Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 092231 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 531 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold northwest flow will continue a few bands of snow showers into Saturday. Low pressure will bring accumulating snow Sunday, mixing with and changing to rain later Sunday night and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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530pm update...main concern is the lake band which has developed over Northeast Ohio and is moving southeastward across portions of Northwest Pennsylvania. Current radar imagery is indicating embedded squalls within this band, which are dumping quick accumulations of snow. Have increased PoPs and snow numbers in the area of this band and by using latest hires guidance, have forecast its movement location through the evening. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires guidance. Previous discussion follows... An approaching shortwave later tonight, will again turn the flow more west to southwest, diminishing lake enhanced snow showers. There will be a bit of an uptick in snow showers with the shortwave overnight. Have only raised snow amounts about a half inch across portions of Mercer and Venango counties mainly this afternoon and evening. No changes to temperatures, and remainder of forecast is unchanged.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will begin to move east Saturday with flow becoming westerly as weak shortwave exits. Temperatures will continue well below average. Complex low pressure will approach Sunday and move across the Great Lakes Monday. Warm advection snow will develop across the region Sunday and continue into Sunday evening, before mixing briefly with freezing rain and then changing to plain rain except for areas north of I-80 where cold air will hang in until mid morning Monday. With surface low so far west, warm air should be able to move north fairly quickly, keeping snow accumulations in check for the most part. Best estimate for now is 4-6 inches north of SR 422 in PA, with only an inch or two across Pittsburgh. Areas south of Pittsburgh will have little in the way of accumulation. Some light icing possible mainly in the ridges for a time Sunday night. Warm advection will push temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s Monday before a cold front drops temperatures back toward normal in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main feature will be an arctic cold front Tuesday night crossing east of the ridges early Wednesday. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below average through late week. While snow showers will be scattered mainly across the north, no significant snow is expected. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad upper troughing maintain mainly MVFR conditions through Saturday morning for most ports. Scattered snow showers are also expected through the evening, though the best chance of local IFR conditions should be N of I 80 where some lake enhancement should occur. Gusty W winds should also persist this afternoon with a tight pressure gradient, before diminishing this evening. Conditions should improve to VFR by Saturday afternoon as high pressure briefly builds in. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely Sunday and Monday, and again Wednesday, with crossing areas of low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight EST tonight FOR PAZ007. WV...None. && $$

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