Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 242142
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
442 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017
A cold front tonight will bring rain and gusty wind. Temperature
behind the front will drop back to the averages by Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A late afternoon update was issued to adjust sky cover upward
given the cirrostratus flowing over the region.
The cold front will advance over East Central Ohio around midnight.
accompanied by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Timing
of the frontal passage will not be conducive to prolonged
severe threat, although modest buoyancy and deep shear along the
boundary could support strong to isolated severe elements into
eastern Ohio. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe
weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal risk east
towards Pittsburgh. Strong and gusty winds are likely as the
front passes and again behind as the pressure gradient tightens
and cold advection begins.
A lull in precipitation is expected behind the front Saturday
evening. Eventually, any remaining moisture will be squeezed out
in the form of scattered rain showers changing over to snow by
Saturday night. Temperatures will fall behind the front tonight,
and continue to drop through Saturday with high temperatures
occuring very early.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough will swing through Saturday night,
invigorating snow shower chances through pre-dawn Sunday.
Westerly fetch and eroding moisture will limit snow production
as the system begins to pull away. In general, less than an inch
is expected across northern counties and into the mountains.
Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere.
Zonal flow behind the trough will bring in high pressure at the
surface. This will suppress any lingering snow showers Sunday
morning and should begin to erode cloud cover. After falling
steadily through Sunday morning, temperatures should moderate
Sunday to near normal values.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad southwest flow aloft will continue until midweek, when the
pattern amplifies slightly and a shallow trough develops over
the northeast U.S. One weak piece of energy in the midlevels may
provide some light precipitation on Monday. Deeper moisture flow
and an approaching shortwave will provide better chances on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Leaned heavily on Superblend guidance as
models like the GFS and ECMWF are still struggling a bit with
timing and strength details. A relatively quiet Thursday will be
followed by a possible clipper on Friday. Above normal
temperatures early in the week will be followed by normal or
slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday in
the developing trough.
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions can be expected through midnight, but deterioration
will occur thereafter as a cold front spawns restrictions with
showers and some thunderstorms.
Sustained sfc wind, with evening gusts of 25 to 30 kt, is not
expected to ease much after dark in the tightening pressure
gradient, although gusts should, as mixing decreases. Have thus
foregone the llws mention although wind above the boundary
layer will be strengthening.
Wind will veer to the w in the wake of the front. Sfc gusts of
25 to 30 will again be possible as MVFR stratocu and sct showers
linger into the aftn.
Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled
weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week.
Record high temperatures for climate sites:
PIT 70 (1875,1906)
ZZV 70 (1961)
MGW 75 (1975)
DUJ 60 (1985)
HLG 63 (2016)
PHD 66 (1985)