Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010534 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 134 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will continue to produce bands of showers across the region into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The semi-resident upper low will continue to reside in the Ohio Valley through the near term forecast period. Hi-res models really are failing to handle ongoing bands of precipitation over the area very well early this morning, however upstream radar trends combined with the redevelopment and persistence of an upper jet streak entrance region over the area should allow for a secondary expansion of showers over the area. This will occur even as drier air on water vapor imagery starts to come over more of the region through the night. As the upper low starts to meander northeastward a bit through the day on Saturday, colder mid-level temperatures will allow for steeper lapse rates to favor additional shower formation over the northwestern CWA, while continued upper divergence over the eastern CWA will favor development there. As such, nothing less than chance PoPs have been included in the forecast for Saturday. However, due to more likelihood of breaks in the clouds as well as the slow trending of low level flow from the east to southwest during the day, temperatures should go up several degrees from those seen on Friday. The upper low will continue to migrate northeastward tonight allowing for deeper layer southwesterly flow to become established. This will allow for the dry slot to make serious inroads into the CWA, which means PoPs will trend down decidedly overnight into Sunday morning. Fries && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Very slow movement to closed low as it shifts toward New England by Sunday night, followed by rising heights Monday as a ridge begins to build across the region. Scattered showers will remain across much of the region through Sunday, then mainly toward I-80 Monday as low exits. Temperatures will average above normal through the period, as overnight lows will be well above the seasonal average. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A ridge of high pressure will be over the region through Thursday with dry conditions and mild temperatures. A weak frontal boundary will approach Friday, and chance POPs were introduced. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weakening surface flow will be evident over all sites through the night. Combined with scattered showers, this should allow CIGs to trend downward through the night, however VIS restrictions should be minimal and fairly local. Drier air will move into the area on Saturday in the mid-levels, however colder air aloft will mean showers should redevelop with the upper low drifting nearby. Even still, conditions should largely improve to VFR at most sites. Fries .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Brief IFR/MVFR restrictions will linger into Monday when the upper level low finally departs. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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