Area Forecast Discussion
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448
FXUS61 KPBZ 011727
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1227 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds
and near seasonal temperatures across the area through the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With 12:30pm update, made minimal changes to hourly temperatures
as well as some minor changes to winds, with rest of forecast in
good shape.

Cold advection and a crossing upper trough extending from a closed
upper low in Canada should maintain cloudy skies across the
region today. Maintained slight to low chances for snow showers N
of I 80 where better upper support is progged, and also in the
ridges with less than optimal westerly upslope flow. The boundary
layer flow is expected to stay WSW over Lake Erie preventing any
lake enhancement. Outside of this area, included some sprinkles
and flurries as radar returns and surface obs show very light
precip occuring across OH as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures should remain nearly steady with the clouds and cold
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak, broad upper troughing is expected to persist Friday as the
closed low drifts east. This should continue to maintain cloud
cover with low to slight chance POPs for snow showers N of I 80
and in the ridges. The boundary layer flow is progged to become
more westerly Friday afternoon, which could result in a few more
lake enhanced snow showers N of I 80, though a marginal lake surface
to 850mb temperature difference and capping inversion around 5,000
ft should preclude any significant snow.

The low is progged to exit the region early Saturday followed by
building ridging. Warm advection and a shortwave crossing the
lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region should result in
the chance for snow and possibly some rain Sunday. Near seasonal
temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper trough is progged to advance from the Western CONUS,
reaching the Eastern CONUS by mid to late week. A shortwave in SW
flow ahead of the main trough should return precip chances
Tuesday, with precip chances increasing again by mid to late week
as the main trough reaches the area. Above seasonal average
temperatures through Wednesday, though much colder temperatures
are possible by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
West winds will be gusty at times to 25 KTs into the afternoon in
tight pressure gradient under low pressure across the Great
Lakes. MVFR CIGs will remain into mid afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
Brief restrictions are possible in showers through the weekend
especially N of I 70 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW
flow.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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