Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.