Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222150 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 450 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm conditions are expected until the passage of a cold front tonight. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 450pm update...made some very minor adjustments to PoPs in response to latest radar trends and hires model guidance. Overnight temperatures were modified as well. Previous discussion... Line of showers associated with a wave out ahead of the cold front will slowly make progress toward the region. Most, if not all, of the model guidance has slowed the onset of precipitation significantly - resulting in a complete reconstruction of PoPs and timing. This has been done based on the HRRR, with the front not expected to make full passage across the upper Ohio Valley until Tuesday morning. Until this time, strong warm advection will continue, with a non diurnal trend forecast. Some cooling QPF amounts still look reasonable, with the combination of recent snow melt and rainfall tonight not likely to pose many hydrologic issues outside of where some ice jam movement is possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low over Missouri will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes through Tuesday. Expect high temperatures Tuesday to be realized early as cold advection brings values down through the afternoon. Some insolation may slow this downturn in temps, but generally anticipate cooling values with an eventual changeover to snow. Model profiles do not maintain saturation deep enough into the snow growth zone for very long, outside of any upslope later Tuesday evening/night, so any snow accumulation will be light or negligible with the warmth of the last couple of days. Northwesterly flow will maintain snow chances, again with the likelihood best in the terrain, through Wednesday before high pressure builds overhead for the remainder of the period. Expect seasonable temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Building high pressure in advance of another low emerging over the Plains is likely to dry and warm conditions before rain chances return for next weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will reign this afternoon and early evening as we are now firmly in the warm sector of the approaching system. As this system nears, a tightening gradient will bring llws areawide, beginning near 00z and persisting until daybreak Tuesday. Showers associated with the front will follow closely behind, lowering ceilings toward MVFR west to east in the overnight hours. Can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder as the main line of showers passes tonight, but this activity should be too limited for inclusion at this time. Restrictions will likely only last a few hours before increased mixing after daybreak Tuesday lifts ceilings. This mixing will bring the stronger winds to the surface, leading to gusty southwest winds, during Tuesday. .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential will continue until high pressure builds on Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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