Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 192348
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
648 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain with a warm front north of Pittsburgh should end this
evening. Dry and warm weather is expected under a high pressure
ridge Tuesday. Rain chances return with a Wednesday cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Rain along a nwd tracking warm front N of PIT should gradually
taper off through the evening as the front completes its
passage. Elsewhere, shortwave ridging S of the front should
result in dry weather overnight. Lows tonight are expected to be
30 to 35 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Record breaking highs forecast for Tuesday. With the warm front
pushing well north of the area Tuesday morning and the
strengthening upper-level ridge nudging in from the south, dry
weather will be maintained. Cloudy morning sky conditions will
give way to gradual clearing through the day as the south-
southwesterly flow fully mixes down the dry air aloft. High low
temperatures, increasing insolation, strong warm advection, and
building heights should all mean efficient warming is expected.
High temperatures were kept on the high side of guidance, but a
degree or two below the high MEX/MAV numbers as recent moist
conditions will be a minor limiting factor. Regardless, highs
are forecast to break records for Feb 20th. A climate section
has been inserted below.

The aforementioned ridge will keep the forecast area dry through
at least Wednesday morning. Finally, the upper-level flow will
steer the central U.S. low northeastward through Ontario,
flopping the cold front over our area west to east. Some timing
differences exist, but highest rain chances look to be during
the day Wednesday. Current timing has this sharp boundary
creating non-diurnal temperature curve for some, especially
further north and east. Locations south and east of Pittsburgh
should see one more strong warming day before the temperatures
drop. We could make a run at a few record highs, but this will
be highly dependent on timing of the front. With the upper-level
support shunting northeast following the track of the low, only
modest lift associated with the surface front is expected.
Therefore, potential for high rainfall amounts with this round
will be limited. In total, another quarter to half an inch can
be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday`s cold front opens the door to a stream of Gulf moisture
that will bring multiple rounds of showers to the area. Several
shortwaves will pass through the mean flow and could result in
additional hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Model
differences certainly do exist during this time, but rain chances
were kept in the likely range for much of the weekend. A mention of
potential water issues has been inserted into the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Most of the rain has lifted north of the Pittsburgh forecast
area as a warm front completes its passage. Some LIFR
restrictions continue at FKL and DUJ, but some improvement to at
least MVFR is foreseen by late evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will rule south of I-80. Continuing mixing of the low
levels should preclude fog development, but these same winds,
courtesy of a low level jet, will continue low level wind shear
concerns into tomorrow morning.

After sunrise, VFR conditions will continue area-wide. Daytime
heating will allow LLWS concerns to abate, but the mixing will
create wind gusts of up to 25 knots out of the southwest through
the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs are forecast Tuesday and possible Wednesday

Location            Feb20 Record      Feb21 Record
Pittsburgh            68 (1891)         73 (1997)
Zanesville            71 (1939)         72 (1997)
Morgantown            70 (1994)         75 (1874)
DuBois                61 (2016)         60 (1983)
Wheeling              68 (1930/2016)    68 (1930)
New Philadelphia      69 (1994)         66 (2017)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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