Area Forecast Discussion
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375
FXUS61 KPBZ 031359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...EXITING THE RIDGES EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING OF RAIN DEPARTURE...MAINLY A BIT
FASTER...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.  REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN ERNEST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO ACCOMPANY
THE COLDER AIR AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND RIDGES. THE SHORTWAVE...PUSHING THE COLD AIR EASTWARD...WILL
SHEAR TOWARD THE NORTH AND WINDS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT TO
SWING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AFTER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE REST OF
THE DAY TO BE DRY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PAUSES AND THE FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. FLOW ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY INCREASE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
RATHER LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH
ZONE...AND ALSO A DRY AIRMASS BUILDING IN NEAR THE SURFACE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE POPS OUT.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME RATHER MUDDLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LONG TERM
WAS CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL AN APPROACHING STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO KZZV TOWARD 09Z AND THROUGH
KPIT TOWARD 12Z. WHILE SOME MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED...WINDS WILL BE
MAIN FACTOR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS...WITH
LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LLWS UNTIL AFTER FROPA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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