Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221919 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 319 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front on Monday will bring rain and an end to above normal temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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One more night of dry weather is in the forecast. A cold front currently across the Midwest will shift to the east slowly overnight and showers will remain west of the forecast area through sunrise. Temperatures will be very mild overnight, with forecast lows only a few degrees below normal daytime highs. Widespread rain should reach the Interstate 77 corridor during the early afternoon and move into Pennsylvania for the evening rush hour. Temperatures will remain above normal, but drop 5 to 10 degrees from Sunday`s readings.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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While low pressure shifts north over Lake Huron Monday night, its cold front should race to the east. Heaviest rainfall should have moved out of the region by the early morning hours. Overall rainfall totals have come in slightly lower on 12Z model runs, but rain is still expected to be around an inch at most locations. Instability along the front is lacking, and have kept any mention of thunder out of the forecast. Showers Tuesday and Tuesday night will be of a scattered nature from an upper low remaining over the northern Great Lakes. The low itself begins making eastward progress Wednesday, and have added some likely pops along the Interstate 80 corridor Wednesday afternoon. Colder air will continue to enter the forecast area, with temperatures near normal Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wednesday should be the coldest day of the week.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The chance for showers will come to an end late Wednesday night as the upper low moves east. With temperatures continuing to cool off, cannot rule out a couple of snowflakes across Garrett or Preston counties. Thursday and Friday should remain cool and dry. While the ECMWF and GFS have general agreement of low pressure dragging a cold front to the area for the weekend, the models have shown little consistency in the speed of the front and when any precipitation would arrive. Have stuck close to the Superblend for this portion of the forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue through tonight as high pressure departs. Ceilings continue to lower and rain arrives in Ohio after 12Z, possibly starting at PIT/HLG by the end of the TAF period. Southerly wind will back towards the southeast tonight. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through at least Monday night in widespread rain and low ceilings. Periodic restrictions should continue through Wed with an upper trough.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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