Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211827 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 227 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS AND HPC FOR QPF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS. TAX/TG && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALTHOUGH STRATIFORM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY AFFECT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THE REST OF TAF SITES. A SECONDARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO FKL/DUJ TAFS AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT DID NOT WANT TO BLANKET ALL SITES WITH THAT IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT MANY SOUTHERN TERMINALS. ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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