAYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED MAINLY USING THE GFS FOR POPS FOR PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK CDFNT...WITH TEMPERING THEREAFTER AS CONFIDENCE IN UPR TROF MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL SHRTWV ENERGY RELOADS THE ATMOSPHERE NXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXP MVFR AND PTCHY IFR CONDS OVRNGT WITH BR AND STRATUS. LBE AND MGW WL SEE LESSER CHCS OF MVFR WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT AS GREAT. EXP A RTN TO VFR CONDS THRU THE MRNG AS MXG BEGINS...WITH CONTD SC/CU. A COUPLE OF CROSSING WK SHRTWVS WL BRING LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS TDA...HOWEVER COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LMTD FOR TAF MENTION ATTM. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS RTNS WITH A LT WED CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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