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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182241
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A CDFNT CONTS TO SINK SWD ACRS SRN PA INTO SRN OH. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
HAVE BEEN DMNSHG IN INTENSITY AND COVG AS INSTBY AND PWATS DCRS
ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO DATA. SCT SHWRS AND TSTSM WL CONT INTO
ERLY THIS EVE BEFORE ACTIVITY DMNSHS AND MOVES OUT OVRNGT. COULD
BE SOME PTCHY FOG AS WELL ESP S OF PIT BUT WL NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
HIGH PRES BLDS IN WED WITH CLRG SKIES AND BLO SEASONAL AVG TEMPS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF/NAM AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BE IN A RELATIVELY DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THIS PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE RIDGES ON FRIDAY IS THE EXCEPTION...AS SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.

FOR TEMPS...FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN A MAV/MET
BLEND ON THURSDAY...CONSIDERING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS.  HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.

CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. IN
THUNDERSTORMS...CIGS/VIS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING NEAR
KZZV...KHLWG...AND ESPECIALLY KMGW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. SKIES
SEEMS LIKELY TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$