Area Forecast Discussion
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265 FXUS61 KPBZ 162322 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 622 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Another upper level disturbance will approach Sunday afternoon to increase precipitation chances. Warmer temperature can be expected for the coming week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The early eve update featured a quicker ending to residual light snow for areas north of Clarion given radar trends in the wake of the supporting jet streak. Otherwise, building high pressure will support a quiet night with ensuing warm, relatively moist advection holding lows a few degrees above the seasonal averages. No changes were needed for that portion of the forecast. An upper shortwave will approach Sunday afternoon and increase light precipitation chances, but warm advection is expected to support rain, possibly a mix for counties north of Pittsburgh. Surface temperature is expected to be warm enough that no problems are anticipated.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Shortwave will depart quickly to the east Sunday night, leaving nearly zonal flow aloft and some uncertainty to boundary placement through the period as additional weak shortwaves pass. With no considerable lift apparent in the guidance but plenty of moisture, expect mostly cloudy conditions and very light precipitation. At this point, profiles are not even well saturated above the boundary layer which suggests little more than drizzle through this time frame. Made only modest adjustments to the PoPs through the short term to reflect some of the newer guidance but generally think chance is appropriate given the likelihood of drizzle versus measurable rain. Despite expected cloud cover, warm advection should lead to temperatures at least near seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A broad trough will drop into the central CONUS Tuesday night sweeping a cold front through the area. This could re-invigorate showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, but will help drive temperatures back to near-normal values. Upper-level flow returns to zonal behind the front, bringing a drier and warmer trend until the latter part of the week. Models still have another system/cold front for Friday, but strength and placement of the low have changed with newest guidance. Will hold close to the SuperBlend for precipitation details, and look for clarity in the coming guidance packages. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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For FKL and DUJ, MVFR ceilings will linger through most of the period as clouds remain in vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary. Otherwise, building high pressure will ensure VFR. Condition deterioration can be expected by Sunday evening as another disturbance spreads light precipitation over area terminals. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Tuesday, as abundant low-level moisture may become trapped underneath an inversion for an extended period. IFR conditions are possible at times.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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