Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290236 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 936 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A WARM UP WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND 50S SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE WILL GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH AN INCH. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUMP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...THUS DESPITE BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERCAST OR NEAR OVERCAST SKY COVER IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN ARRIVES FIRST IN EASTERN OHIO BY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM WAA ALOFT...SO LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED INITIALLY FROM THE GRIDDED LAMP TONIGHT THEN A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND ADJ MET BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEATHER DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE DAY AS BROAD LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CROSS SECTIONS OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE INDICATES UPGLIDE / POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION FROM THE SURFACE TO 775MB. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ARE SURPRISINGLY MODEST FOR THIS EVENT WITH VALUES REACHING 6GKG-1 SATURDAY NIGHT AT 290K. QPF VALUES WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT GIVEN LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER FEATURE. AMOUNTS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OR LESS...WHICH WARRANTS LIGHT RAIN ATTRIBUTE IN WEATHER GRIDS. INCREASED POPS TO LKLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA WHILE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT`S APPROACH BY LATE SUNDAY. WHILE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG MID- LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THUS...LIKELY POPS WERE CARRIED OVER OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG W-SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL BE REALIZED EARLY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY LINGER FOR A DAY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY. NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FOR WEAK...FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PREVAILING VFR ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERRUPTED BY A PD OF RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY MVFR...TNGT AS A FAST SHRTWV INTERACTS WITH AN ADVNG WARM FRONT. THOSE RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK AT FKL AND DUJ WITH THE WARM FRONT IN VCNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A LGT SFC WIND BACKING FM SW TO S AS THESE FEATURES PROGRESS. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PD. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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