Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260559 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 159 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WILL BE KEEPING CLOSE WATCH ON A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED WITH THE WAVE... KEEPING THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE LAKES. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE OPS MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL...WHICH IS WHY THE LATEST HIRES DATA IS SHOWING A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE HIRES DATA HERE AS THEY HAVE PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. HAVE COMPOSED OVERNIGHT POPS IN LINE WITH THE HIRES DATA AND KEPT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AS WE LIE IN THE HEART OF THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. THE THUNDER MENTION...WAS KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE...GIVEN THE PROJECTED COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT QUESTIONABLE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MORE RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD FURTHER LIMIT ALREADY MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE ONE ASPECT THAT IS WORKING IN FAVOR OF SUSTAINING ANY DEVELOPMENT IS THE STRONG SHEAR PROGNOSIS. IF STORMS CAN GET ORGANIZED...THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES WOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHOWERS/STORMS ARE PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...COOL ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR- AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. VAST DIFFERENCE IN OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE THURSDAY FORECAST...WITH TODAY`S FRONT RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL RELY MORE ON THE SUPERBLEND ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCORPORATE ENSEMBLE DATA.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INCRS PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE UPR OH REGION ONCE AGAIN. ACTUAL TRACK WL REMAIN QNABLE FOR A WHILE...SO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS EXCLUSIVELY UTILIZED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE RGN TUE...WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND MVFR POTENTIAL WITH ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL WITH FROPA WITH THE BEST CHCS TUE AFTN S OF PIT...WHERE A VCTS WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAF. A DEVELOPING LOW LVL JET SHOULD ALSO BRING A LLWS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT N. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL TUE EVE S OF PIT AS THE FRONT EXITS. RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AGAIN THU/FRI WITH LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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