Area Forecast Discussion
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740
FXUS61 KPBZ 031943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH
OVERNIGHT AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AVERAGE 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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