Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011912 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 312 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CUMULUS FIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS...THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM MERCER TO INDIANA WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS. DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ALONG THIS CORRIDOR CONSIDERING THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS WELL AS TWENTY DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT WILL MENTION SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPRINKLES INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THAT AREA. ALL LOCATIONS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FULLY DRY. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE BETTER CHANCE OF WINDS GOING CALM ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EVERYWHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...HIGHS SHOULD INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS). ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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