Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030444 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1244 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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STALLED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND HEAD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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BIGGEST QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE WHAT TO DO WITH THE CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS... CURRENTLY COVERING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOW FAR NORTH WILL BE THE QUESTION. AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TODAY...WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF MY AREA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN WV. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CLOSED UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SLOWLY TRUDGE EASTWARD...BEFORE WEAKENING AND CROSSING THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. STILL EXPECT MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT TO LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE RIDGES...AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS MOST MOISTURE LOCKED UP THERE. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO MIDLEVEL RIPPLES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. DID REDUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT LOOKS DELAYED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AREAWIDE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON BACK OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE LACK OF A COHERENT TRIGGER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY WEST OF THE RIDGES. WEAK UPSLOPING WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A DAMMING LOOK TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND/TEMP PROFILES. FEWER CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL POINT TO A WARMING TREND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROP OF THE JET AXIS AND A BETTER CHANCE THE STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MAINLY MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING FOR MOST PORTS SOUTH OF I 80 AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. FAR NORTHERN PORTS SHOULD STAY VFR WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. THE STRATUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT INTO A DIURNAL CU LAYER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER PERSISTENT TROUGHING WITH DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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