Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPBZ 060424
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1124 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016
Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the
region Tuesday. A Thursday cold front will return snow shower
chances and much colder temperatures for the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The low clouds have now almost completely eroded out of the
northeast counties, leaving just the advancing high clouds.
Clearing north of Pittsburgh has allowed temperatures to fall off
a bit more than previously forecast, and have made adjustments
there as well as in sky cover. This might have implications on
initial precipitation type, although advancement of the
precipitation shield may occur a bit more slowly than currently
depicted in the grids. Left PoPs/weather grids alone for now
pending fuller examination of 00Z data.
Previous discussion follows for the system that arrives on
Tuesday...As the high exits late tonight, a shortwave and
associated weak surface low is progged to track from the
Mississippi Valley region, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley region
Tuesday. Deep layer moisture, ascent and low level jet support
should result in widespread rain across much of the region.
With southeast upslope flow, cold air is expected to remain
across the higher terrain SE of PIT, where a winter weather
advisory has been issued to highlight a freezing rain threat. With
the low level jet, gusty winds are also expected in the higher
terrain. The cold temperatures should persist until the flow
veers to the southwest Tuesday evening, and precipitation exits.
Areas toward DUJ could also see a wintry mix with some light snow
or ice accumulation possible, though confidence in advisory level
precip in this area is lower. Included an HWO mention for this
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The shortwave and precip are progged to exit Tuesday night as the
surface low weakens, and coastal development occurs. Ridging
should return dry weather for Wednesday. A cold front is progged
for a Thursday passage, with subsequent upper troughing progged
across much of the eastern CONUS. Maintained high chance to likely
snow shower pops for this scenario. The boundary layer flow should
remain WSW preventing any lake enhancement. Temperatures are
expected to be a few degrees below average Wednesday, with
readings 10 to 15 degrees below average for Thursday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper troughing and cold W-WSW flow should persist across the
eastern CONUS through Friday maintaining snow shower chances. A
less amplified pattern is progged from the weekend through early
next week, with several crossing shortwaves progged. Maintained a
mention of chance pops from Saturday night through early next
week. Much below average temperatures are expected to moderate
with the less amplified pattern by early next week.
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Building high pressure is expected to alleviate MVFR cigs this
evening and maintain VFR for the night. Condition deterioration
will be quickly Tuesday morning, as low pressure spreads precip
over the region.
A strong cold front will bring more restrictions by Thursday.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday FOR
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday FOR
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday FOR