Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280825 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 425 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of crossing disturbances will keep rain in the forecast into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Models now showing showers, and possibly a few storms, reaching the area a bit faster as the surface low speed has increased just a bit. Have increased PoPs faster, particularly over the south and increased cloud cover as well. A series of upper level impulses will move across the south today, with the strongest reaching my southwestern zones as afternoon approaches. The wave of energy will be accompanied by the surface wave, which reaches Southern Ohio by early afternoon, and then slides eastward near MGW by the evening. Highest PoPs and QPF will be located over the southern half of the area. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures lower then the past few days. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models continue to struggle with the placement and amount of the heaviest rainfall tonight. Some of the ops models appear to have convective feedback problems this evening and overnight as the surface low moves to the east and the trailing upper level trough swings through. It still looks that the best chance for heavier rainfall will be confined to the locations near the Mason- Dixon line this evening and possibly into early Friday morning. Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the low and aforementioned trough. The upper level system will exit the forecasting area Friday morning, decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region. Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and Saturday, keeping in shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rain will overspread the area today as frontal boundary currently along the PA/MD border shifts north slightly early today before a mid-level shortwave and accompanying surface low tracks across southeastern portions of the forecast area tonight. All terminals will see showers, with TAF locations south of Pittsburgh likely seeing the most rain and a chance of thunderstorms. Based off of model soundings restrictions look limited to MVFR during precipitation with the first feature and tonight MGW and LBE likely seeing IFR cig restrictions as this is where the bulk of the moisture will be. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction potential through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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