Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200437 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1237 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Thunderstorm chances will escalate today with severe storms possible.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No changes were made to the overnight forecast for the midnight update, but thunderstorms will become likely over the I 80 corridor this afternoon, and those are expected to spread southward toward the I 70 corridor this evening. Those storms are anticipated with a shortwave that is supporting the MCS pummelling the midwest tonight. Upper Ohio temperatures are again forecast to rise through the 80s/near 90 today, and those readings coupled with near 70 F dewpoints will not only be uncomfortable, but will fuel severe-healthy instability profiles. As mid level flow increases to near 50 kt with the approaching trough, deep layer shear will escalate and support an organized severe threat into the evening hours as the surface front and/or outflow ploughs into the warm, humid unstable airmass over the immediate area. Expect a thunderstorm line or short bowing segments to provide a fairly widespread damaging wind threat.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The latest deterministic and high res model trends are that this evenings convection and frontal passage will be decisive enough to drive the boundary south of the region for Friday. POPs for Friday were thus reduced, then revamped for the approach of another strong shortwave on Friday night, which may spawn more severe storms given the projected wind profile. Models indicate a repetitive pattern for Saturday and cold frontal passage for Sunday. Likely POPs were thus maintained for the weekend along with the beginning of a downward temperature trend.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The pattern of shortwaves crossing in zonal/northwest flow is expected to give way to Great Lakes-to-Northeastern-CONUS troughing during the first half of next week. Temperature will thus moderate back toward, and a few degrees under the average and rain chances will decline into mid week.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High confidence forecast save for the onset and duration of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. These times could vary by 2-3 hours. VFR weather most of the night given amount of low level moisture present. ZZV could drop to IFR vis between 8-12Z and perhaps another site, but given recent trends and no rain at the airports during the day opted to carry VFR through the night. An upper level disturbance crossing this afternoon will bring a line of strong to severe storms moving from north to south affecting likely all terminals if it develops like many of the high resolution models indicate. Inserted VCTS for all terminals starting around 20Z north and 0Z south of the mason dixon line. Brief restrictions to IFR vis can be expected if an airport is impacted by a storm. In wake of the storms the last 3-5 hours of the forecast, hard to tell if MVFR fog will develop or will there be a canopy of stratocu? For now, rolled with an optimistic forecast of VFR and will resolve that later today. .OUTLOOK... Additional rounds of storms are expected through the weekend, and morning fog is possible as well.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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