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002 FXUS61 KPBZ 261028 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 628 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with the passage of cold front today. More seasonable temperatures are expected for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Deepening trough over the Great Lakes will push a cold front, currently analyzed over eastern Indiana, across the Upper Ohio valley this afternoon. Model consensus on timing is relatively good between the deterministic models and the hi res short term guidance. As such, very little adjustment was needed to categorical probabilities with strengthening support for thunderstorms as the boundary approaches southwestern PA/northern WV. This will be where surface instability is likely to be the highest based on the boundary`s timing, and less cloud cover. The NAM is the most robust with it`s CAPE/dewpoints compared to other model guidance, including the RAP and HRRR soundings, which it tends to overdue in most convective scenarios. However, with deep layer shear present and at least modest cape of 500j/kg, some strong to severe storms may be possible which is supported by the spc marginal risk over the aforementioned region. Strong southerly flow and sunshine in advance of the boundary should allow for temperatures to warm above seasonal averages this afternoon followed by normal low temperatures with the fronts passage progged to be east of the ridges by midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Temperature advection will be rather weak on Tuesday with southwesterly flow expected aloft with the upper trough still situated over the northern Great Lakes and high pressure present at the surface. Thus, temperatures were forecast just below seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Most of this period will be dominated by the closed upper low...which will dive from Michigan into the central Ohio Valley by Thursday and linger as a cutoff through at least Friday. Models are beginning to converge on this scenario, with the lagging GFS finally coming around. As such, mostly chance PoPs were maintained through the remainder of the work week for scattered showers. Timing of shortwaves around the upper low remains tricky at this distance. Given the upper low representing a pattern change, felt the SuperBlend temperatures were a bit too high and knocked them back a couple of degrees early on, keeping daytime values a bit below climatology. The upper low should begin to lift out by next weekend as midlevel heights build over the lower Ohio Valley. This will bring dry weather back by Sunday, as well as allow temperatures to recover back to seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at the start of the TAF period with only some high clouds. MVFR clouds hugging the ridges to our east may still build into DUJ over the next hour or two, and then mix out after sunrise. A cold front, preceded by a warm front, will cross during the afternoon and early evening hours. A short period of MVFR or even IFR visibilities in showers or thunderstorms is expected, but the exact timing of restrictions is still up in the air. Continued to use a period of VCTS at most locations for now. Some of the storms may be strong, with heavy rain and gusty winds. General wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible during the afternoon as well. Scattered showers and MVFR ceilings may linger for a few hours behind the front, until drier air sweeps in and allows skies to clear overnight. Expect enough mixing to preclude much fog after midnight. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restriction is expected by Wednesday as upper level low pressure settles into the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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