Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281031 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 631 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorm chances will increase today as warmth and humidity fuel a crossing disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No major changes were needed for the dawn update as warm, moist air has enfiltrated the Upper Ohio Region under broad upper high pressure. Another in series of shortwaves across the northern periphery of the Eastern CONUS ridge should support some afternoon storms, although coverage is blurry given the various model depictions. For now, have increased POPs mainly over areas north of I 70 where the ridge and mid level temperatures show weakness, but have limited the numbers to the "scattered/chance" category given weak flow and questionable boundary focus. Convection should fade with the night, but will not eliminate POPS entirely despite the stabilized boundary layer as shortwave energy extending from Canadian low pressure is progged to continue carving the aforementioned ridge perimeter. Near-term temperatures nearly 10 degrees above the averages are again anticipated with the more humid airmass.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure is forecast to dig over Eastern Canada, with trough extension over the Northeast U.S. by Monday morning. The associated surface front may continue to provide focus for diurnally-enhanced convection over southern zones on Monday, but building surface high under northwest flow should suppress precip by Tuesday. The POP forecast has been adjusted for that eventuality, and for small rain potential with the reinforcing front on Wednesday. Short term temperature will be in decline as an Eastern CONUS trough develops. These were forecast near, or a couple degrees under the averages using SuperBlend guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Eastern CONUS upper troughing will result in cooler Upper Ohio weather until the ridge rebuilds next weekend. Temperatures a few degrees under the averages, with moderation by Saturday, and minimal POPs were forecast using Superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ridging should maintain VFR conditions through the first part of today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening with the approach of a weak cold front. Will include a VCTS mention in the TAFs for now for the most likely time of occurrence. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are possible Monday mainly S of PIT as the front completes its passage, and again with another crossing front Wednesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/07

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