Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 302330 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE AS SCT SHWRS CONT WITH UPR LOW PRES AND SFC CDFNT MOVG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER. DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR DESTABILIZATION. THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE. STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35 KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE. REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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