Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271341 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 941 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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SURFACE FRONT HAS HUNG UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK WAVE PASSING WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS IS SLOWLY ERODING THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RECENT LOOPS OF THE 1 MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE NORTHERN EDGE. EXPECT BY MIDDAY AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS THURSDAY WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT...AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW PRESSURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PLAINS YESTERDAY...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY CLIPS THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF OUR LOCAL COUNTIES WITH MUCH LESS INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE LOW TRACKING MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AS THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A REASONABLE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN TRACK...SO OPTED TO ADJUST INHERITED POPS BY LEANING LARGELY ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE GEFS. THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/SUPERBLEND...WITH EC ENSEMBLE DATA INCORPORATED AS WELL AS THE ECS TEMPERATURES SEEMED MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED HEIGHTS/ANOMALIES. IF MODELS TREND FARTHER SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS MAY END UP STAYING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW STRATUS SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION FROM THE NORTH AS DRY AIR SLOWLY CREEPS IN. THIS DRYING AND LIFTING OF CIGS WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTS OF MGW/ZZV...BUT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO MVFR. EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO BE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER EASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. TAX .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KPBZ RADAR HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PARTS ON ORDER...THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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