Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 221734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
134 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Cool and unsettled weather today with a crossing upper level
disturbance. Dry weather should return Sunday under high pressure.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Adjusted afternoon POPs based on a bit slower exit to the
northeast. Winds also brought down somewhat from previous
expectations. Remainder unchanged.
Lake enhanced bands of showers will continue to shift north and
east as the flow progresses through the afternoon. Cold advection
will continue through the morning, with a few snow showers mixed
in for the higher ridges and I-80 corridor into late morning.
As flow turns anticyclonic tonight showers will end, with warm
advection actually beginning after midnight as low pressure exits
toward New England. Winds will be gusty to over 40 MPH in the
ridges into this evening, then diminish overnight. Temperatures
will average 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday will begin dry as high pressure tracks well to our south.
Deamplifying flow aloft and gusty southwest winds will allow
clouds to decrease and push afternoon temperatures back up to
Clouds will begin to increase again late in the day ahead of a
quick-moving surface low/midlevel shortwave dropping across the
Great Lakes. The best chance for showers late Sunday and Sunday
night will lie north of Pittsburgh where the best low-level
convergence will be seen, with some isolated activity possible
along the ridges. The low will drag a front across Sunday night,
which will bring temperatures back to below normal. Monday will
feature lingering clouds in northwest flow, most numerous across
the north, where a few isolated showers may continue. Skies should
begin to clear Monday night as surface high pressure and upper
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Continued ridging aloft will maintain dry weather into Wednesday.A
digging trough will cross the Mississippi River and begin to
impact our region during the late week period, with our next
decent chance of rain. The models differ on the fate of this
trough at the end of next week, lending much uncertainty to
precipitation chances and amounts. Temperatures will be near or
just a bit below climatology through the period.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MVFR to low VFR conditions are expected to continue through much
of the afternoon with an upper low in close proximity and cool
northwest flow. Lake enhanced showers should continue to shift
east as winds gradually back more to the west. Did include tempo
deteriorated conditions in select ports where showers are
expected. A tight pressure gradient should result in W-NW winds
gusting to 25kt at times before diminishing after sunset.
Mainly VFR stratocu should persist much of the night with cool
W-NW flow off the Great Lakes, though building high pressure
should bring a general clearing trend by Sunday morning for most
.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night cold front, and with
subsequent upper troughing and northwest flow through Tuesday.
Restrictions are possible again with a Thursday cold front.
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