Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290818 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 418 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN PA THIS MORNING...AS THE SURFACE REFLEXION DRIFTS ACROSS WESTERN PA. THIS WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE COOLER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH CLOUDS...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS... TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN PA. HUNG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY FOR A PORTION OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE REST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP THEIR ONSET. TEMPERATURE INCREASES SATURDAY...AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN...DIFFERENCES IN OPERATIONAL MODEL DATA WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL RELY ON THE SUPERBLEND HERE TO ATTEMPT TO OVERCOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. A DRY PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/DEPTH OF A DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY ON...AS A WESTERN RIDGE ELICITS A RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM. CHANCE POPS APPEAR WISE FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. USED SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM AS WELL. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR S OF PIT SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRI MRNG AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THE RGN...AND LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME MIXING BY AFTN SHOULD RETURN MOST PORTS TO MVFR CIGS...WITH A CROSSING UPR TROF SHOULD MAINTAINING THE CLOUD COVER. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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