Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 041800 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS HERE. THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD. DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND ERODE THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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