Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS61 KPBZ 181131
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
731 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Warm and windy conditions today will give way to increasing rain
chances tonight as a cold front moves over the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The dawn update included some adjustment to precip probability
timing based on the latest high res/consensus short timing. In
addition, the latest model soundings indicate deep enough, and
early enough mixing to up wind gusts a bit under todays crossing
low level jet on the flank of Great Lakes low pressure.
Otherwise, warm weather will continue through Wednesday despite
the encroachment of a cold front. Insolation and warm advection
will support temperature about about 20 degrees above average.
The front will bring showers to much of the region tonight and
Wednesday, as it shifts southeast and stalls near/just south of
the I 70 corridor. With weak cold advection progged in the wake of
the boundary, warm temperature was forecasted with readings 10 to
15 degrees above the average anticipated.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wave of low pressure is still progged to develop on the front
and further increase shower chances Thursday into Friday as a
mid/upper trough over the midwest amplifies. Models coming into
better agreement on timing and strength of developing surface low
pressure and POPs were increased for the period.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Much cooler temperatures are expected over the region through the
weekend, as upper level troughing develops over the Eastern CONUS.
Scattered showers will remain in the forecast into Sunday as cold
advection continues and shortwaves in northwest flow traverse the
area. Dry, but seasonably cool conditions are anticipated as high
pressure builds for the start of the new work week. Slightly
modified Superblend guidance was used for the extended period.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although winds
will be a factor. Low level wind shear will give way to gusts
around 27 kts as mixing improves through the day.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected during the latter half of the
week as a series of troughs cross the region.
The record high temperatures for today...
PIT...83 set in 1938
MGW...83 set in 1963
ZZV...81 set in 1964
PHD...83 set in 1968
HLG...79 set in 1950
DUJ...79 set in 1963