Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290421 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1221 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Showers northeast of PIT continue to dissipate as the atmosphere stabilizes. Otherwise, dry weather is expceted overnight. Increased moisture in southerly flow along with a crossing shortwave should result in increased shower and thunderstorm coverage by this afternoon compared to recent days. Temperatures are expected to be around 10 degrees above the seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms should taper off Sunday night as the trough axis crosses. Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for Memorial Day and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are coming in better agreement that an upper level trough and associated cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday and have bumped up pops slightly. However, the ECMWF is more progressive with pushing precipitation to the east by late Friday, while the GFS and GEFS continue the chance of showers in Saturday. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend toward the seasonal average by the weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected for most ports through the operational TAF period as a ridge of high pressure remains in place. Light surface flow and no change in air mass will mean similar conditions overnight as 24 hours ago. Not expecting fog to develop...save for the few locations where rain managed to fall over the airfield...KLBE and KFKL. Have mentioned MVFR visibility restrictions for these two locations. Thunderstorm coverage should increase Sunday afternoon with a passing shortwave trough...so carrying VCTS in most TAFs. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front will approach the region late Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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