Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191825 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Thunderstorms will accompany the encroachment of a cold front this afternoon and early evening.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The late afternoon update featured further adjustments to near term POPs as per the latest radar and high res model trends. Insolation in the wake of morning clouds and weak convection has destabilized the Upper Ohio airspace under an encroaching upper trough. Given the available boundary layer moisture with that warming, convection is likely to continue developing along the associated weak surface reflection/reinforcing front emerging off the Great Lakes. Pockets of dry aloft with marginal shear are expected to maintain severe potential for wind gusts and hail until passage of the system early this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Building high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned system will result in a dry and seasonable Sunday with slightly lower dewpoints/humidity. Warm, moist advection with flat ridging in advance of a midwestern shortwave as per the latest model solutions indicate increased humidity with a rapid temperature moderation above the averages for Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The aforementioned midwest trough/associated front are likely to provide the next precip chance by Tuesday. Eastern CONUS troughing is then forecast to support temperatures a few degrees under the averages for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Numerous thunderstorms can be expected as a cold front crosses the region this afternoon/early evening. VCTS and tempo TS were included for terminals with the most likely timing. VFR will return in the wake of the showers and thunderstorms, although with clearing and winds calming, some pre-dawn fog could develop. This will likely be dependent on the extent and amount of rainfall this evening. Surface flow will generally remain from the west at 10kts with occasional gusts to 15kts. Winds will then calm tonight as high pressure begins to build in. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early Wed cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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