Area Forecast Discussion
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641 FXUS61 KPBZ 281607 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1207 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mild under high pressure this afternoon, with unsettled but warm weather expected for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Low dew points with seasonably warm temperatures will continue under high pressure through the afternoon. Tonight a frontal boundary will return north as a warm front, with showers and thunderstorms developing, especially later tonight as a shortwave races east along the front. POPs look to increase after midnight with best mid level support along the boundary. Most models push the warm front north toward the New York and Pennsylvania border where it stalls late day Saturday. Have trended forecast in this direction, but confidence is not exceptionally high. SPC has maintained a marginal risk of severe, but with better dynamics well west of region through Saturday, for now think severe threat not high enough to mention. Rising dew points will help keep temperatures mild tonight, with warming behind the front Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Warm front should remain near the New York border through the period as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on thunderstorms through the period, with warm and more humid conditions developing under the ridge aloft.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Eastern ridge begins to break down on Monday, as deep upper level system spins northward from the plains/Midwest on Sunday, toward the Great Lakes by Monday night. The 500 low will eventually move across Southern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly under the 500 low and swing the occluded front through the Upper Ohio Valley late Monday/Monday night. This will increase the risk for showers and storms. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected for this afternoon under high pressure, with high clouds and light winds becoming more southerly with time. Moisture increases after 00Z as a warm front lifts back north. Clouds will lower with time, with MVFR ceilings showing up northwest of PIT by sunrise. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected as well, with thunder chances too low to include yet, but brief IFR visibilities are possible late tonight. .Outlook... Occasional restrictions are possible this weekend along a stalled frontal boundary. Better restriction chances arrive with a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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