Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262145
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
545 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Rain is expected tonight and again Monday night into Tuesday as
areas of low pressure cross the region. Dry weather and seasonal
temperatures are expected by mid week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure near Chicago is progged to track to Southern
Ontario by morning. Increasing shortwave support through the
evening should continue to result in showers crossing the
region. Meso analysis shows very little instability across our
area, though with elevated shear levels gusty winds are
possible in any storm that becomes organized through early
evening. The low`s associated occluded front is progged for a
light night passage, with decreasing shower chances thereafter.
Shortwave ridging should return dry weather to the area by late
morning. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees
above seasonal levels.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Monday evening showers along with another low pressure system
will begin to move in from the west, and another round of
showers is forecast late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Showers will linger into Tuesday afternoon before high pressure
brings cooler and drier air for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
While the first 24 hours of the period will remain mild, values
Tuesday night and Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than
the previous day.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A sprawling low pressure system will spread rain across much of
the eastern United States. The ECMWF and GFS have come into
better agreement than they were 24 hours ago, showing showers
moving into the region Thursday night, continuing into Friday
and Friday night. A stray shower could remain into Saturday
before dry weather returns Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonable
temperatures are expected through the extended forecast.
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure tracking across the OH valley/lower Great Lakes
will result in 3 distinct periods of showers the remainder of
the afternoon and tonight. VFR looks more likely to be
maintained after the first wave...but as moisture increases in
the lower levels deterioration to low MVFR is likely.
Thunderstorms still remain a possibility, however, have not been
included in TAFs at this time based on limited instability.
Restrictions are likely again Mon night/Tue with a crossing