Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192317 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 617 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Latest satellite imagery shows cloud coverage south of I-70 continuing to dissipate under increasing subsidence as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a decent radiational cooling night. Observed dewpoints in the mid 40s south of Pittsburgh this afternoon hint that there should be a favorable hydrolapse as the temperature drops and surface dewpoint depression narrows...allowing for patchy fog development by early morning. Dry and mild conditions will continue on Monday with high pressure remaining the dominant feature.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong ridging will keep very warm temperatures across the region into Tuesday. A weak front will arrive with a shortwave to beat down mid levels heights somewhat Tuesday, and give likely POPs for showers mainly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. High pressure will end showers for Wednesday, with temperatures remaining 15 to 20 degrees above average. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Long term continues to highlight very warm temperatures to end the work week, as another mid level ridge builds across the eastern CONUS. As a trough amplifies over the southwestern US and ejects into the Central Plains by late week, shower chances will increase later Thursday into Friday. Low pressure moving northeast across the Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front east Friday night with showers, and with strong mid level dynamics, a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures falling back toward the seasonal norms for Saturday into Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the evening under building high pressure. Higher dew points are in place S of I 70 where cloud cover prevented full mixing during the day. These areas should see IFR/local LIFR fog and possible stratus overnight through early Monday morning. The fog should burn off as mixing begins, with VFR conditions expected for all ports the rest of the day under the high. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with a Tuesday trough and a late Friday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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