Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 280032 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
832 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected through the holiday weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
835pm update...activity over the ridges has dissipated as the low
level flow weakened and the sun is setting. Have removed all pops
overnight and adjusted cloud cover. Temperatures have been
modified with a blend of hires guidance.
Overnight lows will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 60s
and based on maximum dewpoints observed today after the lower
levels were given plenty of time to mix, potential for any patchy
fog looks minimal.
Even warmer temperatures are forecast tomorrow as ridging pumps up
further over the forecast area. With no meaningful
shortwaves/triggers progged or foreseen, convective activity will
again be largely capped off. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any isolated showers/storms that do pop up should quickly
dissipate Saturday evening as conditions stabilize.
A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region
Sunday as the ridge shifts east. Shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected to continue until the trough crosses sometime
Monday. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal levels.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for
dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front should cross the
region Thursday into Friday, with models still differing on how
quickly the front will approach the area. Wednesday appears to be
the warmest day in the period, although the entire extended
forecast will continue to have above normal temperatures.
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, but there are a
couple of potential snags. Persistence, and the fact that overnight
low temperatures are forecast to come in above crossover values,
leads to fog being left out of the forecast for now. DUJ is a
potential exception given that fog occurred this morning.
There is also still a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm at
any one location that could provide a brief visibility
restriction, but chances remain too low for inclusion.
.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend. Conditions should be dry Tuesday and