Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291911 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 311 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm temperatures along with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The thunderstorms that produced over 2 inches of rain across Allegheny County earlier this afternoon have fallen apart and are now just an area of showers. A broken line of showers across eastern Ohio will continue to progress east, while a more concentrated area of rainfall and scattered thunderstorms is slowly moving from south to north across the eastern half of the forecast area as a result of the moisture feed from Tropical Depression Bonnie. Most of the rainfall should diminish after sunset, although an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across much of the region through the evening and overnight hours. A cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Monday morning. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler for the holiday, the greater impact will be clearing skies through the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for the middle portion of the week. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels using a blend of GFS gridded MOS and consensus guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Models in good overall agreement on a cold front approaching the region by Thursday afternoon and attempting to push east by Friday. A shortwave ahead of a trough axis moving across the great lakes may slow progression of the front Friday until trough passes so chance pops continued. No significant changes for Saturday with chance pops mainly for the ridges with lingering low level moisture. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend toward the seasonal average late week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across Pennsylvania terminals. While prevailing conditions will be VFR, any passing thunderstorm could potentially bring MVFR/IFR conditions for a short time period. All locations will be VFR by midnight, but fog will be a threat once again with skies potentially scattering out. Have gone with a bit of a persistence forecast, putting restrictions into TAFs at terminals that had restrictions last night. In addition, any terminals that receives heavy rainfall this afternoon, such as AGC, will have a greater chance for fog overnight. Conditions should return to VFR shortly after sunrise, with winds veering from the south to the west-northwest as a cold front crosses the region. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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