Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241803 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 203 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANOTHER SUNNY AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT. THE HIGH SLOWLY PULLS EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING. WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE MIXED OVERALL THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS MAY SET UP BY SUNRISE AS WELL ON WNW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON MONDAY...AS AN OPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST AND INITIATES THE DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...A DEEP AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER AND H850 TEMPS OF 11-12C JUSTIFY THE WARM NUMBERS. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE MUCH MORE MOISTURE/QPF THAN OTHER MODELS LIKE THE NAM OR ECMWF. GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN CURRENTLY IN PLACE...AND GENERALLY SLOW EROSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THINK THAT THE GFS IS TOO QUICK TO MOISTEN THE MID LEVELS. PREFER TO KEEP THE POP PROFILE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SOME POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE INITIALLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP TOWARDS THE NY/PA BORDER. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER WITH TALL BUT SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WHILE MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE EARLY WEEK...A MID-LEVEL LOW SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...HOWEVER AN UNFAVORABLE TIMING IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AS WELL AS AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING RETURNING. LAYER RH PROFILES DECREASE MARKEDLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUN TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EVEN POST- FRONTAL. FRIES
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM SHEARING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF IT. THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME AROUND SEEMS TO BE THAT AMPLE MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...WITH SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVEN IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM LOOKS NOW TO SHEAR OUT CONTINUOUSLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...SUCH THAT RIDGING AGAIN BECOMES THE DOMINANT FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS DRIER WEATHER WILL AGAIN MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA. FRIES && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO APPEAR NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL PICKING UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY MORNING. CL .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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