Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262111 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 511 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Changes for the early eve update were minor, but included adjustments to cloud cover as cirrostratus blowing off of the convective complex crossing WV is more extensive than previously thought. The shortwave spawning that convection will slowly progress eastward this evening. Small PoPs over areas south of I 70, where the surface boundary is stalled, will be maintained through the eve. Otherwise, no changes were completed to the temperature forecast which was based on a model blend solution. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Guidance continues to keep the stalled boundary over the southeast zones and initiate convection over the most unstable areas while another weak shortwave crosses the region. Otherwise, Zonal flow/flat ridging should maintain dry, but continued warm weather through much of Wednesday. Thereafter, POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low is forecast to progress. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging should return dry weather by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday with building high pressure N of I 70. A weak surface boundary south of I 70 could result in a few showers through early tonight, but mention was reserved for amendments as coverage looks to be sparse near terminals. Mid and upper cloudiness should limit fog, but mention will be maintained over southern terminals, where moisture will remain pooled near the stalled front. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure should return potential restrictions late Thursday and Friday, with upper troughing maintaining periodic restriction chances through the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.