Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262159
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...CLIPPING AT
LEAST OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE
TIED TO THE NOSE OF AN MID LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE...WHICH
SUPPORTS PLENTY OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT SOME CAPPING EXISTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION AND A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT CONTS TO BE SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE UPR
OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND UPR
WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR
DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL
THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED
OVR...AND IN VCNTY OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BLANKETED THAT AREA WITH
A MODERATE SEVERE RISK.

PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT
AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH
REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH A MIX OF DIURNAL CU AND
SC...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LWR TO MVFR FOR FKL AND DUJ
OVRNGT. A WK SHRTWV APCHS THIS EVE...BUT WITH PCPN COVG IN QN ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS. AN MCS WL LIKELY AFFECT ZZV AND MGW LT
TNGT INTO ERLY SUN MRNG...AND MAINTAINED SHWRS WITH A VCTS MENTION
FOR THOSE PORTS.

ADDNL STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPD TO DVLP SUN AS LOW PRES ADVNS ACRS
THE GT LKS/UP OH VLY RGN. TIMING RMNS QNABLE SO OPTED FOR A VCTS
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










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