Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 141331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
931 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO SPAWN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS MADE FOR THE MRNG UPDT.
PREVIOUS DISC...BLDG HIGH PRES UNDR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL OTHERWISE
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER TDA. HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE TWEAKED USING THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE AND SREF MEANS.

ANOTHER COLD NGT IS EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH
LINGERS OVR THE AREA. HOWEVER...MDLS AGREE ON INITIATION OF WARM
ADVCTN ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR AS WELL AS AN UPR CLD INCRS TWD MRNG AS
JET STREAK DRAGS AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV TWD THE WRN LAKES.

WITH A WARMING COLUMN OVR SRN COUNTIES...INCRSD CS OVR THE N...AND
PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...SEE NO SERIOUS FROST ISSUE WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE USED THE COLDER...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS FOR LOW TEMPS THAT ARE PROGGED APPROXIMATELY A
DOZEN DEGREES UNDR THE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL RTN SHWR CHCS BY
MON NGT...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TIMING AND THE LIKELY POPS OVR THE NRN HALF OF
THE CNTY WRNG AREA...WHERE BTR UPR DYNAMICS AND MSTR SUPPLY ARE
ANTICIPATED.

COOL SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS
AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFT THE LAST OF THE MRNG VLY FG DSPTS...EXP VFR CONDS THRU TNGT
UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AM ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07



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