Area Forecast Discussion
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185 FXUS61 KPBZ 270431 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1231 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Eastern CONUS ridging is expected to continue today. Dry weather is expected overnight. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, though the proximity of the ridge and lack of significant instability should limit this to isolated coverage. Temperatures are expected to remain 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Diurnal chances for showers/storms can be expected each day with daytime heating but there does not appear to be any significant features to focus activity until late on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will persist with only brief peri-dawn mvfr fog limited by mid/upr cloudiness and relatively low crossover temperatures. An isolated shower or storm is possible this afternoon, but confidence in coverage and placement is not sufficient for TAF inclusion. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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