Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221859 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 259 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A WARMING TREND AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... ABUNDANT STRATUS CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE SHEAR BELOW THE STUBBORN 4 KFT INVERSION LEVEL. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING BELOW THIS LEVEL...MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND HURON CONTINUES TO COME OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...SHEAR BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE RIDGES BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RAPIDLY DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE. WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WEAK OVERNIGHT FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THOSE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT CLEAR FIRST AND ARE THE MOST ISOLATED AMONGST THE TERRAIN. IN THESE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST THE RIDGES...FROST WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD. AS SUCH...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER/EASTERN WESTMORELAND/EASTERN FAYETTE THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 30S WILL BE QUITE COMMON IN THESE LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN THE REGIME...THE COLDEST SPOTS WILL LIKELY DROP NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN THAT FROST IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...YET SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A MORE PRUDENT HEADLINE THAN A FREEZING WARNING. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE INTO THE SHORT TERM AS MID- LEVEL HEIGHT VALUES SOAR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO CREEP UP THE APPALACHIANS ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY...HOWEVER A LACK OF FORCING AND NEARBY SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BEING A LARGE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...DRY CONDITIONS WERE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING ABOVE NORMAL LARGELY INTO THE MID 70S. FRIES && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041. && $$

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