Area Forecast Discussion
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901 FXUS61 KPBZ 131730 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1230 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AFFECTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HI- RES MODELS HINT THAT THE MOST FAVORED BAND LOCATIONS WILL EDGE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...SO TRIED TO TREND THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHSN BEGIN TO BLOOM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS EFFICIENT WITH TIME AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. A PORTION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 16Z AND EXPECT TO ALLOW THAT TO OCCUR. CL && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE... WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST ORGANIZED BAND EXTENDS THROUGH BVI/PIT AT THE MOMENT BUT EXPECT ITS POSITION TO WOBBLE A BIT. MORE DISORGANIZED SHSN ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHSN...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE...OR EVEN LIFR CLOSER TO I-80. GUSTY WNW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. BY THIS EVENING...SHSN COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY. EXPECT CIGS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT FROM PIT ON SOUTH AT LEAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING OVER ANY REMAINING STRATUS. CL .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021- 509>514. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510- 512>514. && $$

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