Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231942 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 242 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA. COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBY AND CIGS OVERNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. FOR MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CRANKS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004- 012-021>023-041. && $$ 07/10

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