Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 311551 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1151 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SHORTWAVE IS EXITING EAST AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP TOWARD I-80. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH WILL MIX OUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN LINE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SE...DOWN SLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREA WIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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