Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250438 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1238 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A couple of crossing disturbances will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio Valley Region this morning, and again late this afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Changes for the midnight update included an upward adjustment for precip probability as well as timing adjustments in response to convection moving out of Ohio under a shortwave in zonal flow aloft. In short, numerous showers and storms can be expected through the predawn hours with a taper-off thereafter as the supporting disturbances progresses eastward. Lows are expected to be around 10 degrees above seasonal levels given increased dewpoints and lack of radiation. The midday period is expected to be dry given shortwave ridging between disturbances. Temperature was thus adjusted upward toward higher guidance; however, the next in series of disturbances is progged to trigger another round of convection focused on a weak front moving off the great lakes late today/this evening. Likely POPS were maintained for extreme northern zones. Increased flow aloft may support some severe thunderstorms, but this potential is expected to be tempered via very warm mid level temperature.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Precipitation chances are projected to wane on Friday as surface high pressure builds in the wake of a weak front. Given the strength of the upper ridge, southward frontal penetration is questionable, but will generally persist with a dry forecast through Saturday as per the latest deterministic trends as flow becomes zonal. Warm weather will continue as zonal flow across the northern ridge periphery shunts warm air across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flow is expected to back to a southwesterly direction as an upper high enhances and shifts towards the Mid-Atlantic. As a result of the strengthening ridge, anonymously high surface temperatures and upper heights are predicted by ensemble models and have led to higher confidence in raising forecast temps early in the period. Overall, hot and humid conditions can be expected in the beginning of the long term until the passage of a shortwave on Monday provides some relief from the heat. POPs were maintained in association of the aforementioned shortwave as per the latest Superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and a few thunderstorms will encroach from the west during the early portions of the forecast. Expect coverage and intensity to continue to decrease overnight, so have only included restrictions in a tempo group. Shortwave that has sparked the activity will clear the area quickly this morning. Expect a quick return to vfr conditions after sunrise. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.