Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240935
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
435 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEPENING LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL TRACK FM THE OH
VLY INTO THE GT LKS RGN TDA INTO TNGT. PERIODIC SHWRS WL CONT TDA
INTO TNGT AS MSTR STREAMS IN FM THE GULF IN SW FLOW AHD OF THE
ADVNG SYSTEM...AND AS FROPA OCCURS. AS COLD ADVCTN SETS UP A FEW
SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL OVRNGT. PROGRESSION AND A LACK OF SUSTAINED
CNVRGNC SHOULD LMT BASIN AVG RAIN TOTALS TO ARND A HALF INCH FOR
THE PD.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF...AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE CDFNT IS EXPD WED EVE INTO ERLY THU. IN ADDN...ELEVATED
INSTBY COULD RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS ALG THE CDFNT LT TDA AND THIS
EVE...SOME OF WHICH COULD MIX DOWN DAMAGING WNDS. THESE DAMAGING
WND GUSTS COULD BE HANDLED BY CNVCTV WRNGS IF THIS POTENTIAL
MATERIALIZES. UNTIL THEN...STRONG WARM ADVCTN WL CAP THE SFC
TDA...INHIBITING MIXING/GUSTS.

ISSUED A WND ADVY FOR GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PRES GRADIENT WNDS LT TDA INTO ERLY THU. THE ADVY MAY BE
AUGMENTED BY STORM PREDICTION CENTER PARTICIPATION IN A SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MNTND ABV.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG ARND 20 TO 25 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTD GUSTY WNDS ARE EXPD INTO ERLY THU ESP ESP ACRS WRN PA AND IN
THE RIDGES. WKNG PRES GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DCRG WND GUSTS
THRU THE DAY. SNW SHWR CHCS ARE EXPD THU MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN WITH
AN ADVNG UPR TROF...THOUGH LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND MARGINAL TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LTL IF ANY ACCUMS MAINLY N OF I 80 AND IN THE
RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BRING DRY WEA LTR THU INTO
FRI NGT. ANOTHER ADVNG GT LKS SHRTWV WL RTN RAIN SHWR CHCS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
REINFORCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR
CONSENSUS IN HANDLING DETAILS...MAINLY WITH PLACEMENT RATHER THAN
TIME. A MORE BROADBRUSH WAS CONTINUED GIVE NT HIGH UNCERTAINTY BUT
IN GENERAL..FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY / TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND A 35-40KT DIFFERENCE IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     WVZ021>023-041.

&&

$$





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