Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230834 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 334 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY UNTIL SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LLVL CLDS WL RMN LOCKED UNDER A TEMP INVERSION THIS MRNG. SBSDNC UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LLVL CLDS TO BREAK...THOUGH MID LVL CLDS WL BE INCRG AHD OF THE NXT APCHG SHRTWV. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST BASED ON THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE APCHG SHRTWV WL CROSS THE ERN CONUS TNGT AS A DVLPG SFC LOW TRACKS FM THE GULF COAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. RECENT MDL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE NRN FLANK OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FURTHER N INTO OUR RGN...THOUGH THEY CONT TO VARY FM RUN TO RUN ON SPECIFICS. PREFERRED THE MORE CONSISTENT SREF SOLN TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES. GENLY EXPG 2-4 INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND MD...AND ISSUED A WINTER WEA ADVY FOR THIS AREA. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRZG RAIN TO MIX IN ALSO. LESSER AMTS ARE EXPD FURTHER N AND W WHERE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN ERLY AS WELL. THE SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE RGN SAT...THOUGH SOME LGT LINGERING UPSLOPE SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL AS THE AREA RMNS UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG. A DEEPENING SHRTWV IS EXPD TO MOVE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN INTO MON. MDL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN PLACEMENT OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOWS AND HOW MUCH WRM ADVCTN OCCURS AHD OF THEM...WHICH WL IMPACT SNWFALL AMTS. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES ADVY LVL SNWFALL IS LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WL CONT TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR TO LCL IFR CIGS WL PERSIST THROUGH THE MRNG AS SBSDNCE INVERSION SLOWLY LWRS. IFR IS STILL EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ THROUGH THE PERIDAWN HRS. SHRTWV RIDGING IN ADVN OF DEEPENING LOW OVR THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECT TO INCRS SBSDNC SUFFICIENTLY TO SPPRT VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT CONDITION DETERIORATION ONCE AGAIN TNGT...PRIMARILY TO MVFR...AS THE WRN FLANK OF MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRES CLIPS THE AREA. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS S AND E OF PIT ON SATURDAY...AND OVR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
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&& $$ 07/15

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