Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280032 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 832 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 835pm update...activity over the ridges has dissipated as the low level flow weakened and the sun is setting. Have removed all pops overnight and adjusted cloud cover. Temperatures have been modified with a blend of hires guidance. Previous discussion... Overnight lows will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 60s and based on maximum dewpoints observed today after the lower levels were given plenty of time to mix, potential for any patchy fog looks minimal. Even warmer temperatures are forecast tomorrow as ridging pumps up further over the forecast area. With no meaningful shortwaves/triggers progged or foreseen, convective activity will again be largely capped off. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Any isolated showers/storms that do pop up should quickly dissipate Saturday evening as conditions stabilize. A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region Sunday as the ridge shifts east. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue until the trough crosses sometime Monday. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front should cross the region Thursday into Friday, with models still differing on how quickly the front will approach the area. Wednesday appears to be the warmest day in the period, although the entire extended forecast will continue to have above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, but there are a couple of potential snags. Persistence, and the fact that overnight low temperatures are forecast to come in above crossover values, leads to fog being left out of the forecast for now. DUJ is a potential exception given that fog occurred this morning. There is also still a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm at any one location that could provide a brief visibility restriction, but chances remain too low for inclusion. CL .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend. Conditions should be dry Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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