Area Forecast Discussion
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398 FXUS61 KPBZ 241858 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 158 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front tonight will bring rain and gusty winds. Temperatures behind the front will steadily drop back to near normal by Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Skies will generally be cloud free this evening as the diurnally driven cu dissipate and the cold front still well off to the west. The cold front will advance into our western zones near midnight as the surface low deepens near Lake Huron. A line of rain showers will accompany the cold front, with embedded thunderstorms possible. Timing of the frontal passage will not be conducive to prolonged severe threat, although modest buoyancy and deep shear along the boundary could support strong to isolated severe elements into eastern Ohio. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal risk east towards Pittsburgh. Strong and gusty winds are likely as the front passes and again behind as the pressure gradient tightens and cold advection begins. A lull in precipitation is expected behind the front Saturday evening. Eventually, any remaining moisture will be squeezed out in the form of scattered rain showers changing over to snow by Saturday night. Temperatures will fall behind the front tonight, and continue to drop through Saturday with high temperatures occuring very early.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper-level trough will swing through Saturday night, invigorating snow shower chances through pre-dawn Sunday. Westerly fetch and eroding moisture will limit snow production as the system begins to pull away. In general, less than an inch is expected across northern counties and into the mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere. Zonal flow behind the trough will bring in high pressure at the surface. This will suppress any lingering snow showers Sunday morning and should begin to erode cloud cover. After falling steadily through Sunday morning, temperatures should moderate Sunday to near normal values.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad southwest flow aloft will continue until midweek, when the pattern amplifies slightly and a shallow trough develops over the northeast U.S. One weak piece of energy in the midlevels may provide some light precipitation on Monday. Deeper moisture flow and an approaching shortwave will provide better chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Leaned heavily on Superblend guidance as models like the GFS and ECMWF are still struggling a bit with timing and strength details. A relatively quiet Thursday will be followed by a possible clipper on Friday. Above normal temperatures early in the week will be followed by normal or slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday in the developing trough. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through midnight, with daytime cumulus and nighttime mid/high clouds. Main issue until then will be wind, as gusts to between 20 and 30 knots out of the southwest will continue through the afternoon. Once gusts subside this evening, overnight low level wind shear is anticipated as winds aloft ramp up ahead of the approaching cold front. This boundary blows through between 06Z and 14Z from west to east. Went with prevailing MVFR conditions for now in showers, but a brief period of IFR is possible, and could be added once timing is firmed up. VCTS maintained for now, but again, prevailing TSRA for an hour or two is possible. Behind the front, winds will slowly shift to SW and then W with time, with continued gusts to 30 knots possible. MVFR ceilings and scattered showers will then linger into the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions may linger into Saturday evening behind the front in showers and low clouds. Occasional restrictions are again possible Monday through Wednesday in an unsettled pattern. && .CLIMATE...
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Record high temperatures for climate sites: Fri -------- PIT 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 70 (1961) MGW 75 (1975) DUJ 60 (1985) HLG 63 (2016) PHD 66 (1985)
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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