Area Forecast Discussion
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802 FXUS61 KPBZ 261435 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1035 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No major updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on track. Previous... A weak lead shortwave is spawning some showers in lee of Lake Erie early this morning. Another, albeit deeper trough is projected across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Improved lapse rates and falling convective thresholds under cooling mid levels all support escalating precip probability with the surface reinforcing front, but with inhibitions via moisture paucity. No major changes were thus needed to the ongoing forecast of eventual scattered showers and a slight thunderstorm chance with more numerous convection over the I 80 corridor. Cold advection will hold temperatures about 10 degrees under the averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold troughing will persist through Tuesday but changes are projected to ensue thereafter with moderating temperatures as flow aloft flattens/ridges in response to a trough digging across Western Canada. Warmth and humidity are forecast to enhance via southerly boundary layer flow as that trough progresses over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, and precip chances escalate as ejected energy slides over the Lakes and spawns convection by Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned trough/associated cold front is projected across the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions next weekend. Precip is thus likely but temperature in the wake of the system is expected to remain near the seasonal averages given the lack of amplitude in the progged flow pattern. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR forecast through the period. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Currently only have enough confidence to include vicinity. Will keep the risk for thunder at FKL and DUJ. For the ports south of PIT, will not have any mention of precip. Winds will increase by late morning or early afternoon as mixing heights rise. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible. .OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are possible with showers and scattered storms Tuesday with the passage of the upper trough axis. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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