Area Forecast Discussion
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609 FXUS61 KPBZ 252233 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 633 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures will continue into next week. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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No major changes needed with this update. Modest adjustments were made next 24 hours to PoPs to add detail based on hi-res model timing of ongoing showers and convective development tomorrow. Previous discussion follows... Cold front remains quite evident in surface observations, with 3pm temperatures of 39 degrees in Erie, 51 degrees in Meadville and 69 degrees in New Castle. Even so, no automated stations were reporting precipitation in Pennsylvania, with all rain contained to New York. The HRRR/RAP show some isolated showers through the early evening near I 80, and have elected to just keep slight chance pops overnight. Overnight temperatures will be dependent on exactly how far south the front shifts overnight, although temps should still remain well above normal values which would range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Low pressure will track towards Chicago by late Sunday afternoon, bringing an occluded front across eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Models are still showing a bit of spread in the arrival of precipitation, which would also impact instability potential for thunderstorms. CAPE values appear to be rather low, although some decent wind shear will be present. Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms for all locations, and half a dozen counties in our southwestern zones are under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in the SPC Convective Outlook. Another warm day is expected tomorrow, but highs will be about 5-10 degrees cooler as a result of the thicker cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The occluded front will cross the region Sunday night, with the chance of thunderstorms continuing through the evening hours. While the bulk of the rain will move east by Monday morning, some lingering showers will remain possible. After a brief period of dry weather, a cold front crossing the region Tuesday will bring another round of showers. While the precipitation with that front doesn`t look as organized as previous model runs, have decided to stick with likely pops for now. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... With high pressure settling in behind Tuesday`s cold front and northerly flow developing, dry and seasonable weather is expected Tuesday night through Thursday. By Thursday evening the GFS and ECMWF begin to show diverging forecasts, with one model showing low pressure over Lake Huron by Saturday morning and the other model showing low pressure across Tennessee. Have stuck close to the Superblend through this part of the forecast. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface winds will veer over the course of the day as a front slowly transitions south over the region, however, VFR levels should largely be maintained. Outlook... Widespread restrictions are likely on Sunday with crossing low pressure, and again with a Monday night cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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