Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220644 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 244 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.. EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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