Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241020 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 620 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will give dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front is crossing into northern West Virginia at 07z and will continue to shift south this morning. Some low stratus and mid deck with and behind the boundary will mix out later this morning as much lower dew points arrive on northeast winds. High pressure will bring clear skies tonight through Sunday, with seasonably cool temperatures across the I-80 corridor closer to the core of cooler air aloft. Temperatures from Pittsburgh south will be up to 5 degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deepening Low pressure moving into the upper Great lakes will sweep a cold front across the region Monday, with models now relatively close on timing the front east of the ridges by Monday evening. Have bumped up POPs to likely with the fropa considering the strong dynamics with the front, although QPF will be on the lighter side as moisture will be limited. Precip will end in the ridges later Monday evening, with much cooler air working into the region Tuesday as a closed low aloft shifts east across the lakes. A few showers may develop in the cold advection north of I-80 Tuesday afternoon, but southwest flow on the front of the upper low will keep bulk of lake enhanced showers north of the region. Temperatures will warm into the 70s to near 80 ahead of the front Monday, followed by a sharp cool down into the 60s behind the front Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Large upper trough will remain over the Great Lakes for the start of the period, transitioning eastward and replaced by broad ridging by the end of the week. The best chance for showers will be Wednesday in cold advection/lake enhanced showers as the trough pivots to the east. After Wednesday the deterministic models diverge slightly but ensemble guidance suggests a prolonged dry period with gradual warming to near and above seasonal levels. Have opted to stay close to a blend of guidance, with less emphasis on the ecmwf. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Stratus will continue to diminish with dry advection expected. Cigs remain VFR or MVFR in most cases, with the excetion of ZZV, HLG, and DUJ. Will tempo restrictions at a couple of sites this morning but otherwise expect VFR to prevail. Wind will remain light out of the north through the remainder of the period. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will come with a late Monday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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