Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 110608 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 208 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SCATTERED CU WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AS DAWN APPROACHES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. MID JULY SUN WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS THERE AND POSSIBLY A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT STORY FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE WAVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FOCUSING ON A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AS THIS WAVE FORCES IT WAY INTO THE RIDGE IT WASTES MUCH OF ITS ENERGY. THE STRONGER WAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW. THIS SCENARIO WILL SLOW THE ONSET OF POPS SAT NIGHT AND PUSH THE MORE LIKELY TIME FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. UNTIL MODELS FIND A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY... FORECAST WILL BE ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE SIDE. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVES WILL BE THE CRUCIAL ELEMENT FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD BE A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT...POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPS DOWN BELOW CONVECTIVE LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL CONT AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE RGN AHD OF A SLOW MOVG CDFNT. THE FNT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA TUE. SFC HIGH PRES WL THEN BLD IN THRU THU UNDER A GT LKS UPR TROF WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDS. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOG DEVELOPING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS AND A CHANCE OF LIFR AT MGW AND FKL. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOCAL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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