Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211943 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 243 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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CLDS AND FLURRIES CONT TO ERODE AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES...OTRW EXP MCLR SKIES TNGT. WRM ADVCTN ABV THE SFC SHOULD HELP SOMEWHAT LMT THE TEMP DROP TNGT...THOUGH IT WL STILL BE WELL BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG. AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE. MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/10

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