Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 272236 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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CONVECTION FROM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS GENERALLY WORKED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT. OUTFLOW ENHANCED ASCENT SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS ALONG A LINE OF HEAVIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST SEEMS TO MAINTAINING THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE SAGGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL FROM THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPANDS WITH TIME. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD A SECONDARY INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF SURFACE INVOLVEMENT BY THAT JUNCTURE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DOES SLIDE THROUGH...POPS ARE SECONDARILY INCREASED TOWARD LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD. FRIES OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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