Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262307 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
707 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RIDE
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AS IT DOES
SO. CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND LARGELY BELOW 1000
J/KG AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES ARE WORKING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY TO MANIFEST SOME RATHER PERSISENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH SOME ORGANIZATION OVER OHIO. THIS WILL ALL CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND GIVEN SOME AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AS IT
DOES SO...PERIODIC GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT AS THESE
CELLS DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE SEVERE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND LOWER CLOUDS AS
DAWN APPROACHES. IN THE MEANTIME...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS.

MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND RETURN TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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