Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231147 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 647 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY STAGNATED WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S ARE A FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG OUR NWRN PERIPHERY. WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY 240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK ALONG THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A 60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN 00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL. MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY. BOOKBINDER && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. BOOKBINDER && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON. TAX OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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