Area Forecast Discussion
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009 FXUS61 KPBZ 250739 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 339 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and seasonal today. A cold front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Dry high pressure will continue clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures today, with the exception of patchy morning valley fog early this morning, a well as some stratus in the southeast ridges. Any patchy fog and stratus will quickly burn off after sunrise. Expect some mid and high clouds to begin to arrive later tonight ahead of approaching cold front for Monday. This looks to keep temperatures from falling off as much tonight, with lows mainly in the 50s. Deepening mid level trough will be closing off over the upper Great Lakes Monday as it drives a cold front across the region. Not a great deal of change to likely POPs with fropa. Scattered thunderstorms ahead of and with the front may be strong with 500mb height falls and available bulk shear, but low level instability in doubt with cloud cover increasing ahead of the front. Temperatures in the 70s to near 80 far south will fall off behind the front as the afternoon progresses.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Showers will be exiting east in the evening as the front shifts east of the ridges. Dry but much cooler Tuesday. By Wednesday closed low will begin to sink southeast across the Great Lakes with increasing clouds and low chance POPs, with temperatures near 5 degrees below average.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended as models are in a bit of disarray with strength and movement of closed low through late week. ECMWF is alone in wobbling closed low over the central Appalachians then actually retrogrades it northwest. Other models begin to open and lift the low to New England by the weekend. For now only isolated shower chances for Thursday, then dry through the weekend. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal averages.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... General VFR can then be expected through Sunday with exception for some MVFR/IFR fog at southern terminals through sunrise, where boundary layer moisture is more likely to pool in the wake of the front. North wind will gradually acquire an easterly component, but remain light as the surface high settles toward the area. VFR conditions will return to all sites by Sunday morning as high pressure holds through the weekend. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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