Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060219 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND -13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND GEFS GUIDANCE, && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE... PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926. MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960. ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978. PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901. MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND 1972. ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960. ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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