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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241628
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE
IMPACT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MIX OUT TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
OUT...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE
NIGHTFALL...LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE. OR...AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS....CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ELIMINATING THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS GUIDANCE AND
MAINTAINED CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
KMGW AND KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GENERAL BROKEN VFR CEILINGS BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. STRATOCU
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AND LOWER INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
     029-031-073-075.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021-022.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$
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