Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242143 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 543 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...AND DESPITE THE RELATIVELY THIN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH KEPT LOWS IN THE 40`S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM FELT COMFORTABLE WITH SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEM AND ADDING CATEGORICAL POPS. IN ADDITION TO THE POPS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS THE BUFKIT PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME WEAK CAPE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. NOT SURE WHETHER THIS WILL MATERIALIZE WITH THE STABILIZATION FROM PREFRONTAL RAINFALL BUT SINCE ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST IT...OPTED TO MAKE AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT BUT THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY PROVIDING FOR A DRY DAY...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT SFC WIND THROUGH TNGT. SHWR AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL INCRS ON FRIDAY WITH THE APCH OF A CDFNT. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY TO THE N OF I 70 AS COOL NW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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