Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 250500 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER
AND DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD
COVER AND UPDATED TEMPS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. TUESDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RISE.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.

FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE SOUTHERN HALF ON
WEDNESDAY...WAITING ON A PUSH FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDE SCHC/CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH WILL END AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE IN BY THURSDAY MORNING. COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME...MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
CREATE A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THE BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT CU DYING OFF WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LARGER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT SE WINDS. ONLY A PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED AT
KZZV. VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS WED...HOWEVER AS OF NOW THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WHEELING ASOS IS OUT OF SERVICE WHICH HAS AN EFFECT ON THE DAILY
CLIMATE.  NO ETA ON WHEN IT WILL RETURN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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