Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170511 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING AND TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AS PERSISTENT 500MB LOW FINALLY ROTATES NORTHWARD. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAA WILL BE GOING IN ERNEST AS THE FLOW IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...SPARKING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND DAWN SATURDAY. STRONG CAA WILL BEGIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE FLOW AT 850 WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. 850 TEMPS WILL DROP FROM +3 TO -3 DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW...COMBINING WITH THE CAA WILL MEAN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND WILL KEEP IN THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE TOPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL THICKNESSES ARE NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LAYER ABOVE FREEZING THAT MAY BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS TOUCHING -4...THE CHANCE CAN`T BE IGNORED. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF SNOW ABOVE 2500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR BEGRUDGINGLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OHIO ALLOWING FOR A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CHILLY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND LINGERING NEAR THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHRA ARE STARTING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE STACKED LOW TO THE NORTH. HANDLE WITH WITH VCSH AS SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR RANGE AREAWIDE. DID INCLUDE EVENTUAL IFR AT FKL...DUJ...AND BVI. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR AT ADDITIONAL SITES AND WILL MONITOR FOR THIS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY...PERHAPS STARTING TO ACHIEVE VFR AT SOME SITES BY 15Z...BUT IT MAY TAKE LONGER AT OTHERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. .AVIATION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU SAT NGT AS THE LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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