Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 252130 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 530 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance may provide a few showers late tonight. A warm and increasingly humid air mass arrives for tomorrow and remains through the weekend, with rain chances each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 530pm update...have pushed inclusion of pops later into the overnight hours as a lack of lift, and very dry air near the surface, is preventing the development of showers. Have updated overnight temperatures with the latest hires guidance. Previous discussion... A weak wave will slowly make its way across the area tonight and Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low overnight, owing to an overall lack of moisture and lift. Dewpoints will be on the increase tomorrow afternoon, which combining with slightly cooler temperatures aloft, will create a more favorably unstable profile. Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during this period. Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast. CL && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using the latest model blend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model differences. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible across southeast Ohio, but any restriction would be very brief. A slightly more organized threat of rain will occur later tonight and into Thursday morning as a weak disturbance moves across, but chances remain too low to include restrictions in TAFs. Towards the end of the TAF period on Thursday, a bit more numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in an increasingly unstable airmass. It is still too early to pin down location and timing, but restrictions will be more possible by then. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.