Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210132 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 932 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain warm, and generally dry weather into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Changes for the early eve update were primarily cosmetic as isolated showers will fade as the sun sets and as the supporting disturbance digging toward the mid atlantic states progresses. Given the presence of a weak front sagging across the I 76 corridor, and the pooling of decent surface dewpoints near the boundary, have maintained an extensive fog mention given expectations of fading cloud cover and light wind. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As the aforementioned disturbance digs eastwards, mid/upper ridging will enhance over the Eastern U.S. in response to Western troughing and TS Jose. Dry and warm weather will thus prevail into the weekend. Expect temperature about a dozen degrees above the averages. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Little change is foreseen in the overall circulation pattern through at least Tuesday, with the western trough/eastern ridging pattern persisting. By early next week, some models suggest that Hurricane Maria may track near the Atlantic seaboard. Moisture on the very outer periphery of the circulation may get pushed into our higher elevations on easterly flow by Tuesday, resulting in some light showers. Will add a slight chance PoP to the grids for this possibility into Wednesday. The upper ridge may start to be knocked down by and approaching Upper Midwest shortwave by the end of the period, but any frontal precipitation may not arrive until after Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR should deteriorate to IFR in fog overnight/early Thu morning as crossover temps are reached, and as moisture pools along a weakening sfc boundary across Wrn PA through Nrn OH. A building ridge and mixing should return VFR Thu morning through the rest of the TAF period. .Outlook... Other than local morning fog, no widespread restrictions expected under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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