Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261436 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATE MRNG UPDATE FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS AND TO BUMP HIGH TEMPS UP GIVEN THE LACK OF CLD COVER BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE. SHRTWV RIDGE WL SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT NXT SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN SOME SCT TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. STORMS OVR WRN OH AND IN ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...TRACK OF WHICH MAY CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TNGT. RISK OF SVR WITH THAT...AND FOR THE RMNDR OF THE AREA APPEARS SMALL FOR NOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT IS OF SUNDAY AS DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE UPR OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND UPR WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE ARE HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ZANESVILLE TO MORGANTOWN LINE WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DRAWN MODERATE PROBABILITIES IN VCNTY OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDS EXPD TDA WITH A MIX OF DIURNAL CU AND AC. A WK SHRTWV APCHS THIS EVE...BUT WITH PCPN COVG IN QN ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS. AN MCS WL LIKELY AFFECT PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT INTO ERLY SUN MRNG. WITH TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES MAINTAINED A VCTS MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM WITH MVFR CONDS. OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING TSTM RSTRNS SUN...WITH LINGERING RSTRNS INTO MON AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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