Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262140 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 540 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 540pm update...showers had developed ahead of weak shortwave, but are finding it hard to maintain structure as warm air aloft is providing a cap. With sunset, expect any lingering activity to dissipate. Another shortwave is expected to cross Ohio later this evening and then Western Pennsylvania overnight. Latest models are showing some scattered development with this energy, however 18z models seem to be overdoing precipitation with this feature. Looking closer at latest mesoanalysis from SPC, the most unstable air remains well to our southwest where this afternoon`s MCS set it course toward. Additionally, atmospheric trends are showing a slow stabilization over the area, which will only be increased with dusk. Have limited pop coverage overnight and kept them in the slight chance range. Also adjusted cloud cover and modified temperatures with the latest hires numbers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Diurnal chances for showers/storms can be expected each day with daytime heating but there does not appear to be any significant features to focus activity until late on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prevailing VFR is anticipated through the period, expect where a shower or thunderstorm passes over a taf location this afternoon and again on friday. At this point, have only maintained vicinity thunderstorms in KLBE, KFKL, and KDUJ where the latest hi res model guidance suggests convection could develop this afternoon. Convective complex currently approaching western Ohio is progged to slide southward, weakening on it`s northern flank. However, added vicinity shower to ZZV to cover anything that may develop briefly ahead of this system. Moistening low levels may support the development of some fog toward sunrise tomorrow depending on wind speed. Both the LAMP and the experimental HREF suggest ceiling restrictions may be possible north of PIT, so IFR conditions were introduced in those terminals. Otherwise, VFR will return Friday. While there still may be a chance for a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, the building ridge leaves little confidence for a vcsh or vcts mention at this time. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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