Area Forecast Discussion
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030 FXUS61 KPBZ 261514 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1114 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast generally remains on track as large ridge continues to build over the region. Dewpoints in the mid 60ss to 70 remain so it will still feel humid today. A small are of thunderstorms tied to a weak shortwave continue to approach western Ohio but is quickly losing support. The hrrr had these storms weakening before they reach our eastern Ohio zones but a brief shower may be possible over Muskingum or Coshocton counties. Did not think this was significant to make drastic alterations to the forecast however. Otherwise expect a warm day with values in the upper 80`s and lower 90`s across the region. Clear skies and light wind overnight should allow for temperatures to get close to average for lows. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will continue to funnel warm air across the northern periphery, i.e. the Upper Ohio region. Temperatures about 7 to 10 degrees above average may be expected into early next week. Surface high pressure will ensure dry weather for most of the weekend, with somewhat lower dewpoints until southerly flow resumes on Sunday. A Great Lakes shortwave traversing the northern flank of the aforementioned upper ridge is forecast to trigger the next rain chance on Sunday with focus via outflow or lake breeze. Confidence in that scenario is minimal at moment, so little change was completed for that portion of the forecast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave energy and tropical encroachment on the Southeastern Coast is progged to flatten flow across the northern tier of the CONUS next week. The disturbances in flow would support periodic, and diurnally-enhanced precip chances, but confidence in timing and the magnitude of the pattern change are low, so the forecast was constructed with chance PoPs and an ease away from the warmth by the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next chance for restrictions should come with the approach of a front Sunday and Monday. && .CLIMATE... So far as of today 8-26-2016 Pittsburgh International has had an average temperature of 76.0 degrees for the month of August. That is 4.3 degrees above normal. So far KPIT is tied for the 5th warmest August Current top 10 warmest August for PIT 78.7 August 1900 77.7 August 1995 76.6 August 1947 76.6 August 1918 76.0 August 1881 75.6 August 1906 75.2 August 1878 75.2 August 1937 75.1 August 1988 75.0 August 1901 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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