Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 282319 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 719 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight. An approaching front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the area late this week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... No changes needed for the near term forecast. High pressure departing the Eastern Seaboard will allow for southwest flow, with a warm advection pattern continuing. High clouds will dominate overnight, with deeper moisture holding off until Thursday. Low temperatures will be closer to climatology than the previous couple of nights. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cloud coverage will increase Thursday morning in warm advection ahead of an approaching shortwave progged to track north of the forecast area. Overall, models have trended farther north with this feature and continue to show marginal instability. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase mainly near and N of I 80 with locations to the south having a better chance at remaining capped. Friday will be similar but with greater total thunderstorm coverage as surface dewpoints climb into the high 60s and surface-based instability increases. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The Midwestern upper trough is progged to advance E Saturday driving a cold front across the area. Dry weather is expected to return Sun/Mon as surface ridging builds underneath the upper trough. Another trough is progged to advance E from the Midwest and Plains regions Tue, though with uncertainty in timing and location limited POPs to the chance category for now on the 4th of July. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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General VFR is forecast through the period. High clouds will slowly lower with time, with mid clouds appearing ahead of an approaching disturbance by morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may appear mainly north of PIT after 18Z, but coverage and confidence preclude a specific mention at this time. Winds will be southwest through tomorrow, with gusts from 20 to 25 knots expected Thursday afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Restriction chances will increase Friday and Saturday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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