Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161555 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1155 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... After a cool start to the week, building high pressure will result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Just a few isolated showers remain from this morning`s activity as the upper-level trough swings through. The axis will shift east of the area later today, effectively ending any lingering precipitation and working to erode remnant cloud cover. Temperatures are expected to average 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal levels in cold advection. Tonight, high pressure building at the surface will lead to clear sky and calming winds. Temperatures will crater about 5 to 10 degrees below normals, resulting in areas of frost. Some locations could see below freezing readings, but most of these will be in the valleys of the high terrain and across the north, where the growing season has already ended. Decided to go with a Frost Advisory for the rest of the zones where the growing season remains, but is winding down.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will remain firmly entrenched over the area through the middle of the week, ensuring a dry forecast. After the cool start Tuesday morning, daytime temperatures will begin to moderate under mostly sunny skies. Brief ridging through Wednesday will be stunted by a system passing well to our north Thursday. This system will have little impact to our area, with only a few additional clouds as a result.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad high pressure over much of the Ern CONUS will maintain dry and gradually warming weather through the period. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low end VFR, to occasional MVFR stratocu, will persist with an approaching upper trough and in cool NW flow off the Great Lakes. Building high pressure will diminish wind and return VFR as Monday aftn progresses. .Outlook... No widespread restrictions are expected under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075. WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509-510.
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