Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201945 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 345 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances will increase tonight as a weak front encroaches on the Upper Ohio Region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Updated issues for aviation section. Previous... Recent model runs have slowed down the onset of precipitation in association of the area of low pressure forecast to cross the region late today. Therefore, have slowed down POPs and confined thunder to only the southwest zones as elevated instability may be progged in through there. Temperatures will flirt with the seasonal averages through the period. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much of the region will be dry Tuesday with the exception of the ridges in the morning as low level moisture may be slow to exit the area. Another weak shortwave trough forecast by models to cross Tuesday night will be accompanied with very little moisture and lift. Have only slight chance to low chance precip to the far south with this feature as the favorable location within the base of the trough passes south of the CWA. Cool northerly flow Wednesday through early Thursday will drop temperatures to below normal values before ridging and a quick transition to southerly flow begin to help slightly warm temperatures by the end of the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Moisture is progged to increase in response of an upper low stationed over the southern plains. This feature will slowly shift towards the Great Lakes and increasing rain chances with a warm front on Friday followed by the approaching cold front over the weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will deteriorate this evening as showers encroach in advance of a weak cold front. Expect MVFR and IFR cigs in the pre dawn hours. Improvement can be expected with mid-Tuesday subsidence and dry advection. Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a reinforcing front Tuesday night. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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