Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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192 FXUS61 KPBZ 051806 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 206 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS PRESENT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES. STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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