Area Forecast Discussion
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702 FXUS61 KPBZ 190514 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1214 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions are largely expected until the next frontal system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Only minor changes to the overnight period. Have adjusted PoPs over the south with the scattered light showers that have developed with the passing shortwave trough. Expect showers to remain suppressed to the far south where the lift and deepest moisture will remain. Temperatures have been modified with a blend of hires guidance. Expect some morning clouds across a good portion of the area, as a period of weak cold air advection swings through behind the exiting shortwave trough. Most of the clouds will decay by the afternoon, with the exception of the southeastern ridges, where models are showing low-level moisture getting trapped under a strengthening inversion. It appears this inversion will erode by late afternoon over the highest elevations. With the cloud cover and weak cold air advection, temperatures will not be as warm as Saturday but will still be well above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Strong ridging builds in the wake of the departing low through this period, with 500mb heights approaching 576dam by Tuesday morning. With nearly clear skies and warm advection, expect the continuation of very warm temperatures through Tuesday, before a cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon/night. With such a strong ridge in place over the east, have slowed the onset of showers from previous forecast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. Despite the passage of the front Tuesday night, mid-level ridging will quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the central Plains by the end of period. Looks like a return to more normal temperatures by the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevailing with southwest winds diminishing to 5-8 kts this evening. Clouds will increase with only a few sprinkles expected at KMGW as a weak mid level circulation shears out across the Mid-Atlantic states. Weak cool advection looks to produce a period of MVFR stratus at most ports late night into early Sunday. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures February 18: TODAY PREVIOUS RECORD Pittsburgh, PA 68 66 (2011) Zanesville, OH 69 64 (2011/1994) DuBois, PA 64 57 (1981) Wheeling, WV 68 60 (2008) New Philadelphia,OH 69 62 (1961) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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