Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280438 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1238 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE AS ALL PRECIP HAS FADED WITH FRONT ANALYZED TO BE STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR MGW...WHICH IS CLOSER TO A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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