Area Forecast Discussion
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157 FXUS61 KPBZ 222248 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 648 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep the weather warm and dry into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Very few changes made to previous forecast through tonight. Clear and calm conditions are generally expected to linger through pre-dawn Friday, but a few high clouds could stream in by sunrise. With very little change in airmass from the previous several days, bias-corrected MOS numbers were used to modify the persistence forecast for low temperatures, which will remain above normal. Friday will feature mostly sunny skies once again, but clouds should begin to increase across the north by the afternoon. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out across our extreme northeastern counties Friday evening as the front begins descendingsouthward, but considerable dry air in place will be difficult to overcome. Bumped up Friday high temperatures several degrees. MOS guidance continues to be on the cool side of verification, and with increasing southern flow, there shouldn`t be any reason to not attain max temperatures that were reached today. TAx
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Continued dry weather and well above normal temperatures on Friday. A weak frontal boundary will cross the area Friday evening/night but no precipitation is forecast as moisture is limited and the better dynamics will be well north of the forecast area. The only noticeable change will be a period of increased cloud coverage and temperatures finally decreasing back to near normal values. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry and seasonably cool under high pressure Sunday and Monday. Only minor changes in the forecast into the middle of next week as models show little agreement on next front. Used the superblend for the long term period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prevailing VFR is expected under high pressure through the period. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... No widespread restrictions are expected as high pressure will continue to dominate over the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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