Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 051047 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 547 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WITH 545AM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND...AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE IN FACT FILLED BACK IN SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. MADE MINOR INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANGE WAS QUITE SMALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS A BIT RAGGED ON RADAR...WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHICH LOCATIONS MAY BE DONE WITH SNOW AND WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. LINE EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER AND NEW PHILADELPHIA HAS LIKELY SEEN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW THEY WILL RECEIVE. SNOW REMAINS MORE INTERMITTENT FROM INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH INTO ZANESVILLE. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT BACK EDGE OF SNOW WOULD MOVE EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THEN EASE BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE KEPT THIS TREND IN FORECAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE NAM/HRRR. RADAR RETURNS REMAIN QUITE HEALTHY FROM MORGANTOWN TO UNIONTOWN...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STILL...AN OVERALL TREND OF DIMINISHING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS MOST NOTICEABLE WITH A CURRENT DEWPOINT OF 3 AT FRANKLIN WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER MILD WEATHER YESTERDAY...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY. A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/MD...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET TOWARDS ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SET A FEW MORE RECORDS. WITH WINDS GOING CALM...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND GEFS GUIDANCE, && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926. MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960. ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978. PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901. MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND 1972. ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ021-023-029-031-073>075. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012- 021>023-041. && $$

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