Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 170831
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Well above normal temperatures will continue through the first
half of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Area of showers has held together a bit better than expected, and
POPs have been raised through sunrise farther south and east.
Remainder of forecast unchanged.
A weak shortwave and surface boundary will slide east this morning
across the Great Lakes, with chance POPs before daybreak this
morning north of I-70, increasing to likely POPs north of I-80
as system exits. Showers will diminish later this morning as a
mid level ridge begins to build over the region. Clouds and
southerly low level flow will warm temperatures 15 to 20 degrees
above average through tonight. Stronger warm advection ahead of an
approaching mid level trough will push temperatures toward record
values Tuesday, see the climate section below for details. By late
day Tuesday the cold front associated with the trough will bring
a chance of showers or a thunderstorm across northwest PA.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal boundary will stall and begin to wash out Tuesday night
into Wednesday, with chance POPs and continued mild temperatures.
On Thursday a wave of low pressure looks to develop on the front
with increasing shower chances, as a mid level trough deepens into
the Great Lakes. Good agreement between the ECMWF and GFS, and a
blend was used to iron out timing differences.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much cooler temperatures will move into the region through the
weekend, with the mid level trough deepening over the eastern
1/3rd of the country. Scattered showers will remain through
Saturday in cold advection and impulses in northwest flow, with
dry and cool conditions by Sunday. A blend of models was used for
much of the extended period.
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
General vfr forecast for the period. Scattered showers will pass
through the area overnight, but currently, rain is light and not
causing restrictions, and expect this to continue as they move
across all ports. Brief mvfr restrictions are possible at FKL/DUJ
as dawn approaches, so have covered this with tempo group. Once
the mid-deck clears the area later this morning, south winds will
increase with gusts to 20kts possible at all ports during the
.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will be with a system that enters
the region Tuesday night and lingers all the way through Friday,
with the greatest chance for restrictions likely to be Thursday and
Well above average temperatures are expected through mid week. The
best potential for reaching near record or record high
temperatures is expected on Tuesday. Below are the Tuesday Oct
18th records and year of occurrence for selected sites.
PIT...83 set in 1938
MGW...83 set in 1963
ZZV...81 set in 1964
PHD...83 set in 1968
HLG...79 set in 1950
DUJ...79 set in 1963