Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300533 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALONG A LINE THROUGH COLUMBUS AND INTO OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET STREAK. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO UNDERWHELM...THESE MODEST FEATURES ALONE ARE ENOUGH TO PROLONG THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND DEPARTS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OUT. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY COMES A BIT OF A TRANSITION AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK MESOSCALE IMPULSES ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH THE EVENING. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING OVER OHIO. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MOST TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK...EXCEPT PERHAPS ZZV AND FKL. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE FLIRT AGAIN WITH EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. TAX OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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