Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 251043
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
643 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016
Dry and seasonal today. A cold front will bring showers and scattered
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry high pressure will continue clear skies and seasonably cool
temperatures today, with the exception of patchy morning valley
fog early this morning, a well as some stratus in the southeast
ridges. Any patchy fog and stratus will quickly burn off after
sunrise. Expect some mid and high clouds to begin to arrive later
tonight ahead of approaching cold front for Monday. This looks to
keep temperatures from falling off as much tonight, with lows
mainly in the 50s.
Deepening mid level trough will be closing off over the upper
Great Lakes Monday as it drives a cold front across the region.
Not a great deal of change to likely POPs with fropa. Scattered
thunderstorms ahead of and with the front may be strong with 500mb
height falls and available bulk shear, but low level instability
in doubt with cloud cover increasing ahead of the front.
Temperatures in the 70s to near 80 far south will fall off behind
the front as the afternoon progresses.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will be exiting east in the evening as the front shifts
east of the ridges. Dry but much cooler Tuesday. By Wednesday
closed low will begin to sink southeast across the Great Lakes
with increasing clouds and low chance POPs, with temperatures near
5 degrees below average.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended as models are in a bit
of disarray with strength and movement of closed low through late
week. ECMWF is alone in wobbling closed low over the central
Appalachians then actually retrogrades it northwest. Other models
begin to open and lift the low to New England by the weekend. For
now only isolated shower chances for Thursday, then dry through
the weekend. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal averages.
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Other than some IFR valley fog near MGW and FKL this morning, VFR
conditions are once again expected today. Front will make it`s
approach on Monday, but at this time, restrictions are expected
after the TAF period.
.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.
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