Area Forecast Discussion
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217 FXUS61 KPBZ 291847 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 247 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled but warm weather is expected through Sunday, with a cold front expected for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Shortwave and area of showers and storms exiting northeast late this afternoon. As east coast ridge builds overnight into Sunday, best shower chances should be across the far north where warm front should become better defined Sunday, and then stall. More humid conditions will spread north overnight, with a taste of summer on Sunday with temperatures well into the 80s along with elevated dew points.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night with continued warm and humid conditions. Ridge begins to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers and thunderstorms with FROPA. Much cooler temperatures will arrive Tuesday, with shower chances especially toward I-80 as a closed mid level low moves into eastern Canada.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A southern stream trough will begin to spread moistures north toward the region by later Wednesday, with shower chances into the weekend as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average through late week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR/IFR restrictions are expected for a brief period with thunderstorms exiting to the northeast. In addition, BVI/FKL/LBE will keep low ceilings for the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. While FKL/DUJ may manage to lift to VFR conditions briefly overnight, did not have enough confidence to include in the forecast at this time. Some scattered showers/thunderstorms will also be possible after midnight, but with no concentrated area of precipitation with the warm front to the north, did not include precipitation in TAFs at this time. Winds will veer through much of the compass through the TAF period, from the west-southwest initially to easterly winds around midnight and eventually back to south-southwest by Sunday afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a strong cold front Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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