Area Forecast Discussion
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454 FXUS61 KPBZ 300534 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 134 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather will continue through the day with the chance for a shower or storm. A cold front will bring widespread precipitation on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Only minor adjustments to the overnight period. Hires model data is still showing the possibility of a few showers developing overnight with the crossing of a weak shortwave. After the passage of the morning shortwave, 500mb ridge will be well entrenched across the area and warm air will stream rapidly northward. Would expect sunshine to make a return this afternoon and temperatures to really jump in the broad warm sector. Models still holding on to some cloud cover across the far north and east, as the flow at the surface in these locales never loses its easterly component until late in the day. With the rise in temperatures, would also expect to see a bump in humidity levels. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions will remain warm and dry overnight and clouds will begin to fill back in toward Monday morning as atmospheric moisture increases ahead of the next front. Still seeing some timing difference in model solutions with the onset of showers on Monday. Will lean more toward a slower solution since the path of the upper level low is more toward the north on Monday and the trough axis will really not show much of an easterly swing until Monday afternoon. This will likely slow down the eastward progression of the surface front. However, once the large upper level system, which by Monday afternoon will be over the Western Great Lakes, becomes negatively tilted, the surface front will pick up forward speed and rush through Monday afternoon. Showers and storms will develop along the front as it moves eastward, with some enhancement in the strength of the precipitation late day Monday, as an area of strong low-level moisture convergence develops. This would likely be at a time when the front has reached the eastern half of the area. Front will clear the area Monday evening, with boundary associated showers/storms ending as well. Strong cold air advection will dive in behind the exiting system, bringing more clouds and the risk for additional showers. The cold air won`t be around for long on Tuesday, as winds swing around to the southwest during the morning and warm air advection will begin in ernest. The push of warmer air will also disperse the cloud cover, allowing for plenty of sunshine by the afternoon. Temperatures Tuesday will be near or slightly below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A southern stream trough will begin to spread moistures north toward the region by later Wednesday, with shower chances into the weekend as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average through late week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Stratus seems to have halted its southward spread as of 05z early this morning with some holes noted in it along and north of I-80. This stratus will likely start to erode from S-N as boundary layer flow slowly edges to southerly by morning. After that, VFR cumulus are basically all that will be expected for most of Sunday with clearing skies going into Sunday night, other than the possibility of some stratus reforming around KDUJ. .Outlook... Restrictions in showers/tstms are expected with a Monday cold front. Restrictions are possible again with Thursday low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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