Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020444 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH THE WEEKEND...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS). ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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