Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS THE FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT HAS LARGELY BEEN USED UP
BY CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THE COLD POOL FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS COVERED MUCH OF THE REAL ESTATE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CWA...BUT THESE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE NET RESULT FOR THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SEEMS TO BE
ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. THESE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TO A LARGE DEGREE. SECONDARILY...DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT MANAGED TO
TREND DOWNWARD BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH AT ALL...THIS WILL ALSO WORK
TO INHIBIT TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT.

SKIES SHOULD BREAK UP ON MONDAY AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SEEM LIKELY TO HANG AROUND THE
RIDGES...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL LEAVE A LOCALIZED MAXIMUM OF
INSTABILITY THERE BY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE THE RESULT DURING THE PRIME HEATING HOURS. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER WARM...BUT SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID...DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT. AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AS RISING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR 90 BOTH DAYS...WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MID 90S ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEEK WITH DRIER
AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE RIDGES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WENT WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR FROPA. LESS
HUMID WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ALONG THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS BY PRE-DAWN
WHILE FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THESE SITES. CATEGORIES WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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