Area Forecast Discussion
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005 FXUS61 KPBZ 080211 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 911 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will result in a return to cold temperatures and periodic snow showers through the end of the week. More widespread precipitation is likely Sunday with crossing low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 910pm update...only change to previous update is a refreshing of overnight lows. Previous discussion... Clouds should continue to increase tonight with the approach and passage of a shortwave as a main upper low moves into Ontario. Deep layer moisture is lacking, so little if any precip is expected. Lows should be near the seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper troughing extending from the Canadian upper low, and cold advection, should persist across the Eastern CONUS through Friday. The boundary layer flow is progged to remain WSW Thursday, keeping any lake enhanced snow showers mainly north of the forecast area. A weak surface trough is expected to cross the area Thursday night and Friday morning, resulting in veering boundary layer winds to the WNW, a brief increase in moisture, heightening of the inversion levels, and re enforcing cold advection. This should result in the best potential for snow showers across much of the area. Some lake enhancement is expected especially for areas north of I 80, where the best potential exists to see a few inches of snow. Will maintain the HWO mention for this potential where an advisory may eventually be needed. While snow showers are likely in the ridges, the flow is not optimal for significant accumulations. Building high pressure and backing winds should bring an end to the snow showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures should average around 10 degrees below seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A midwestern trough and associated surface low is progged for approach and passage Sunday and Sunday night, with a period of snow likely. Persistent upper troughing across the Northeast CONUS should maintain periodic snow shower chances and colder than average temperatures for the rest of the long term period. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... General VFR will continue overnight. Stratocu deck will begin to cover the area from north to south tomorrow morning as strong cold air advection ensues. This will lower all ports to mvfr by afternoon. Expect west to southwest winds under 10 KTs overnight, increasing to over 10 Kts with gusts over 20 to 25Kts Thursday as a cold front crosses the region. .OUTLOOK... Scattered restrictions in snow showers are expected into Saturday. The next chance for widespread IFR will be with snow Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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