Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271743 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 143 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW STRATUS EDGE NEARING THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURE READINGS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. ATMOSHPERE APPEARS TOO STABLE TO GENERATE EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK THURSDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...AND A STRONG WARMING SHOULD OCCUR UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THE STRONG WARMING ALONG THE SOUTH WILL FUEL ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS THURSDAY WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT...AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW PRESSURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PLAINS YESTERDAY...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY CLIPS THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF OUR LOCAL COUNTIES WITH MUCH LESS INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE LOW TRACKING MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AS THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A REASONABLE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN TRACK...SO OPTED TO ADJUST INHERITED POPS BY LEANING LARGELY ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE GEFS. THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/SUPERBLEND...WITH EC ENSEMBLE DATA INCORPORATED AS WELL AS THE ECS TEMPERATURES SEEMED MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED HEIGHTS/ANOMALIES. IF MODELS TREND FARTHER SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS MAY END UP STAYING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STUBBORN LOW CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD EROSION AND THE EDGE HAS REMAINED STAGNANT NEAR KPIT. EXPECT THIS EDGE TO SHIFT SOME THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WHILE GRADUALLY LIFTING. EARLY THURSDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAY PERHAPS LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER EASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. TAX .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KPBZ RADAR HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PARTS ON ORDER...THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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