Area Forecast Discussion
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733 FXUS61 KPBZ 060217 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 917 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Tuesday. A Thursday cold front will return snow shower chances and much colder temperatures for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The erosion of low clouds from the south continues to be evident from central Ohio toward the PA line. This has been coincident with subsidence and a loss of the northerly component of the low level flow. As the evening goes on, low clouds will likely further erode all the while high clouds ahead of the next system to impact the area on Tuesday arrive from the south. The net result will still be mostly cloudy skies for many areas through the night, except from Pittsburgh northward where the slow encroachment of high clouds may take a tad longer than the erosion of the low clouds later tonight. Fries Previous discussion follows for the system that arrives on Tuesday...As the high exits late tonight, a shortwave and associated weak surface low is progged to track from the Mississippi Valley region, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley region Tuesday. Deep layer moisture, ascent and low level jet support should result in widespread rain across much of the region. With southeast upslope flow, cold air is expected to remain across the higher terrain SE of PIT, where a winter weather advisory has been issued to highlight a freezing rain threat. With the low level jet, gusty winds are also expected in the higher terrain. The cold temperatures should persist until the flow veers to the southwest Tuesday evening, and precipitation exits. Areas toward DUJ could also see a wintry mix with some light snow or ice accumulation possible, though confidence in advisory level precip in this area is lower. Included an HWO mention for this potential. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The shortwave and precip are progged to exit Tuesday night as the surface low weakens, and coastal development occurs. Ridging should return dry weather for Wednesday. A cold front is progged for a Thursday passage, with subsequent upper troughing progged across much of the eastern CONUS. Maintained high chance to likely snow shower pops for this scenario. The boundary layer flow should remain WSW preventing any lake enhancement. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees below average Wednesday, with readings 10 to 15 degrees below average for Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper troughing and cold W-WSW flow should persist across the eastern CONUS through Friday maintaining snow shower chances. A less amplified pattern is progged from the weekend through early next week, with several crossing shortwaves progged. Maintained a mention of chance pops from Saturday night through early next week. Much below average temperatures are expected to moderate with the less amplified pattern by early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Building high pressure is expected to alleviate MVFR cigs this evening and maintain VFR for the night. Condition deterioration will be quickly Tuesday morning, as low pressure spreads precip over the region. .OUTLOOK... A strong cold front will bring more restrictions by Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday FOR MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday FOR PAZ074-076. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday FOR WVZ512>514. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.