Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290547 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 147 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Area of showers continues to drift eastward with exiting surface low and its associated upper level wave. Using a blend of hires guidance, have updated pops and temperatures. Clouds will be tricky overnight as a brief shot of dense fog has turned into a layer of stratus. Would expect this to spread across most of the area by dawn. Expect scattered showers and storms to pop up again later today as the atmosphere will remain unstable and another wave crosses as evening approaches. With some minor ridging aloft this morning, the activity should hold off until the afternoon. Expect warmer temperatures today, with humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Very little change to the overall pattern, with zonal flow aloft and shortwaves riding eastward in the flow. The risk for showers and storms will continue through the entire weekend, with best timing linked to the passage of aforementioned waves. Continued humid with near seasonal daytime temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Appears to be enough low level moisture for low chance pops in the ridges Monday, otherwise a weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal boundary may get close enough for chance POPs on Thursday. A modified Superblend was used for the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers should taper off with exiting shortwave support tonight, though widespread MVFR and eventual IFR fog and stratus is expected with low level moisture in place through early Friday. A return to VFR is expected by Friday afternoon as the fog mixes out and CU develops, but broad upper troughing should maintain shower and thunderstorm chances. Included a VCSH mention in the TAFS for now. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm restriction potential through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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