Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170831 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 431 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures will continue through the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Area of showers has held together a bit better than expected, and POPs have been raised through sunrise farther south and east. Remainder of forecast unchanged. A weak shortwave and surface boundary will slide east this morning across the Great Lakes, with chance POPs before daybreak this morning north of I-70, increasing to likely POPs north of I-80 as system exits. Showers will diminish later this morning as a mid level ridge begins to build over the region. Clouds and southerly low level flow will warm temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average through tonight. Stronger warm advection ahead of an approaching mid level trough will push temperatures toward record values Tuesday, see the climate section below for details. By late day Tuesday the cold front associated with the trough will bring a chance of showers or a thunderstorm across northwest PA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Frontal boundary will stall and begin to wash out Tuesday night into Wednesday, with chance POPs and continued mild temperatures. On Thursday a wave of low pressure looks to develop on the front with increasing shower chances, as a mid level trough deepens into the Great Lakes. Good agreement between the ECMWF and GFS, and a blend was used to iron out timing differences. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Much cooler temperatures will move into the region through the weekend, with the mid level trough deepening over the eastern 1/3rd of the country. Scattered showers will remain through Saturday in cold advection and impulses in northwest flow, with dry and cool conditions by Sunday. A blend of models was used for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... General vfr forecast for the period. Scattered showers will pass through the area overnight, but currently, rain is light and not causing restrictions, and expect this to continue as they move across all ports. Brief mvfr restrictions are possible at FKL/DUJ as dawn approaches, so have covered this with tempo group. Once the mid-deck clears the area later this morning, south winds will increase with gusts to 20kts possible at all ports during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will be with a system that enters the region Tuesday night and lingers all the way through Friday, with the greatest chance for restrictions likely to be Thursday and Thursday night. && .CLIMATE... Well above average temperatures are expected through mid week. The best potential for reaching near record or record high temperatures is expected on Tuesday. Below are the Tuesday Oct 18th records and year of occurrence for selected sites. PIT...83 set in 1938 MGW...83 set in 1963 ZZV...81 set in 1964 PHD...83 set in 1968 HLG...79 set in 1950 DUJ...79 set in 1963 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.