Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 201029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL WARMING AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL
PASSAGE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SGFNT CHGS FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...THE ERN CONUS
RMNS UNDR THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UNDR TROF AND ALL MDLS INDICATE
ANOTHER IS SERIES OF WEAK SHRTWVS APCHG LTR TDA. CLDINESS...LACK
OF APPRECIABLE FORCING...AND GENL WEAKNESS OF THE DYNAMICS LK TO
LIMIT POTENTIAL SHWR COVERAGE. WL THUS MAINTAIN AN ISOLD TO SCT
SHWR OR TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPS WL RMN A FEW DEGREES UNDR THE MID SUMMER AVGS WITH THIS FLOW
PTN AND CLD COVER.  NR TERM TEMP FORECAST IS GENLY OF PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY MONDAY...EXPANSION OF THE WRN STATES RIDGE TWD THE GREAT LAKES
LKS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPRESS DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION OVR
ALL BUT THE OROGRAPHICAL SPPRT AREAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS THUS NEEDED FOR THOSE PDS...HIGHLIGHT OF WHICH
WL BE MORE SEASONAL WARMTH AND HUMIDITY..

BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO BGN DIGGING ANOTHER
ERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF...AMPLITUDE OF WHICH RMNS IN DISPUTE AMONG
MDLS. THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED FOR WED PASSAGE
ACRS THE UPR OHIO. POPS HAVE THUS BEEN INCRSD CLOSER TO LIKELY
NMBRS GIVEN MDL CONSISTENCY OVR THE PAST CPL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED MAINLY USING THE GFS FOR
POPS FOR PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK CDFNT...WITH TEMPERING THEREAFTER
AS CONFIDENCE IN UPR TROF MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING FRONTAL
PLACEMENT ARE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL SHRTWV ENERGY RELOADS THE
ATMOSPHERE NXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD TO CONT THIS MRNG IN BR AND STRATOCU MAINLY
FM ZZV TO PIT NWD WITH AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A CROSSING
SHRTWV WL ALSO BRING A FEW SHWRS TO SOME PORTS THIS MRNG. EXP A
RTN TO VFR CONDS THRU THE MRNG THRUT THE AREA AS MXG BEGINS...WITH
CONTD SC/CU CIGS. ANOTHER ADVNG WK SHRTWV WL BRING LOW CHCS FOR
SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS LTR TDA...HOWEVER COVG IS EXPD TO BE TOO LMTD
FOR TAF MENTION ATTM. CLDS SCT LT TNGT WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL IN BR.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS RTNS WITH A LT WED/THU CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




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