Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020108 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 908 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ERADICATED FROM OUR ENVIRONS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WAXED AND WANED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CLING TO LIFE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WESTWARD TRUDGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOSEYED ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA/OHIO BORDER AT THIS HOUR. AS THE SUN HAS ALREADY BID US ADIEU THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DWINDLE FROM ITS ALREADY PALTRY LEVELS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE AT BEST ISOLATED. POPS WERE SUMMARILY WOUND DOWN ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS A RESULT. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS TOWARD MORNING OVER THE RIDGE AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT SEEM TO BE POISED TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS. SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND DUJ APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SITE LEFT THAT COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LATEST TAF ISSUANCE IN LATE NIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER VISIBILITY REDUCTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES TO 2-3 MILES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VISIBILITIES...AND NOT BOTTOM OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. AS FOR SATURDAY...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP VCTS MENTION IN TAFS...BUT REPLACED IT WITH VCSH MENTION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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