Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201904 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 204 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and warm weather will continue into Tuesday. A weak front will bring some showers late Tuesday and Tuesday night, but temperatures will continue to be well above normal this week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Last of the stratus is finally breaking up over southeast Ohio as of this writing. Due to the slow cloud breakup, the high temperature forecast for this afternoon has taken a downward turn. High clouds will continue to stream across through the night. Some light fog will be possible in southeast Ohio late tonight, but dense fog is not expected. This is due to the expectation of a more mixed boundary layer as low level southeast flow increases on the backside of the departing surface high. A slower progression of the next weak frontal boundary remains the trend in the models, such that precipitation is now not expected CWA-wide prior to 18Z. Have reduced PoPs a bit, mostly below likely values, with most activity holding off until Tuesday night with the actual frontal passage. Temperatures will remain well above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The front will enter the region Tuesday night, but it is questionable whether it will survive the trek across as the temperature gradient slackens with time. There is some modest right entrance region support from the 300 mb jet overnight, but much of the moisture remains to the south and there is little isentropic help ahead of the front. Will continue with likely PoPs with the expectation of a light QPF event. A few showers may linger southeast of Pittsburgh after 12Z Wednesday before ending by midday. Flat ridging follows for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a dry interlude. By late Wednesday night, developing low level southwest flow begins to induce isentropic lift and a slow increase in moisture. This may be enough to produce a touch of light rain or showers after 06Z Thursday, and have slight chance PoPs for this. Little change in airmass will result from the front, and have continued with temperatures well above climatology.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not sure how much precipitation will be across the region on Thursday with a front north of the region. Have continued chance pops through this period, as well as Thursday night along the warm front associated with strong low pressure in the central plains. As warm as this week will be, Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with many locations possibly seeing 70 degrees. A cold front will bring showers along with a chance of thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning, as well as much more seasonable temperatures. Some scattered showers could persist into Saturday night, and depending on the timing, may end as a few snow showers. Expect dry and seasonable weather Sunday before another chance of rain comes with a system racing across the Tennessee Valley. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue at all sites. Cannot rule out another round of fog/stratus tonight into Tuesday morning, particularly south and west of Pittsburgh, but with calm winds not expected, 5 kt winds should be able to provide enough mixing to prevent restrictions from dropping much lower than the MVFR range. High clouds will be on the increase Tuesday in advance of a cold front Tuesday night. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with a Tuesday night trough and a late Friday/early Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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