Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141735 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... After morning snow, cloudy and cold conditions will remain for the rest of the day. A return to seasonal conditions is expected for the weekend before cold air returns mid-week next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A brief period of snow blossomed this morning owing to broad lift supplied by what appears to have been a coupled-jet structure, and generated an extra inch or so on top of what had fallen overnight. The broad morning overcast sky has given way to broken stratocu, which will persist much of today as nwly low-level flow and what limited insolation occurs will tap meager instability. Some of the snow showers currently occurring in nern Ohio may spread sewd into the I-70 corridor, but shear will not enable them to persist with any degree of organization. Maxima will be a couple degrees above mid-day temps, in the mid-upper 20s most areas, perhaps slightly cooler where deeper snow has occurred and air is modulated by the snowpack.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Clouds will linger overnight, but high pressure will build, bringing an end to any snow threat tonight. Although the cloud cover will insulate from radiational cooling, the snowpack likely will offset that insulation a bit, so forecasted minima were stepped down from numerical guidance by a couple degrees. A shortwave trough will move sewd across the Great Lakes region on Fri, approaching the Upper Ohio Valley region late in the day. Persistent clouds and an increasing chance for light snow can be expected as wind backs to wswly and warm air advection increases ahead of the wave. Snow chances will peak Fri evening and begin to wane late Fri night as nwly flow resumes and the upper shortwave trough exits ewd.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Residual snow showers may linger into Sat, but will decrease in coverage as warmer air invades the region and heights rise. Flow goes zonal over our area by Sunday as our trough lifts out and energy digs into the southwest U.S. This will result in continued temperature moderation towards more seasonal levels. The next system arrives on Sunday and will be mainly a rain producer from the southern branch of the jet stream. The pattern could remain unsettled thereafter with weak waves in the west- southwest flow aloft, with perhaps another cool down by the middle of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread IFR/MVFR snow will be decreasing in coverage this morning as surface low moves rapidly toward the east coast. Conditions will improve this morning from west to east, although MVFR stratocu will persist through the remainder of the forecast period, as cold northwest flow upslopes off the lakes. .Outlook... Next chance for restrictions is late Friday into Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None.
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&& $$ Update...Kramar

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