Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261758 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm, dry weather will be interrupted by showers and storms with a Thursday cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Dry conditions and limited cloud coverage will prevail the remainder of the afternoon and overnight as high pressure transitions over the area. Temperatures will remain mild overnight, with lows temperatures around 15 degrees above seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front associated with an occluding system will cross the CWA during the late afternoon/early evening. Latest model runs have followed suit with previous runs progging a slightly faster solution. The pre-frontal environment during the afternoon will feature plenty of shear but instability looks to be marginal as moisture advection will be weaker this far north as the surface low occludes and daytime max temperatures are forecast to be slightly cooler than previous advertised which will make warmer air aloft in the lower levels difficult to overcome. Thus, SPCs continued marginal risk seems appropriate. Without any other triggers...activity may be limited to along the frontal boundary as it crosses. In any case, there would still be potential for damaging winds and/or hail in with any storms that develop strong updrafts given the wind fields. Dry weather returns behind the front Thursday night and Friday as ridging builds aloft. Above normal temperatures will continue.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An active pattern is figured for the weekend into early next week. A few shortwaves will cross in continued moist southwest flow along the front of a broad trough, leading to rain chances for Saturday and Sunday. Timing remains tricky, but Saturday night currently looks to be the period with the lowest coverage in the warm sector. Temperatures remain above normal. The trough lifts out as a closed upper low into the Great Lakes by Monday, pushing a fairly strong boundary across us. Given system strength, the amount of moisture, and a possibly negative tilt to the upper trough, strong storms appear possible. Behind this system, quieter weather and seasonable temperatures are expected into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will maintain general VFR until a weak front spawns some showers and storms on Thursday. .Outlook... Periodic restrictions are possible this weekend a front stalls across the region, then returns northward as a warm front. Restrictions are likely Sunday night and Monday with cold-front-associated showers and storms.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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