Area Forecast Discussion
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224 FXUS61 KPBZ 180719 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 319 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF A TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED TODAY AS RIDGING ERODES WITH THE ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MID WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED MINIMALLY USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LIMITATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY EVENING IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFTER MONDAY EVENING AS MAIN FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY TUESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED UNTIL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING UNDER A DEPARTING BROAD UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOWLY ADVANCING PLAINS AND MIDWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWED THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. AFTER A COOL START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS UNDER UPPER RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO OCCASIONAL MVFR IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH DUJ SHOULD SEE IFR ACCORDING TO MODEL PROGGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MAINLY VFR CU LAYER DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ADVANCES. MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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