Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170811 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 411 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A break today before showers and storms return Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The higher terrain will be the focus of any additional rainfall that occurs today, as southeasterly flow near the surface returns, which will promote moisture convergence along the ridges. Conditions will remain warm and steamy, with above normal temperatures once again.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect dry conditions overnight, as weak ridging will occur ahead of the deepening trough swinging toward the Western Great Lakes. Models continue to slow the eastward progression of the surface front and associated upper level energy on Sunday. In accordance, have adjusted PoPs Sunday to portray a slower onset of showers and storms. With the front approaching during peak heating, and models indicating favorable instability and directional wind shear, SPC slight risk of severe weather appears on track. With another half inch or greater of widespread rainfall expected along the front, additional flooding could be possible. Especially in locations that have experienced flooding this week. Still seeing some timing issues with model depiction of eastward speed of front and the large scale ascent which will drive the boundary. On Sunday night, the initial push in the upper levels spins northward over the Great Lakes, which causes the boundary to get hung up over Central Ohio. At the same time, a southern stream wave develops over the Tennessee Valley and moves northward in the southwest flow aloft. This southern wave will pump more moisture northward and continue to inhibit the eastward progression of the front. These factors have required likely to categorical PoPs be extended through all of Sunday night and into Monday morning. This will also increase the risk for flooding. Front finally gets moving Monday morning as the main trough digs into the Upper Midwest. This will allow for a shift of the activity toward the east Monday. Again, still seeing different model solutions on the timing and speed of the boundary on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The unsettled pattern will persist through next week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms just about every day. Temperatures should be slightly cooler than they have been, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows around 60. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will be marred by localized fog in river valleys and where the most rain fell in the past day or two. This will bring localized IFR conditions at a few airports, however after sunrise and through the day on Saturday, all sites should go VFR with light winds. Fries .Outlook... Restrictions should increase late Sunday into Monday with abundant convective activity, heavy rainfall, and deeper clouds. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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