Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061238 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 738 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE. OVERALL PROGNOSIS REMAINS ON TRACK. WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION UNDER AN ADVANCING...DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... THAT TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LACKING...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ANY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. RIDGING BETWEEN UPR MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT A DRY SUNDAY WITH FURTHER...ALBEIT MINOR... MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...HENCE AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR THE UPPER OHIO ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...IF NOT A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID IN THE HEART OF THE WARMER AIR. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BEFORE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS POINT...TIMING OF ALL OF THIS AND THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT...SO A MODEL BLEND WILL BE PRUDENT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MONDAY WHICH WILL MAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DIFFICULT IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SNOW THEN RAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. NEVERTHELESS...UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVR THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. SUB-AVG TEMPS AND PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES MAY BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD...WITH FOCUS TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES AS THE WORK WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE. THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPD THRU SUN...THOUGH A WEAK GT LKS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING OCNL MID LVL CLOUDS TODAY. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD WITH A SUN NGT/MON COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG THRU MID WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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