Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222322 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE. LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z. CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW. .AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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