Area Forecast Discussion
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101
FXUS61 KPBZ 140728
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
328 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Although most locations will remain dry, a series of disturbances
is forecast to cross the region and cause some local showers
and storms through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Changes for the morning update included a fog intensity and
coverage reduction as mid and upper clouds are on the increase
with the advance of a shortwave in wsw flow aloft.

That shortwave may support some weak convection in vicinity of
MGW and LBE and points east as per low level moisture convergence
into the ridges and a weak inverted surface trough. Have
structured POPs for scattered light convection using the latest
HRRR and incoming NAM depictions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dynamics associated with a shortwave digging eastward across the
Great Lakes on Tuesday may clip the I 80 corridor as per the
latest NAM and GFS depictions. Have thus restructured some
minimal POPs over northern, and ridge zones for that scenario as
per favorable afternoon timing.

Rising heights via overall shortwave ridging support a warmer
Wednesday forecast, but an embedded impulse may mar a dry
forecast as it traverses the weak boundary anticipated over
zones south of I 70. Isolated/slight POPs were maintained
overnight as that boundary will be surging northward as a warm
front in response to deepening low pressure over the Upper MS
Valley.

That low is projected to stay well north, but the associated
frontal system is likely to spawn showers and storms on
Thursday.

Overall low amplitude flow will maintain seasonable temperature
for the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Periodic rain chances are projected for the long term period as
per a series of crossing shortwave troughs. Temperature under
this pattern will remain near the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as sfc
high pressure slides E, though early morning MVFR/lcl IFR
valley fog is expected to affect a few ports. A weak shortwave
tracking NE from the TN valley should bring an increase in
clouds Mon, along with shower chances toward MGW.

.OUTLOOK...
Localized erly mrng fog psbl thru the week. Widespread
restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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