Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241223 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 823 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 early in the week. Dry and warm weather is expected with mid week high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid-morning update features only minor enhancements to sky and temperature fields based on satellite and obs. The southeast CONUS low will turn the corner today afternoon and begin a northeasterly track. As it does, the increased moisture advecting from the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to bring rain chances to our southeastern periphery. Near term models do show rain as non-continuous in this area, as slightly drier mid- level air works its way in. With this in mind, will continue to stay just below categorical PoPs this afternoon and early evening. Elsewhere, will maintain only slight and low chance PoPs as drier low-levels will be re-enforced by downsloping easterly flow. Temperatures will be largely dependent on extent of cloud cover an rain through the afternoon. Seasonal highs are expected N-W of PIT where an increase in clouds should occur later in the day, with below average readings S-E where more predominant clouds cover/rain is expected. Stayed close to CONSShort, which seems to be handling these very well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Rain chances are expected to spread nwd east of the I 79 corridor through Tuesday as the low moves up the East Coast. Maintained likely to categorical numbers in the WV/MD ridges where the most favorable moisture and ascent is progged in proximity to the low. Rain chances should end Tuesday night as the low begins to pull away from the coast. Building ridging on Wednesday should result in dry and warm weather, with temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging is progged to shift east early in the period as a trough advances out of the Midwest, returning rain chances to the forecast. Gradually increasing heights and SW upper flow are expected through the weekend in response to a deepening wrn CONUS trough. Embedded shortwaves in the SW flow should result in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from late week through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to average 10-20 degrees above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for most of the TAF period. Upper level low pressure will track over the Deep South today. Easterly flow will continue to bring moisture along the ridges and areas mainly southeast of PIT. Most rain chances will remain east of a LBE- MGW line through tonight. MVFR ceilings may show up overnight at locations like LBE, DUJ, and FKL. Other terminals will see increasingly lower VFR ceilings. East winds will pick up to 10 to 20 knots by afternoon. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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