Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011025 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 525 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cold advection and a crossing upper trough extending from a closed upper low in Canada should maintain cloudy skies across the region today. Maintained slight to low chances for snow showers N of I 80 where better upper support is progged, and also in the ridges with less than optimal westerly upslope flow. The boundary layer flow is expected to stay WSW over Lake Erie preventing any lake enhancement. Outside of this area, included some sprinkles and flurries as radar returns and surface obs show very light precip occuring across OH as the upper trough approaches. Temperatures should remain nearly steady with the clouds and cold advection. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak, broad upper troughing is expected to persist Friday as the closed low drifts east. This should continue to maintain cloud cover with low to slight chance POPs for snow showers N of I 80 and in the ridges. The boundary layer flow is progged to become more westerly Friday afternoon, which could result in a few more lake enhanced snow showers N of I 80, though a marginal lake surface to 850mb temperature difference and capping inversion around 5,000 ft should preclude any significant snow. The low is progged to exit the region early Saturday followed by building ridging. Warm advection and a shortwave crossing the lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region should result in the chance for snow and possibly some rain Sunday. Near seasonal temperatures are expected through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper trough is progged to advance from the Western CONUS, reaching the Eastern CONUS by mid to late week. A shortwave in SW flow ahead of the main trough should return precip chances Tuesday, with precip chances increasing again by mid to late week as the main trough reaches the area. Above seasonal average temperatures through Wednesday, though much colder temperatures are possible by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front is now east of the ridges with west winds gusty at times to 25 KTs into the afternoon in tight pressure gradient under low pressure across the Great Lakes. Brief window of VFR at most ports until 08-09Z when MVFR CIGs in cold advection will return and remain into mid afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are possible in showers through the weekend especially N of I 70 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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