Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180807 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 307 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain well above normal into the weekend, with rain showers from time to time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Shortwave/closed low moves across the region this morning with scattered showers. With weak cold advection, temperatures will not recover much from morning lows, but will still remain well above seasonal averages. The mid level low is progged to shift southeast by late Wednesday morning and building high pressure will help diminish showers as the day progresses. Temperatures will have a small rebound from morning readings, as weak cold advection continues. Dry with relatively mild temperatures tonight as a mid level ridge begins to build across the region. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry and mild weather will continue Thursday under mid level ridge, before a closed low over the Central Plains opens and lifts northeast for Friday. This will bring a round of rain and continued mild temperatures. Heights will then rise again for Saturday as this system exits, with a dry and mild start for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models differ on timing and placement of a strong upper low that will develop over the Southern Plains and move northeast Sunday into early next week. Using a general model blend for the system brings period of rain Sunday into Tuesday with temperatures between 10-15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR forecast at most ports, but FKL and DUJ look to hang around in the IFR cat. Its very possible, especially around dawn, that ports with MVFR cigs will see a brief period of IFR. Have covered this risk with a tempo group. Forecast soundings are indicating that winds could gust from 15 to 20kts at any time, so have increased winds from previous forecast. .OUTLOOK... Expect general VFR from late Wednesday until the next system moves in on Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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