Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS. DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLDFRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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