Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 250520
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1220 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds this morning.
Temperatures behind the front will fall back to near seasonal
averages by Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Have issued a quick update to further refine timing of frontal
passage based on latest trends and rapid update model
guidance. Overall, expect the line of showers/thunderstorms to
gradually weaken over the course of the night but strong winds
along and behind the boundary will be common with gusts between
25 mph and 45 mph.
Previous discussion follows..
Showers and a some thunderstorms will accompany the cold front
across the region later tonight and early Saturday. Convection,
albeit weakening, in the strengthening wind field may still
support some marginal, to low-end severe wind gusts.
Gusty wind is also likely in the wake of the front with the
pressure surge, and as cold advection reinforces the top of the
Temperature will fall behind the front, so Saturday highs are
expected very early.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough will swing through Saturday night,
invigorating snow shower chances through pre-dawn Sunday.
Westerly fetch and eroding moisture will limit snow production
as the system begins to pull away. In general, less than an inch
is expected across northern counties and into the mountains.
Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere.
Zonal flow behind the trough will bring in high pressure at the
surface. This will suppress any lingering snow showers Sunday
morning and should begin to erode cloud cover. After falling
steadily through Sunday morning, temperatures should moderate
Sunday to near normal values.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad southwest flow aloft will continue until midweek, when the
pattern amplifies slightly and a shallow trough develops over
the northeast U.S. One weak piece of energy in the midlevels may
provide some light precipitation on Monday. Deeper moisture flow
and an approaching shortwave will provide better chances on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Leaned heavily on Superblend guidance as
models like the GFS and ECMWF are still struggling a bit with
timing and strength details. A relatively quiet Thursday will be
followed by a possible clipper on Friday. Above normal
temperatures early in the week will be followed by normal or
slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday in
the developing trough.
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions can be expected through midnight, but deterioration
will occur thereafter as a cold front spawns restrictions with
showers and some thunderstorms. A llws mention was maintained as
wind above the boundary layer will be strengthening with the
eastward digging midwestern trough.
Wind will veer to the w in the wake of the front. Sfc gusts of
25 to 30 will again be possible as MVFR stratocu and sct showers
linger into the aftn.
Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled
weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week.