Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270810 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 410 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PREVENT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN EASTERN RIDGE. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER STABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT WILL DESTABILIZE AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH WILL NOSE IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THIS INCREASE IN BUOYANCY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PLACE FOR ACTIVITY WOULD BE ACROSS THE THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG A LINE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. EXPECT A RANGE OF TEMPS TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH FINALLY ARRIVES. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT THESE WILL END QUICKLY. COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM STILL LOOKING WARM...HUMID AND ACTIVE. AT THIS POINT... MODEL DISCREPANCIES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION. BUT AT THIS POINT...WOULD THINK SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PA LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS LOW AND ONLY VCSH IN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS WITH FROPA AND LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING PSBL SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SUN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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