Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210639 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 239 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH THIS MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH BULK OF RADAR ECHOES MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PA VIRGA. LIKELY POPS CONTINUED FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING AS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS REGION INTO LATE AFTERNOON HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES EAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH OF I-80 AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S CLOSE TO MODEL MOS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL WOBBLE SOUTH FRIDAY...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND EXITS THE RIDGES BY EVENING. A GOOD COLD PUNCH BEHIND FRONT WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S NORTH AND RIDGES WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO BE BORDERLINE FOR FROST AND ADDED PATCHY FROST EXCEPT FOR THE ZANESVILLE AREA FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO DEFINE. SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE HOLIDAY FORECAST AS THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING AND PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN IN QUESTION. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THEREAFTER WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVES. THIS WILL CONTINUE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. USED WPC BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE WITH DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO HELP SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR MOST PORTS. VFR STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARM FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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