Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 251610
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1210 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will pass through the area this evening
bringing the chance for scattered storms. A dry mid week before
the weather pattern gets active Friday and Saturday. Above normal
temperatures are forecast all week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As we remain in the warm sector strong daytime heating has allowed
the mercury to climb along with the heat index. As of 12pm
Zanesville and Latrobe already has a 100F+ heat index. Expect the
number of triple digit reports to increase as we see several more
hours of sunshine and soundings do not show a lot of dry air
mixing to the surface. Recent runs of the RAP model portrayed
dewpoints getting into the lower 60s. Upstream there are no
indications of that given parcel trajectories from that airmass 24
hours ago.

Convective complex over western NY and Lake Erie will be the
focus for storms this afternoon. Experimental HRRR did a great job
on timing and coverage yesterday, so opted to roll with that again
today for Pop forecast. This means any severe threat will be
focused in our eastern zones /Venango south to Fayette/. The line
will intensify as it reaches northwestern PA then traverses
through the central part of the state during the early and mid
afternoon hours. Meanwhile, daytime heating will ignite scattered
thunderstorms elsewhere that will be very tall as SBCAPES are
already over 4000 jkg-1 with no CINH. After looking at forecast
soundings wet microbursts and brief downpours are the primary
threats. DCAPES remain above 1000jkg-1 supporting strong
downdrafts. Again, do not expect widespread severe weather, but
isolated down trees are possible much like Sunday until the
baroclinic zone crosses tonight.

Weather will quiet down this evening as the cold front /in name
only/ passes. There are still questions how far south the
boundary gets. Recent runs from the NCEP suite have trended
farther north keeping it just south of our forecast area in
central WV. Thus, there could be a chance of showers and storms
tomorrow south of the Mason / Dixon line.

H8 temps do not drop more than 1-2C, so if you are looking for a
reprieve to this heat, it is not in the cards. Dewpoints will be
lower, however heat index values around 90F will be common
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Zonal flow aloft will keep the short term almost entirely dry. H8
temperatures around 18C will keep the area hot. No significant
changes to the short term given the above two sentences. The
timing of the next short wave could bring measurable precipitation
to eastern Ohio Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
- Continued above normal temperatures
- Best shot at rain arrives Friday
- Chance of showers and storms has been extended into Saturday

Active weather to start with a shortwave trough traversing the
region. If timing gets pushed back, would not be surprised if
severe weather becomes a possibility given its passage during the
prime heating hours. With moisture surging out ahead, an
extensive amount of clouds are forecast. Slightly more agreement
amongst the ensembles and Superblend, opted to increase pops into
the likely range Friday for much of the region. The mid level
disturbance continues to move slowly east allowing the chance for
showers and storms into Saturday as it lifts northeast through the
Great Lakes.

H5 heights and high pressure build into the region permitting dry
weather Sunday and Monday, but again no signs of any cool downs.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
General VFR expected today in the warm, moist airmass ahead of an
approaching front. A few showers have popped up across the region
this morning, but they have missed the terminals to this point.
Expect coverage to increase as we become more unstable this
afternoon but with no definite line of showers and storms
developing, have opted to carry VCTS in the TAFs. Restrictions
will be limited to any terminal that experiences a thunderstorm.

The rather diffuse front will slowly sag across the region through
this evening, with a wind shift from southwest to west.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lingering low level moisture tonight may promote restrictions in
fog. But after Tuesday morning, the next chance for restrictions
will be with a late week front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today
DuBois 90 set in 1989
New Philadelphia 94 set in 1989
Wheeling 95 set in 2005
Zanesville 95 set in 2005

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening FOR OHZ039-048-049-
     057>059-068-069.
PA...None.
WV...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening FOR WVZ003-004-012.

&&

$$
synopsis...98
near term...98
short term...98
long term...98
aviation...34
climate...98



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