Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 192317
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
617 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system
crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal
temperatures are expected through the end of the work week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows cloud coverage south of I-70
continuing to dissipate under increasing subsidence as high
pressure continues to build in from the west. Clear skies and
light winds will allow for a decent radiational cooling night.
Observed dewpoints in the mid 40s south of Pittsburgh this
afternoon hint that there should be a favorable hydrolapse as
the temperature drops and surface dewpoint depression
narrows...allowing for patchy fog development by early morning.
Dry and mild conditions will continue on Monday with high
pressure remaining the dominant feature.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong ridging will keep very warm temperatures across the
region into Tuesday. A weak front will arrive with a shortwave
to beat down mid levels heights somewhat Tuesday, and give
likely POPs for showers mainly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night. High pressure will end showers for Wednesday, with
temperatures remaining 15 to 20 degrees above average.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term continues to highlight very warm temperatures to end
the work week, as another mid level ridge builds across the
eastern CONUS. As a trough amplifies over the southwestern US
and ejects into the Central Plains by late week, shower chances
will increase later Thursday into Friday. Low pressure moving
northeast across the Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front
east Friday night with showers, and with strong mid level
dynamics, a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures falling back
toward the seasonal norms for Saturday into Sunday.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the evening under building
high pressure. Higher dew points are in place S of I 70 where
cloud cover prevented full mixing during the day. These areas
should see IFR/local LIFR fog and possible stratus overnight
through early Monday morning. The fog should burn off as mixing
begins, with VFR conditions expected for all ports the rest of
the day under the high.
Restrictions are likely with a Tuesday trough and a late Friday