Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161224 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 824 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Back to back dry days for the first time in two weeks. Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected today into next week. Scattered storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No changes needed for the morning update. Shallow fog will burn off by 14Z. Previous discussion below... Surface high pressure will erode today as a large trough and its associated surface cold front moves through the Northern and Western Great Lakes. The cold front will move slowly southeastward today, as the upper level support in the trough axis splits, with one part of the energy diving southward over Southern Indiana and Southern Ohio and the other part drives northward, over Southern Canada, toward the main upper low. This will keep and showers north and west of the area. Weak warm air advection is expected later today as winds at the lower and mid-levels swing toward the southwest. This will promote warmer temperatures, closer to seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front will attempt to move through the area tonight, but will stall as it waits for the main trough axis. The axis will not swing through until Monday, and it will take all day to do so. With the surface boundary and upper level system, will keep in the risk for showers or storms tonight and Monday. More widespread and organized activity is expected on Monday as the main upper level support moves through. Trough axis will finally shift over Eastern PA by early Tuesday, and in response, an impressive ridge will quickly build into the Upper Midwest. Upper level heights will rise on Tuesday as the ridge spreads eastward. With the ridge building in, expect Tuesday to be dry and a bit warmer. Its possible that convection could develop just east of the main dome of high pressure, most likely over the ridges, with daytime heating. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Eastern ridge should keep most of the area dry and warm through much of the week. Ridge will begin to break down by late week, with the passage of a series of upper level waves. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Morning ground fog has quickly dissipated. Light variable winds this morning will turn southwest this afternoon. VFR weather entire forecast period. .OUTLOOK... Low pressure passing through the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for restrictions on Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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