Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181153 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 753 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chance will continue through much of the day. The risk will return again Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Scattered showers with isolated thunder will continue into the midday, especially points east of Pittsburgh as a cold front slowly moves east. Moisture continues to surge northward ahead of the cold front, re-enforcing very muggy conditions and fueling these showers. Hi-res models showing good consensus on timing the front across the forecast area, and the resulting dissipation of showers/clouds through the afternoon. Low clouds will linger through at least midday, before eroding and lifting as drier air evident on water vapor imagery moves in. Highs may be highly dependent on shower/cloud dissipation, but are generally expected to be near average values. Tonight, some clearing will be realized, but we will remain under the influence of the upper trough. This could work in some additional clouds, but meager moisture will quell any shower chances. Lows will remain just above seasonal average values, but with lower dewpoints invading, it will feel much fresher.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry and cooler tonight. The next shortwave trough arrives Saturday afternoon. It appears another surface boundary will cross the area just ahead of the upper level energy, so would expect showers and storms to redevelop as the system passes through. Surface high builds in on Sunday as the flow aloft becomes zonal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday into Tuesday before another cold front brings a chance of rain back to the forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Series of shortwaves will maintain shower chances and restrictions through midday. IFR ceilings should gradually improve, with some improvement already indicated at ZZV and KFKL, as better mixing takes place with the approach and passage of the cold front. Most of the model guidance generates a line of showers and storms around midday, with the actual frontal boundary itself, with clearing skies anticipated behind. Will make a VCTS mention to cover this at the easternmost ports. Expect a SW to W wind shift with the frontal passage with wind gusts near 20kts. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with another passing disturbance Saturday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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