Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 112206 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 606 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH 6PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST AS DIURNAL CU FIELD IS ALREADY WANING. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE POOLING IN THE RIDGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD AGAIN PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CERTAINLY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEAN H500 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL-PUBLICIZED COOLDOWN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN HOWEVER...SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAKE A RETURN PUSH INTO THE CWA. ALONG WITH THE AMPLE UPPER SUPPORT...THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL TREND NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS CONTINUED...WITH THE SATURDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE DEFLECTING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WITH SOME ENERGY LOADING BACK FOR SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AREAWIDE...BEST SUPPORT FROM RFQ OF H250 UPPER JET WILL BE SKIMMING THE NORTHWEST CWA. KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT. KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE. FOR SUNDAY...UPPER SUPPORT NOTED ABOVE BUILDS IN OVER CWA IN A BROAD SENSE. PWATS TOP OUT AROUND 2 INCHES...AND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE AREAWIDE. SPC HAS MUCH OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. NOT A BAD IDEA WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT H700...CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND DECENTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS. FRONT ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...SLOWING CONSIDERABLY. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED UPPER SUPPORT AND AMPLE MOISTURE. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BECOME A CONCERN WITH TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT MORE LACKING AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. FRONT FINALLY STARTS TO MAKE MORE HEADWAY LATER MONDAY NIGHT...AND ALLOW POPS TO START DROPPING OFF. CL && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL CONT AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE RGN AHD OF A SLOW MOVG CDFNT. THE FNT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA TUE. SFC HIGH PRES WL THEN BLD IN THRU THU UNDER A GT LKS UPR TROF WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDS. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH DIURNAL CU FIELD BASED AT NEAR 5KFT. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOCAL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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