Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271702 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 102 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO UPDATES NEEDED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS RIGHT ON TARGET. DESPITE ALL THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE WARM MOIST LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS THUS FAR CAPPED OFF ANY ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BETTER BUILDUPS BY MID AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE AND WEDGE OF 70+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS A SLIGHT CAP IN THE MID LEVELS THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO ERODE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY AND WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED STORMS BUT BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY COLLAPSING STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THERMODYNAMICS DECREASE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH FINALLY ARRIVES. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT THESE WILL END QUICKLY. COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM STILL LOOKING WARM...HUMID AND ACTIVE. AT THIS POINT... MODEL DISCREPANCIES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION. BUT AT THIS POINT...WOULD THINK SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDS EXP THRU TNGT...EXCEPT FOR PORTS N OF I 80 WHERE MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS ARE EXPD THIS MRNG AS A CDFNT CROSSES. THE FNT WL MOVE S THRU THE AFTN WITH SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPG ESP FM PIT S. INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH AMT OF TSTM COVG IN QN. CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD DCR BY EVE AFT FROPA. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING PSBL SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SUN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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