Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021943 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 343 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA AS NE WIND FUNNELS IN DRIER AIR. ITS STILL A TOUGH CALL HOW FAR PARTIAL CLEARING GETS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS IT REACHING THE I-80 VICINITY. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. FARTHER SOUTH...SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS STAYING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR CURRENT READINGS...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORKS. WITH THE OVERCAST SKY...TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 60F. THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR PITTSBURGH IS 51 AND WE ARE ALREADY AT 57 WHICH MEANS ITS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR. AS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...AND WEAK POCKETS OF DCVA RIDING NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN WV AND WRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN. CLOSED UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SLOWLY TRUDGE EASTWARD...BEFORE WEAKENING AND CROSSING THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. NAM/GFS TRY TO MOVE THE LOW CENTER A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER...WHICH IS PREFERABLE IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN. STILL EXPECT MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE RIDGES...AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS MOST MOISTURE LOCKED UP THERE. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO MIDLEVEL RIPPLES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. DID REDUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT LOOKS DELAYED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AREAWIDE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON BACK OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE LACK OF A COHERENT TRIGGER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY WEST OF THE RIDGES. WEAK UPSLOPING WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A DAMMING LOOK TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND/TEMP PROFILES. FEWER CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL POINT TO A WARMING TREND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROP OF THE JET AXIS AND A BETTER CHANCE THE STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KYNG TO NEAR KBFD...WITH DRY AIR NORTH OF THIS LINE AIDING IN SLOW SOUTHWARD EROSION OF THE OVERCAST DECK. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD ONLY A BIT BEFORE WIND DIRECTION TURNS TO THE EAST AND REINFORCES THE STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THERE IS LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS NOT CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RESUMING MVFR-IFR CEILING AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. GIVEN THE STAGNANT AIRMASS AND VEERING WIND...THIS FORECAST WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC AT MANY SITES. AS ESELY WIND INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLOUD HEIGHT OF ANY OVERNIGHT STRATUS/STRATOCU SHOULD INCREASE ACCORDINGLY TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS. IN SHORT...MOST TERMINALS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KFKL/ ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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