Area Forecast Discussion
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391 FXUS61 KPBZ 241611 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1211 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A period of above-normal temperature and increasing chances for rain is expected through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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With noon update, primary change was to increase high temperatures this afternoon, and may not have increased temperatures enough. Sky cover is currently less than expected, which has allowed for greater heating. The HRRR seemed to have the best handle on the temperature trends over the last hour or two, and blended in the latest run. This brings the high temperature for Pittsburgh close to 70, and this could be conservative. Additional cloud cover will move in from the west, but no precipitation is expected. Southwest winds will continue to gust to 20-30 mph.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A series of compact shortwave troughs will develop in the swrn CONUS and eject northeastward beginning Saturday. As the first wave acquires a negative tilt, shortwave ridging will amplify over the Great Lakes region, leading to a likely-nwd displacement of precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night. Steady height falls will begin to spread across the region Sunday morning as the ejecting wave nears. By afternoon, the associated H5 jet maximum will cross the forecast area, likely invigorating deeper convection with its passage amid modest instability. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... In the wake of the Sunday wave, a brief respite can be expected on Monday amid shortwave ridging before a second trough ejects from the Plains. This second wave will be favorable for widespread rain showers as it crosses on Tuesday as warm, moist air is drawn poleward ahead of the system. Behind the wave, seasonable air is expected to arrive mid-week. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Expect mainly dry weather in the warm sector of a broad low pressure system. Additional moisture will pool along a warm front located just north of the area tonight. This could bring restrictions with ceilings descending to low MVFR or IFR for northern ports of FKL/DUJ. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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