Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 080541 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 141 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THURSDAY KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME GETTING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED...SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS MINIMAL...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH DROVE THE FRONT THROUGH...WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RE-FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THIS WOULD PLACE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF PIT. ONCE AGAIN...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN A CONCERN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... CHANCES FOR RAIN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO NORTHEASTERN INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW WILL PULL THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND RACE THROUGH THE AREA...REACHING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ALL LOCATIONS... WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FRIDAY DRY. THIS HIGH SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PA. AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS EARLY THIS MORNING FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...WITH IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AT MOST PORTS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH LATE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING SHOWERS SOUTHERN PORTS. .OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ059-068- 069. PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ021-029- 031-073>076. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-004- 012-021>023-041. && $$

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