Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 120021 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 821 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Crossing low pressure will bring occasional showers to the area through tonight. Light rain chances will continue Thursday before the low dissipates. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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820pm update...convection holding on just ahead of surface cold front. Obs showing high surface dewpoints pooling just ahead of the boundary, which is aiding the development and intensity of the showers, and also allowing for brief heavy downpours. Activity will continue to drift eastward, and should weaken during the rest of the evening. Previous discussion... Low will continue to slide south of lake Erie tonight, making very little progress through Thursday morning. This should lend to at least low chance PoPs for light rain and/or drizzle through much of the night as the upper level shortwave departs and drying takes place. Despite some cooling expected aloft, cloud cover and precip will likely hold temperatures up, though not as warm as last night lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lingering low level moisture in SE flow should maintain a light rain chance through Friday, mainly across the higher terrain where an upslope component is progged. Elsewhere, mainly dry weather is expected under shortwave ridging by late Thursday, though the low level moisture should maintain some clouds. Above average temperatures are expected to continue. Strengthening southwest flow under the building ridge will support a unseasonably warm and dry conditions on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper ridge is progged to break down Sunday as a trough ejects out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This trough should return rain chances by Sunday night as a cold front crosses, with pretty good agreement amongst the operational guidance. Northwest flow behind the system will maintain shower chances Monday with seasonably cool temperatures anticipated with notable cooling aloft - only because it hasn`t really happened thus far this fall. Surface high pressure is then progged to build under the trough with a return to dry weather and a return to seasonable temperatures through midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Improvement in cigs this afternoon as a the dry slot pushes in and we see some breaks in the cloud cover. Model soundings continue to show marginal instability through the afternoon which should be enough to kick off some scattered showers and possibly a few lightning strikes. Saturated lower levels look sufficiently deep for drizzle overnight with IFR to LIFR cigs/vis restrictions. .Outlook... Occasional restrictions may continue into Thursday with lingering low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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