Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 271003
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
603 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes were needed for the dawn update.

Eastern CONUS ridging is expected to continue today. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached, though the proximity of the
ridge and lack of significant instability should limit this to
isolated coverage. Temperatures are expected to remain 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any isolated showers/storms should quickly dissipate this evening
as stabilization occurs. The eastern CONUS ridge is expected
persist through Saturday, though moisture and instability on the
nw periphery of the ridge should result in afternoon/evening
shower and thunderstorm chances.

A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region
Sunday as the ridge shifts east. Shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected to continue until the trough crosses sometime
Monday. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging is progged to build across the upper Ohio valley region
through midweek with mainly dry weather expected. Shower and
thunderstorm chances should return by late week with the approach
of a midwestern trough. Temperatures should continue to average
above seasonal levels through the period. Used adjusted Superblend
guidance to account for uncertainty and increasing operational
model differences by late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist today, but an isolated shower or
storm is possible this afternoon with a weak crossing disturbance.
Confidence in coverage and placement is not sufficient for TAF
inclusion.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15/07


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