Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 140405
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1205 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather Saturday. A
Sunday cold front will then bring fall like weather Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Dry weather is expected under shortwave ridging. A moist
boundary layer in SE upslope flow should maintain stratus across
the higher terrain of PA and MD. The stratus should dissipate in
the morning as the flow veers to the S. An overnight/early
morning fog mention was confined to areas where wind is
expected to die completely. Expect temperature readings 10 to
15 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Few changes were needed for the short either as a cold front is
progged to traverse the area on Sunday afternoon/evening. There
remains timing differences amongst operational models and
ensembles. Past experiences say slower solutions will verify
which sides more with the NAM forecast, but we will see.

Not to concerned with a severe or a high water threat. Despite
PWATS climbing in excess of 1.70", forward motion will yield
brief downpours but no flooding concerns. As for severe, shear
is modest however instability is weak along with lapse rates,
so just predicting general thunder.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The post-frontal cool down is expected to be brief as the
associated Eastern CONUS trough is forecast to rapidly fill.
Zonal flow/flat ridging will thus moderate temperature back
toward, and then above the averages for the latter half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Outside of some persistent stratus because of moist upslope near
DUJ and some peri-dawn fog at ZZV, general VFR is expected
for the TAF period as weakening boundary layer downslope continues
before veering toward the south on Saturday.

.Outlook...
The next chance for widespread restrictions is expected with a
Sunday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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