Area Forecast Discussion
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714
FXUS61 KPBZ 030838
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
338 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly cloudy with seasonably cold temperatures through Sunday.
The next widespread chance for rain will be on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Winds have been slow to shift to the northwest this morning, with
little if any snow showers developing off Lake Erie into northwest
PA. Have lowered POPs and kept only a light accumulation today as
models still show flow will try to shift for a time late this
morning. Otherwise seasonably cold through tonight as weak high
pressure slides east across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Split mid level flow continues to result in a difficult
precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon and night. Have
continued with chance pops everywhere, with a rain snow mix
possible most areas. Again only light accumulation possible
generally north of State route 422 in PA. Precipitation will
shift east by Monday as shortwave exits east. Quiet weather will
be short lived however as low pressure will be quickly moving
northeast toward the region with mainly rain arriving Monday night
and continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Timing of a strong cold front continues to be uncertain in the
models, with the GFS still faster than the ECMWF. Have again used
the model blend with a nod toward WPC extended progs. This will
push the cold front across the region by Thursday, with much
colder air and scattered snow showers to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR cigs expected at all ports except ZZV through most of the
period. Cig will begin to slowly lift from southwest to northeast
during the afternoon, but it will take much of the day to clear
the MVFR cigs south of FKL and DUJ. FKL and DUJ will remain MVFR
for entire forecast period. Expect to see occasional gusts of 15
to 20kts, particularly as the afternoon approaches, and at FKL
and DUJ. For current forecast, left out mention of precipitation
as anything will be very light.

.OUTLOOK...
Ceiling restrictions are possible across northern ports through
Saturday night in cold W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late
Sunday/Monday, and again Tuesday with low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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