Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 292256 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 656 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather will continue through the weekend with a chance for showers and storms...mainly Sunday morning. A cold front will bring more widespread precipitation on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Warm air aloft will keep things capped the remainder of the day and through the evening before a small shortwave crosses early Sunday raising chances for a few showers an possibly a thunderstorm. Model guidance shows no apparent trigger on Sunday to help overcome warm air aloft with ridging overhead despite temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s....so expect the area to remain largely dry after the aforementioned shortwave moves out of the area. These temps/dewpoints will make Sunday feel much more like summer than spring. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night with continued warm and humid conditions. Ridge begins to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers and thunderstorms with FROPA. Much cooler temperatures will arrive Tuesday, with shower chances especially toward I-80 as a closed mid level low moves into eastern Canada. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A southern stream trough will begin to spread moistures north toward the region by later Wednesday, with shower chances into the weekend as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average through late week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MVFR to local IFR ceilings should persist N of PIT tonight on the N side of a surface boundary. Otherwise, VFR is expected through Sunday, though isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible late tonight/Sun morning as the boundary returns N as a warm front. With a lack of upper support, and the low level jet remaining W of the area, precip coverage should be limited. Capping warmth aloft should help limit thunderstorm potential Sunday afternoon. Increasing mixing and a tightening pressure gradient should result gusty SW winds by afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions in showers/tstms are expected with a Monday cold front. Restrictions are possible again with Thursday low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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