Area Forecast Discussion
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904 FXUS61 KPBZ 270136 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 936 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass east of the area this evening with drier weather returning in its wake. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers along the front have really waned drastically since the last update as diurnal instability and prefrontal showers have managed to sap all the available instability. PoPs were thus lowered or removed virtually across the entire CWA save for Tucker County with this update. Post-frontal dry advection is in full force across Ohio already, and overnight mixing profiles suggest that wind gusts should bring dry air into the rest of the CWA fairly efficiently. This should preclude much fog development and result in clear skies through the day on Tuesday across the entire area. While colder air will be moving in, a deep mixing profile and abundant sunshine will keep afternoon highs at rather seasonable levels. Fries && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Temperature advection will be quickly neutralized on Tuesday, with warm advection resuming on the southeastern flank of Great Lakes low pressure. As such, temperatures were forecast near the seasonal averages. The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the Upper Ohio during the mid week period. As models are coming into more consistent depictions, confidence in the forecast of chance/scattered shower weather with sub-average temperature is improving. Few changes were made to the prognosis for this period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The aforementioned upper low is projected to fill/lift northeastward by next weekend with zonal flow resuming over the Upper Ohio Region. Predominately dry weather is thus forecast with seasonal temperature. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any MVFR restrictions in stratus this evening should be short- lived as a cold front completes its passage across most of the region and brings in much drier air. Mid/high level clouds will then continue for a few hours before skies clear. The one location that is expected to have restrictions after midnight is MGW, where the cold front may linger through the overnight hours. Although stratus will lift, fog is expected to develop at MGW with relatively light winds. By early afternoon on Tuesday, wind gusts up to 20 kts are expected at all terminals, with clear skies continuing through the day. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper-level low pressure will settle into the Great Lakes region through the week. Flight restrictions will be increasingly likely beginning Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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